Author Topic: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?  (Read 5961 times)

Blicj11

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Re: El Ni?o hanging around through Spring. (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2019, 03:42:17 pm »
What does it mean for us mere mortals? . . . .    ;)  Besides the likelihood that our tax dollars are paying for the employment of "da' usual suspects," hard conclusions remain difficult to come by! . . . .  ??? . . .  lol(1)

I read the their diagnostic discussion and concluded that I didn't know any more after doing so than I did before I read it.
Blick


elagache

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Da' plot thickens . . . . (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #31 on: February 07, 2019, 01:03:24 am »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

For some reason the latest El Ni?o or a La Ni?a report didn't get the CPC headlines until today even if it was issued January 10th.  Nonetheless here it is for the curious:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headlines remain the same:  "El Ni?o is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance). "

However the details are much more dicey all of a sudden.  The reports are of neutral conditions.  Here is an example:

Quote
ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Ni?o indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2?C in the Ni?o-1+2 region and near +0.7?C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180?-100?W) also weakened [Fig. 3],

That sounds like no El Ni?o after all.  However the report goes on to say:

Quote
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Ni?o3.4 index of +0.5?C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Ni?o conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form.

So whatever El Ni?o may form, it isn't expected to have any effect on your climate and whatever climate effects you are observing now are not due to El Ni?o.

Of source it is up to you decide if this is good news or bad!   ???

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

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El Ni?o . . . IT'S BAACK!!! (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2019, 10:29:41 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

For Valentine's day we learn that we are under an El Ni?o Advisory.  All the details can be read here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline reads:  "Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance)"

Moreover the discussion includes the following observation:  "El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. "

So the weather you are presently observing may (or may not) have something to do with this weak El Ni?o.

So as usual - what you make of this is entirely your concern - on account of nobody is too terribly sure what this means anyway!  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

pbeaudet

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Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2019, 11:01:33 pm »
 lol(1)

Thanks for the FYI.

elagache

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El Ni?o strengthening (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2019, 11:48:48 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The gang keeping an eye on El Ni?o and La Ni?a but out another bulletin on March 14th:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline has been revised slightly:  "Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance)"

Furthermore they report "El Ni?o conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined."

An El Ni?o during the Spring and Summer isn't something I ever recall experiencing.  So I guess we'll all find out what this sort of unusual temperature scenario will do to our local weather.

Cheers, Edouard

elagache

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El Ni?o into Autumn? (Re: El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?)
« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2019, 11:22:29 pm »
Dear WeatherCat observers of El Ni?o and/or La Ni?a,

Those sneaky devils posted an update on the El Ni?o situation but didn't bother to post a headline about it.  The last update is from May 9th.  The title reads:

El Ni?o is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance).

You can read all the details here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The key paragraph is reproduced below:

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Ni?o to continue through 2019, with SST anomalies in the Ni?o-3.4 region clustering between +0.5?C and +1.0?C.  However, model predictions made during the spring tend to be less accurate relative to the rest of the year, so uncertainty remains whether this outcome will occur. In the shorter term, a recent increase in westerly wind anomalies over the west-central Pacific Ocean portends the possible development of another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which could build up the above-average subsurface temperatures needed for El Ni?o to persist. In summary, El Ni?o is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Like all forecasts beyond a few days, take with a generous grain of salt!  [biggrin]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

xairbusdriver

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Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
« Reply #36 on: May 24, 2019, 01:13:26 am »
What are "SST anomalies"? I thought they were all grounded a decade ago! Although Boeing still makes noises (no pun intended, of course) about building one. I don't think that's a high priority for them right now, however...

Quote
Like all forecasts beyond a few days, take with a generous grain of salt!
My docs wants me to lay off salt as much as possible...

elagache

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Could it be? . . . . (Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a? )
« Reply #37 on: August 16, 2019, 11:18:59 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

We are starting to make the transition from Summer to Autumn and the "da' usual suspects" have been once more pouring over their tea leaves with respect to El Ni?o and La Ni?a.  You can read the latest discussion here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

This time they have concluded:

El Ni?o has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance).

Of course this is different than either El Ni?o or La Ni?a, but what will this actually do to your local winter season? . . . . . .

. . . . . . As usual, we are all left with about the same uncertainty as we had before the forecast! . . . .

Such are da' conditions that prevail! . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2019, 03:45:18 pm »
I love reading through this stuff and not knowing anything more afterwards than I did before. Not.
Blick


elagache

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Could it be a La Niña winter? (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #39 on: July 10, 2020, 12:36:25 am »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another favorite weather-related soap-opera is the dance of El Niño and La Niña.  It is only July, but the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (aka da' usual suspects,) are already weighing in on the subject.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline reads:  "ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance)"

You can plow through the gobbledygook yourself for all the sorted details.   What I've noticed is that ENSO-neutral years tend to be drought years here in California (at least for the past decade or so.)  In contrast, either El Niño and La Niña tend to bring above normal rainfall.  Of course none of this makes sense, but that exactly what does anymore?

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]


Blicj11

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Re: A year without either an El Ni?o or a La Ni?a?
« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2020, 03:36:03 pm »
Hahaha. Looks like there is a 50-50 chance that something could happen. Or not. Let's hope for the best, whatever that is. Thanks for posting; I alway find these ENSO predictions interesting but I get the most out of your summary.
Blick