Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?  (Read 8577 times)

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #45 on: November 20, 2020, 06:36:25 pm »
I hope you don't mind if I quote you.

Hahaha, quote away!
Blick


elagache

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La Niña! weakening by spring? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #46 on: December 16, 2020, 12:13:07 am »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is yet another update on the El Niño or La Niña situation:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis provides the key info: "La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June)"

The discussion proposes that we are going to experience a "moderate" La Niña event.  Alas, at least in Northern California, La Niña is behaving very differently than in past events and our extreme drought is only getting worse. 

Alas, such are da' conditions that thus far prevail, . . . . . .

Oh well, Edouard 

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #47 on: December 22, 2020, 10:02:28 pm »
Thanks for sharing. Is till don't know hat it means, other than the western US is drier then dry.
Blick


elagache

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La Niña down but not out. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2021, 11:33:31 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The El Niño / La Niña soap opera has been continuing without any significant change the plot for this winter.  There is another update today:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows:  " There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June)."

As you can read in the diagnostic discussion, the indicators have been waffling during winter.   La Niña conditions have diminished in some oceans but not others.  The expectation remains that conditions will shift to so-called ENSO-Neutral before the start of summer.  Alas for those of us who appear to suffering from drought as a result of La Niña, that would be too late to affect the winter rainy season.

So, as seems to be all to common these days:

Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2021, 11:58:17 pm »
Thanks for the summary. All I know is we got a lot of snow in February and are still in very dangerous drought conditions. Snow pack is about 2/3 of normal.
Blick