A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Apparently, WeatherCatters aren't the only folks keeping an eye on "da' usual suspects."  The forecast of a third La Niña winter for the northern hemisphere has gotten the attention of the press who have dubbed it: "triple-dip La Niña!"

Sadly, what is being reported isn't particularly insightful.  This piece from NPR is representative:

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/12/1122259523/triple-dip-la-nina-explained-weather

As those of us facing still more drought are all too painfully aware - no amount of explanations is going to cause the rains to return . . . . . .

Such are da' conditions that prevail out west in these days . . . .

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

I tried to read that when it came out earlier this week. But I stopped when I read that

when strong winds blow warm water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the coast of South America across the equator toward Indonesia, other parts of Asia and Australia.

That causes cooler water to rise to the surface of the Pacific Ocean…

What? If I had missed the name of the reporter, I would have assumed this was the product of a committee… of geography-challenged grade schoolers! Definitely not the normal output of NPR. 🙄 😱

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of the seasons turning,

Winter is close approaching, so I suppose we should pay more careful attention to the communiques of "da' usual suspects."  They've been at it once more at the usual spot on the World Wide Web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads:  "There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023."

You can read the details, but it seems obvious that the forecast models are having some difficulty with the current La Niña episode.  It seems clear that winter in the northern hemisphere and summer in the southern hemisphere will have to cope with a La Niña that refuses to quit.

Such are da' conditions that appear to be prevailing.
Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of what is the state of the art in climate science,

Da' Usual suspects have been making relatively regular forecasts for the past few months, but they were basically the same as my last posting.  Finally, they are bold enough to claim something new is in the offing.  As usual you can read up on all da' dirt here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads:  " La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral."

Digging into the details the data for this change still isn't there - to quote: "Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the past month."  As to the forecasts well that seems even more murky - again to quote:  "For the dynamical model averages, ENSO-neutral is favored in January-March 2023, while the statistical model average shows the transition to ENSO-neutral occurs in February-April 2023. The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is split on whether La Niña or ENSO-neutral will prevail during January-March 2023. Regardless, there is higher confidence that ENSO-neutral will emerge by the Northern Hemisphere spring."

So if you trust the experts, La Niña should finally release her icy grip on the northern hemisphere sometime between this winter and spring.   However, that doesn't come with a money-back guarantee, so caveat emptor remains your best policy.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

That's a lot of verbiage to say, "We have no idea, but after it happens, we'll tell you what occurred."

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of climate phenomena (or alternatively the El Niño/La Niña soap opera.)

Da' usual suspects are still at large and released another communique a few days ago:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer."

However as is not uncommon in this soap opera, the plot line is more complex than it seems.  The first sentence of the discussion is: "Although a weak La Niña was still apparent during January, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to weaken further across the equatorial Pacific Ocean"

Nonetheless, for those of us who are sick and tired of La Niña, the second paragraph starts with:  "The most recent IRI plume predicts a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the next couple of months. The forecaster consensus is largely in agreement. ENSO-neutral is expected to prevail during the spring and early summer."

At least for those of us in the northern hemisphere, El Niño or La Niña events are of little concern during the summer months.  However, the next sentence is perhaps worth noting as a possible warning for next autumn and winter: "There are increasing chances of El Niño at longer forecast horizons, though uncertainty remains high because of the spring prediction barrier, which typically is associated with lower forecast accuracy."

. . . .For the moment however, whether an El Niño or the Second Coming is a more likely outcome in the near future is left as an exercise for the reader to . . . . . resolve!?!!?!??  . . . . . 

Cheers, Edouard 

[Blicj11]

After looking through the article, and reading Edouard's synopsis, I still have no idea what it means. Hahaha. Nevertheless, I still plan on getting up in the morning and carrying on.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of sea-surface temperatures,

After what has seemed like forever, da' usual suspects have pronounced that La Niña is finally over.  Here is all the gory details:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads: "La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023. "

However, like the last communique, there are threats that El Niño is waiting in the wings.  To quote from the forecast discussion: "The most recent IRI plume favors ENSO-neutral to continue through the spring, with El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall. In contrast, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral through summer 2023, with elevated chances of El Niño developing afterwards. The smaller chances of El Niño relative to the model predictions are primarily because ENSO forecasts made during the spring are less accurate, and also the tropical Pacific atmosphere is still fairly consistent with a cool/La Niña-like state. However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño and will be closely monitored."

It is no longer clear how El Niño or La Niña affect the climate given that global warming appears to be suspiciously out of control.  However, I have long suspected that the transitions between these states could have something to do with the manifestation of atmospheric river events like those which have been pounding the west coast of the United States.

So, for better or worse, I do monitor these reports.  It is a little better than a crystal ball.  the operative word is - little!

Cheers,  Edouard

[Blicj11]

Since the recent atmospheric rivers impacting the western United States are aimed directly at my house, I say, keep 'em coming. To steal Tesco's slogan, "Every little helps." Or, in American English, "Every little bit helps."

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Regrettably, da' usual suspects remain at large and have released yet another communique.  As usual you can read up on da' dirt at this URL:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis basically summarizes the situation: "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023."

The key issue is described in the first paragraph:  "During the last month, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) became more prominent in the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was 0.0°C, but the Niño1+2 index value was +2.7°C, indicating significant warming along the South American coast. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures also increased over the past month, reflecting the dominance of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean."

So in the face of all the sea surface warming, an  El Niño Watch has been issued.  The interaction between El Niño and progressive climate change is difficult to grasp.  In Northern California, El Niño events used to be welcome because they usually brought above normal rainfall.  However, recent El Niño events have brought the opposite - drought.

So whatever has been your experience, we are now warned that an El Niño may be on our way and we will just have cope with it as best we can.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects are still at it and released another communique.  As usual you can get all the gory details at the usual location on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is basically a more detailed version of my subject line: A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The discussion doesn't mention what has been in some weather headlines: that sea surface temperatures have been detected to be unusually warm for the season.  There is some concern that this another manifestation of global warming.  However, the second paragraph clearly displays a wide range of possibilities as quoted here:

The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance).

Anyone that has been effected by El Niño in the past might want to consult this Wikipedia article on past events:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

From that article, here are the recent El Niño events:  Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, and 2018–19

At Canebas weather station which has been up since 2009, El Niño years have tended to be normal to above normal rainfall.  However, as the old saying goes: "your mileage may vary."

As usual, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . . . .

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Weather Channel has posted their expectations on how El Niño might effect the summer weather in the United States:

https://weather.com/safety/heat/news/2023-05-16-summer-temperature-outlook

The effects on the temperatures seemed a bit curious and interesting.

Cheers, Edouard

P.S. I never bothered to watch the video itself.  I got all I was curious about from the diagrams.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and there is yet another communique from da' usual suspects.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

Not much has changed from last month.  Instead their confidence about how this El Niño will unfold is increasing.  The key punch-line is: At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C).

The report has gotten the attention of the press.  For example, the Weather Channel ran this piece:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-06-08-el-nino-has-developed

So whatever an El Niño does to your weather, you might start planning for it assuming there is anything you can do to prepare!

Edouard

[Blicj11]

So whatever an El Niño does to your weather, you might start planning for it assuming there is anything you can do to prepare!

So whatever it did this past winter, I vote for a repeat.

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought sufferers,

So whatever it did this past winter, I vote for a repeat.

You won't get any disagreement from me!

I have been attempting to see if there is any relationship between El Niño, La Niña, and abundant rainfall.  Here are the relevant Wikipedia articles with the years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a

Comparing that to my data it seems like the most abundant rainfall happens during a transition like La Niña ending this year.  So next year might not be the best for the West.  However, we won't find out until we get there!

Cheers, Edouard