NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2024

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Apologies for the delay, but here at last is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



Certainly is looking like a warm Autumn if these forecasts come to pass.  At least in northern California, October is starting off very warm.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Certainly looking like Autumn with start by spreading drought over a wide part of the country. 

Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



Given the discouraging precipitation forecasts, the drought outlooks are no surprise.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Of course the next set of predictions are wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated October:



As will be seen in the subsequent outlooks, October poses the greatest risk for wildfires before the change of seasons brings down the risk to more normal levels.

Here is the November outlook.



Here is December:



The only regions with an elevated fire risk are parts of southern California and central Texas.  This could be caused in part by La Niña.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Apologies for the delay, but here at last is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.   Before we get to the actual graphs, it is worth noting that NOAA has issued their 2024-25 winter outlook which is based largely on these forecasts:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-and-drier-south-wetter-north

Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



Certainly is looking like a warm Autumn if these forecasts come to pass. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



The forecast for November alone seems a bit puzzling.  However, the 3-month forecast is consistent with the temperature predictions.

Given the discouraging precipitation forecasts, the drought outlooks are no surprise.  Here is the drought outlook for November:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



The spread of drought is highlighted in the NOAA winter outlook and is influenced in part by the expected La Niña

Of course the next set of predictions are wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated November:



It is certainly less common to have wildfire risk in the eastern 1/3 of the country.  Here is the November outlook.



Here is January:



By the time of the transition from autumn to winter, the wildfire risk is to be found in more typical locations which coincide with the expected expansion of drought.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Apologies for the delay, but here at last is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of autumn and start of winter.   Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



 Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



The drought outlooks are consistent with the precipitation expectations.  Here is the drought outlook for December:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Of course the next set of predictions are wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated December:



It is certainly less common to have wildfire risk in the eastern 1/3 of the country.  Alas, these forecasts have already been proven correct by nasty wildfires in the region. Here is the January outlook.



Here is February:



By the time of the transition from autumn to winter, the wildfire risk is to be found in more typical locations which coincide with the expected expansion of drought.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Steve]

I just want it to be above freezing for a few days in early January here in Northern Ohio, so I can de-winterize the trailer and get it ready for two months in Florida!

[elagache]

Dear Steve and WeatherCatters with road-trip inclinations, . . . .

I just want it to be above freezing for a few days in early January here in Northern Ohio, so I can de-winterize the trailer and get it ready for two months in Florida!

Even as an "armchair" RV owner I understand the need to winterize your trailers liquid tanks to prevent damage by freezing.  Indeed if you wish to hit the road again, you need reverse the procedure so that your trailer is ready to hit the road and be lived in.

If the Climate Prediction Center is on the beam you should get your wish.  In just a few days of travel, the cold of the north will be nothing more than press reports and you will join that elite (if perhaps too numerous) avian species: snow-birders!

In the meantime, enjoy the daydreaming! 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

I just want it to be above freezing for a few days in early January here in Northern Ohio, so I can de-winterize the trailer and get it ready for two months in Florida!

It's a tough life, but someone has to live it; thanks for volunteering.

[Steve]

It's a tough life, but someone has to live it; thanks for volunteering.

Taking one for the team!