A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and there is yet another communique from da' usual suspects.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is very much the same as last month: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The aspect of the discussion that raised my eyebrows was this sentence:  Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.

We are still July and a lot can happen between now and winter, but if an El Niño could be an issue at your location - a possible risk is clearly looming.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

As always, your synopsis of the gobbledy gook is much appreciated.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The World Wide Web is a big place and you can easily miss something that you should be interested in.  Somehow I never stumbled across the U.S. government site Climate.gov until now:

https://www.climate.gov/

There were two interesting articles on it with regards to the  El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  The first is on how experts decided when an El Niño event is coming:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-here

The second is an article describing a study attempting to determine if global warming has changed the cycles of El Niño and La Niña:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/has-climate-change-already-affected-enso

Both articles are interesting, although the methodology used to assess the effect of global warming seems to me to be a bit of a stretch.  My only overall complaint is that the rhetoric was, by my tastes anyway, a little too folksy and elementary.  Perhaps it is a sign that a high school education hasn't maintained the literacy standards from my youth.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Thanks for sharing.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and those "ENSO" watchers have another pronouncement.  As usual, you can find all the technical jargon on this webpage:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: " El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024)."

Of greater interest is the strength of the El Niño.  On that issue, the discussion reports: "Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a 'strong' El Niño event, with roughly 2 in 3 odds of an event reaching or exceeding 1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4. Note that a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong El Niño impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."

As usual, it doesn't give us mere mortals much of an idea of what to expect.  However, it does give us good reason to compare our local weather in the past to what occurred during a strong El Niño event.  That is about all the guidance we can get these days.

As seems to be all too common these days: like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing.

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and da' usual suspects have released another communique.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January - March 2024)."

The key sentence from the discussion is as follows: "The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%."

Nonetheless, they attach the following disclaimer: "However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."

Nonetheless, if you needed convincing that you need to look up the records at your location to see what a strong El Niño might do to your location, this might very well do the trick.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

I always appreciate your pulling out the key sentences so I don't have to sort through the gobbledy gook. Here is my personal bottom line: It's a crap shoot and they have no idea what's going to happen. And you can quote me on that.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Just as back in May, the gang at the Weather Channel have noticed the El Niño prediction and now have a summary of what they expect should happen for this winter.  Here is a link to the video:

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/what-el-nino-has-historically-meant-for-winter-in-the-us

It is a nice overview with easy to follow graphics.

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have been back at it once more and have released their latest prognostications.  We are now under a  El Niño Advisory.  As usual you can read up on it at this web address:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis for this month reads as follows:  "El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024)."

However, what seems to be the most important part can found in the second paragraph which includes the following "The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a "strong" event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥ 1.5°C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4). There is a 3 in 10 chance of a "historically strong" event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0°C). Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally."

With winter fast approaching, it seems like we all should expect a strong El Niño event and plan appropriately.

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear California WeatherCatters,

The Weather Channel has a well-presented article on the effects of El Niño on California in past years:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-10-17-el-nino-california-winter-weather-rain-snow

The rainfall diagrams in particular are very interesting.  However, they are clear to caution that there are no guarantees - a very prudent position to take.

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

Sorry, remind me, again, where is this "California"?

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and da' usual suspects are still at large and doing mischief.  You can find their latest prognostication at the usual place:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis for this month reads as follows: "El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024)"

However, like last month, the juicy info is to be found in second paragraph and reiterates what was proposed last month: "The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥ 1.5°C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024. There is a 35% chance of this event becoming "historically strong" (≥ 2.0°C) for the November-January season."

The same disclaimer is then provided as was stated last month.  Basically, it is the usual "your mileage may vary."

Either it is a slow weather news day, or perhaps this really is serious, but the Weather Channel picked up on this report right away.  Here is their take on the situation:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-11-09-el-nino-strong-november-update-noaa

As usual, what does this mean exactly? . . . . . good question!

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The Weather Channel has updated their report on the effect of El Niño on the United States this winter:

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2023-11-15-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast-united-states

This report is focused on temperatures and notes some of the curve balls that could change what a typical strong El Niño does to the continental US.

FYI . . . . . .  Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' Usual Suspects aren't taking December off for the holidays.  As is their tradition, they have issued another communique on the second Thursday of the month.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance)"

That could be good news for folks who get in trouble during El Niño years.  At least it is expected to end after this winter.  However, there are some juicy details in the text that definitely should catch the attention of anyone effected by El Niño.  To quote: "based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season (≥ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4). An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950. "

After this observation, the discussion provides the usual "your mileage may vary" disclaimer.

Nonetheless, this forecast definitely got the Weather Channel all excited:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-12-14-super-el-nino-chances-december-noaa-update

One quote from the Weather Channel piece might be of interest to anyone who has had their weather stations up for over a decade: "T​he last two strong El Niños proved this by having extremely different outcomes. Winter 2009-10, for example, was much colder than expected in the U.S. during a strong El Niño winter.  A​nd there are indications this strong El Niño may be behaving like 2009-10, at least initially."

So if you have data going back to 2009-10, you might take a look to see how your location might be effected by El Niño this year.

Edouard

[LesCimes]

So if you have data going back to 2009-10, you might take a look to see how your location might be effected by El Niño this year.

I wasn't sure, so I double checked. I do have data from January 2010 to the present! Thanks for the idea.