A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It may be a new year, but Da' Usual Suspects are still at it.  As is their tradition, they have issued another communique on the second Thursday of the month.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance)."

What is meant by "several seasons" is a bit baffling to me.  At most it could mean only 2 seasons: winter and spring.

The discussion no longer mentions a strong El Niño.  Indeed a sentence in the second paragraph reads: "The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024."  Also to be found in the second paragraph is some wishful forecasting at least in my opinion:  "There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral."

It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.

It's clear to me. They are saying the weather will either be warmer and drier, colder and wetter, or about the same as normal. Unless it isn't. 

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat commentators on weather forecasting technology,

It's clear to me. They are saying the weather will either be warmer and drier, colder and wetter, or about the same as normal. Unless it isn't. 

In other words . . . . It is as clear as MUD!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and we have the latest pronouncements from da' usual suspects.  You can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)."

The details really don't add much.  Without having much confidence, the expectation is that we will yo-yo from El Niño to La Niña as this year unfolds.

Take it for whatever it is worth (and mostly likely - it isn't much!  )

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

I think they got the year right, have to wait till 2025 to confirm everything else.
These Niña/o things get so messed up coming across the Rockies!

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and we have the latest pronouncements from da' usual suspects.  You can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

This month the plot thickens a bit.  For starters the  ENSO Alert System Status is:  "El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch."  What would appear to be contradiction is precisely what thickens the plot.

The synopsis reads: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). "

The Weather Channel has picked up on this and has piece written more with the mere mortal in mind:

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-03-14-el-nino-la-nina-forecast-march-update-noaa

It summarizes the observations and explains some of the ramifications of a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña.

The key part of the discussion from da' usual suspects is as follows:

"The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events."

As usual, exactly what all of this means . . . . ?  As X-Air points out, the only certain way to find out is to live through the next year - assuming of course it isn't interrupted by the Second Coming!

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summertime isn't a particularly important season for the El Niño or La Niña soap opera, but yesterday there is yet another communique from da' usual suspects.  As usual, you can read all about at the usual address on the World Wide Web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis really says it all:  "ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January). "

What has changed is the timing of La Niña.  Now the forecast is that La Niña will be "fashionably late" ^*

As usual, such proclamations should be taken with a reasonably large grain of salt ^**

Edouard

^*    All the potential male chauvinist hints being implied but most definitely not spoken lest we might face the ire of the various SWMBOs in the audience!  

^**    Except of course for those on sodium-restricted diets!   

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and da' usual suspects remain at large.  They managed to sneak in another communique when I wasn't looking.  Nonetheless, you can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows:  "ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January)."

It is worth noting that compared to July, the onset of La Niña has further been delayed by one month and the confidence in this has decreased by 4%.

The discussion provides some insights suggesting the reason for the delay:  "The IRI plume indicates that Niño-3.4 is most likely to be below La Niña thresholds for four overlapping seasons, from September-November 2024 through December 2024 - February 2025. Based on updated guidance and recent observations, the forecast team predicts nearly equal chances for ENSO-neutral and La Niña in August-October 2024, with higher odds for La Niña in September-November. Although the rate of SST cooling has been slower than previously anticipated, below-average subsurface temperatures and low-level easterly wind anomalies remain conducive to La Niña development in the coming months."

While it is difficult to make sense of the technical jargon, there are clear hints of the climatic spectre threatening all of us: greenhouse gas induced global warming.  So while it is still very early to worry about winter 2024-25 (in the northern hemisphere,) there is clearly more uncertainty than in the past.

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Autumn is only a few weeks away and there is yet another communique from da' usual suspects.  As usual, you can read all about at the usual address on the World Wide Web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows:  "La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025."

You can read all the gory details, but the highlights are as follows:

• ENSO-neutral continued during August 2024, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean
• The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C.

Of some significance is the shift in methodology and I quote: "This month, the team relies more on the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) guidance, which predicts La Niña to emerge in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The continuation of negative subsurface temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the formation of a weak La Niña."

To summarize and once more I quote: "A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."

Those of us who keep an eye on the El Niño or La Niña phenomenon have most likely come to the same conclusion as I have: the predictive power of these changes in sea surface temperature has diminished in recent years.  Still, it is often all we have.  So, for whatever it is worth, here is the latest thinking for all of you to ponder . . . . . . . .

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Hahaha. I look forward to weather "less likely to result in conventional winter impacts" but, (I suspect) just like the weather gurus at NOAA, I have no idea what that means.

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Hahaha. I look forward to weather "less likely to result in conventional winter impacts" but, (I suspect) just like the weather gurus at NOAA, I have no idea what that means.

Sadly, it is very difficult to make any guess about the climate because of conflicting forces.  However, it is an excuse to look over the data of your weather station and see what happened during previous La Niña events.  According to Wikipedia's article onEl Niño–Southern Oscillation La Niña phase these are the recorded La Niña years:

1995 – 1996
1998 – 2001
2005 – 2006
2007 – 2008
2008 – 2009
2010 – 2012
2016
2017 – 2018
2020 – 2023

Looking at my station data which really starts in 2010, the result is something of a mixed bag although more examples of above normal rainfall than below:

La Niña	Precipitation
2010 - 2012	Above normal
2016	Above normal
2017 - 2018	Above normal
2020 - 2023	Below normal

It isn't much more to go on, but it is kind of fun to look at your weather station data and see to what extent it can serve as a crystal ball.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Interesting. Your post prompted me to look at my precipitation data, which started in 2013.

La Niña	Precipitation
2016	Below normal
2017 - 2018	Above normal
2020 - 2023	Above normal

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat data miners,

Interesting. Your post prompted me to look at my precipitation data, which started in 2013.

Thank you for sharing!

Anyone else willing to dig into their WeatherCat archives and see what effects La Niña might be happening at their location?

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have been continuing their skullduggery.  So much so that I decided to skip the October communique because it was so murky.  We are now well into November and the situation hasn't improved much.  As always, you can catch up on all the uncertainty at the usual spot on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is as follows:  "La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025. "

Anyone with the slightest education in statistics will see an oxymoron in that sentence.  57% is little better than an even chance.  The phrase "is most likely" certainly does not apply.

The first paragraph lays out the paradox for all to see:

Over the past month, ENSO-neutral continued, as evidenced by overall near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
. . .
Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

So thus far, what is being observed is neutral: neither El Niño nor La Niña.

The second paragraph continues with a forecast that continues the trend of a diminishing expectation of La Niña conditions:

"The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts are cooler than the IRI plume and predict a weak La Niña. Due to this guidance and La Niña-like atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropics, the team still favors onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have shorter duration than other historical episodes. A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."

So the bottom line is that we might still see some La Niña effects, but it is more likely to look like a "normal winter" in the Northern Hemisphere and specifically North America.  Nonetheless, there are other perturbing factors that seem already at work.  Whether or not we get "stood-up" by La Niña could become irrelevant as the climate continues to gyrate ever more wildly.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

So for my location, it can be summarized as follows: The weak La Niña impact is unknown — our coming winter will either be colder, drier, wetter, warmer, or “normal,” depending on the polar jet stream and Donald Trump’s impact on weather. Such is the precision of modern weather forecasting. Stay tuned — in March 2025 we will be able to tell you with great accuracy what happened this winter.