NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2022

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is a new year and a new season and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



This does look very different from last month with a region of higher temperatures limited to the southern 1/4 of the country or so.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



While this does look closer to the previous 3 month forecast it now suggests that more of the west will remain cool.  All areas do not seem to be forecast to warm up as much as the December 3 month forecast.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



This forecast is more optimistic than the one for December.  Fewer areas are expected to be below normal and more regions are expected above normal perception.

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



It paints the same overall picture as the 1 month and the December 3 month forecast.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



This is a reversal of December with more relief expected in the West.  On other hand Texas and other parts of the south are expected to develop drought.

Here is the 3 month outlook:



It continues the prediction on improvement in parts of the west while drought develops in the south.

As the poor folks in Colorado have learned, wildfire risks are now year around.  Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is January:



Here is the February outlook.



Finally, here is March:



As you can see, the wildfire risks are located in the areas of developing drought in and around Texas and much of the Atlantic seaboard eventually engulfing Florida.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry, I've had to nibble on this over short periods at the computer, but here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



I'll skip the commentary and let the predictions speak for themselves.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center. Here is February:



Here is the March outlook.



Finally, here is April:



As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Thank you for crawling out of recovery mode to share this.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The equinox isn't far away and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from winter to spring  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



Like last month, I'll skip the commentary and let the predictions speak for themselves.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center. Here is March:



Here is the March outlook.



Finally, here is May:



As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard