NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2023

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is a new year and a new season and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



As usual, I'll cut the gab and mostly allow the graphs to speak for themselves.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



I'll interject a quick comment here.  If you compare the drought forecast for the past few months it does appear that the prediction tools are having a hard time remaining consistent.

Here is the 3 month outlook:



Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is January:



Here is the February outlook.



Finally, here is March:



I'll interject another quick comment, this is surprisingly similar to last year's forecast as you can see here:

https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=3377.0

Although last year the situation was more extreme than this year.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Yesterday was the first day in 8 days it didn't snow at our home. During those eight days we received about 7 inches of snow water equivalent. The next storm is forecast to arrive this afternoon. This is the most promising start to our snowpack we've had in several years. This is a most welcome blessing for those of us who live in this terrible drought in the western United States.

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western United States drought sufferers,

Yesterday was the first day in 8 days it didn't snow at our home. During those eight days we received about 7 inches of snow water equivalent. The next storm is forecast to arrive this afternoon. This is the most promising start to our snowpack we've had in several years. This is a most welcome blessing for those of us who live in this terrible drought in the western United States.

Well, . . . . . yes, particularly where your precipitation falls as snow, the effects of the recent atmospheric river storms on the west coast are greatly appreciated - even if excessive snow will eventually also become very hazardous.  Unfortunately, here in coastal California our precipitation is of the liquid variety and this is starting to cause problems of excess instead of deprivation:



Never a dull moment in California . .. .. 

Oh well, Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is February and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



As usual, I'll cut the gab and mostly allow the graphs to speak for themselves.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



One quick comment.  Even if the West received a lot precipitation recently, the drought outlooks are considerably more pessimistic than for January.

Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is February:



Here is the March outlook.



Finally, here is April:



As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

March has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



As usual, I'll cut the gab and mostly allow the graphs to speak for themselves.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is March:



Here is the February outlook.



Finally, here is May:



Quick comment: this prediction does seem a bit peculiar.  I can't see any obvious reason why there should be a lower than normal fire risk in Arizona, Utah, and Nevada in May. 

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard