A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?

[Blicj11]

Sounds like we can expect either warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, or the same as last winter. In 6 months the Cat and I will tell you exactly how it all turned out. 

[xairbusdriver]

Here's a late (Dec 11,2021) link to a YouTube vid from an airline Captain. It shows the sad state of the Oroville reservoir. He took his Husky up last Saturday.

There is also mention of the forecast precip that should be ending about now (Dec 15). Hope you also got some rain/snow in the watersheds a bit nearer your area. Frankly, I don't see how you can hope for more than a very slow and incomplete recovery from the drought conditions.

[The Grand Poohbah]

Here's a late (Dec 11,2021) link to a YouTube vid from an airline Captain. It shows the sad state of the Oroville reservoir. He took his Husky up last Saturday.

There is also mention of the forecast precip that should be ending about now (Dec 15). Hope you also got some rain/snow in the watersheds a bit nearer your area. Frankly, I don't see how you can hope for more than a very slow and incomplete recovery from the drought conditions.

The airline captain's YouTube handle is "blancolirio" and he lives in Grass Valley, CA, not too far from us. We had a big storm pass thru after he did the Lake Oroville video. The storm dropped up to 7 inches of rain in places (4 inches at our location) and many feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. The static water level in our well went up 3 feet because of the storm. Another storm is on it's way starting this afternoon. Woo-wee! Bring it on!

[Blicj11]

Woo-wee! Bring it on!

Amen!

[xairbusdriver]

Looks like the Oroville water level is actually rising and will have a good amount of snow pack in the Sierras next Spring. Edouard's graphs show a bit of rain...

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Undeterred by Omicron or tsunamis , Da' usual suspects remain at large and released another communique this week.  You can read up on all da' dirt here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis basically provides the same refrain:  "La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022). "

They are hedging their bets a bit as to when da' fickle princess will final depart, but the overall theme is a transition back to ENSO-neutral sea temperature conditions by the mid to late spring.

Of course da' usual question remains - what does it mean?    However, as noted in an earlier posting: . . . .

Well, look at it this way, I certainly wouldn't buy or sell any stocks based on this information!!  . . .

Cheers, Edouard 

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have once more resurfaced to make a proclamation on the usual El Niño/La Niña question.  This time they have changed their tune slightly.  As usual, you can catch up on all the sordid details at this link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Here is the synopsis:

La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022).

This is a change from last month in that it seems La Niña is reluctant to leave.  The discussion fills in some of the details:  Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened during January 2022, though anomalies stayed negative across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The punch-line is:  The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring. Because the easterly trade winds have recently been strengthening and are predicted to continue in the near term, the forecaster consensus favors those models suggesting a slower decay of La Niña through the spring. However, ENSO-neutral is still anticipated to return by the Northern Hemisphere summer, although the chance does not exceed 57% during June-August 2022, reflecting the uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier.

So what has been uncertain at best has become even more uncertain.  Why am I not surprised? . . . . . 

Cheers, Edouard 

[Blicj11]

I always appreciate your synopsis of this gobbeldy gook, even if all it says is, "We're not sure, but we think there may still be some weather of one kind or another."

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Hot off the press is a new twist in the worn out plot regarding La Niña.  As usual you can get your fix at the usual webspot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline reads:  "La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall."

The long and the short of it is that models aren't converging very clearly, but in so far as there is any convergence, La Niña would continue until the autumn.

It isn't at all clear what is the effect of La Niña on the worsening drought in the western United States, but those of us fed up with the dry conditions certainly have no reason for hope in this forecast. 

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The proper authorities should really round up "da' usual suspects" so that they cannot do any more harm.  Alas, they remain at large and are up to their usual mischief.  Their latest communique seems like still more bad news for drought sufferers in the western United States.  You can read up on all da' dirt for yourself at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance)."

The key observation can be found in this sentence in the discussion:  "However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter."

So if you like La Niña, I suppose this is a hopeful forecast.  For those of us who associate La Niña with drought - enough said . . . . .

What'ya gonna do? . . . . . . . Edouard

[Blicj11]

Booooo!

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat subscribers to the El Niño or La Niña soap opera,

I must apologize for not keeping closer tabs on "da' usual suspects," but by this time of year they are normally on vacation or something.   I guess with the price of gas they opted for a staycation and since they were stuck in the house they chose to accost us with another communique.  The latest annoyance can be found at the usual spot on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline reads thus:  "Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance)."

You can read all the details for yourself, but the bottom line is that the forecast models predict that la Niña will weaken for a time and then return.  How much stock should you put into these models?  Well, let's put it this way, they might be more trustworthy than cryptocurrencies - or not! . . . 

Cheers, Edouard 

[Blicj11]

 In other words, the weather might be different, or the same. Stay tuned …

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

D'em usual suspects are a gabby lot and they have been blabbering all summer long.  However, now that autumn is in the wings, perhaps it is more important to see what are their latest prognostications.  As usual, you can catch up on all da' dirt, at the usual spot on the world wide web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is as follows:  "La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023."

In this case, the discussion is more interesting.  Here is second paragraph which discusses the issues associated with the predication:  "The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. There is an interesting split in the dynamical versus statistical model forecasts, with the latter set suggesting La Niña will persist longer, through January-March 2023. At this time, the forecaster consensus sides with the statistical models, although there is still large uncertainty over how long La Niña will last and when it will transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during February-April 2023). In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023."

The punch line is very much what this ongoing soap opera seems to suggest.  La Niña is hanging around for much longer than the climate experts were expecting, and thus far, there isn't any obvious signs of when it will end.  As much as we all enjoy a chuckle when predictions like this fall flat, there is a sobering point we all should accept.  The atmospheric oceanic system is extremely large, complex, and intrinsically chaotic.  It is easier to predictions about subatomic physics than our own climate.  The obvious trouble is that we really need to know what our climate is doing - far more in some respects than particle physics. 

Cheers, Edouard

[Blicj11]

My favorite part of all this is you taking the time to summarize the latest so the rest of us don't have to dig through the technical mumbo jumbo. Thank you!!