Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2020  (Read 260 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2020
« on: July 01, 2020, 09:34:34 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summer is officially underway and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:



It has the same overall pattern as the June forecast, but is more extreme in terms of heat.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:



There is also similarities to last month's predication although the forecast is more extreme.  It is definitely a "hot everywhere" sort of outlook.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:



Unlike last month, many parts of the country are expecting below normal rainfall.

Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:



Unfortunately, the areas that are expected to receive above normal rainfall were already at risk for flooding.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for July:



Compared to last month, drought expands in the west.  Although some areas are expected to see relief from drought.  Here is the 3 month outlook:



It grimly continues the overall trends of the July forecast.  Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These come only monthly.  They are all very similar so I'll just list all three.  Here is the updated July:



Here is the August outlook.



Here is September:



The risk in the West remains mostly constant.  I believe the variations are more likely due many areas simply having more or less fire risk as the summer progresses.  In the Mississippi river system below average fire risks are expected although this diminishes as finally the river flows start to diminish.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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August (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2020)
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2020, 10:21:48 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

August has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:



August is expected to be more seasonable in some parts of the country than July was forecast to be.  The cooler than normal in the center of the country is a bit puzzling.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:



There is also similarities to last month's predication although the forecast is more extreme.  It is definitely a "hot everywhere" sort of outlook.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:



Unlike last month, there is considerable uncertainty with large parts of the country having an equal chance of above, average, or below normal rainfall.

Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:



Oddly enough this 3 month graph resembles the 1 month predictions for July!

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for August:



Compared to last month, drought further expands at the edges of already parched territory.  Here is the 3 month outlook:



It grimly continues the overall trends of the August forecast although not as extreme.  Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These come only monthly.  Here is the updated August:



This still shows the Southern parts of the country benefiting from the excessive spring rains.  Here is the September outlook.



Much of the country finds itself under "normal" conditions of wildfire risk.  The exception is a band starting in northern California and stretching east.  Here is October:



Curiously, much of the threat in the west decreases to "normal."  Alas, the San Francisco Bay Area and southern California coast now come under elevated threat.  Paradoxically, the areas that were at below normal threat for August are now at an elevated threat for October.  I don't see anything in the previous graphs to explain this.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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September (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2020)
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2020, 11:25:20 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

September has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for September:



The September forecast is similar to last month.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for September through November:



There is also similarities to last month's predication.  It is definitely a "hot everywhere" sort of outlook.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for September:



It does appear to be dry for large areas of the west and wetter than normal in the east.

Here is the equivalent graph for September to November:



The 3 month prediction is somewhat similar to the 1 month with more uncertainty.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for September:



Sadly there is little improvement expected in most places.  Here is the 3 month outlook:



It grimly continues the overall trends of the September forecast although not as extreme. 

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These come only monthly.  Here is the updated September:



This still shows the Southern parts of the country benefiting from the excessive spring rains.  However parts of Texas are now under elevated fire risk.  Here is the October outlook.



Much of the west finds itself under "normal" conditions of wildfire risk with the exception of California.  Paradoxically, the areas in the south that were at below normal threat for September are now at an elevated threat for October.  This continues the pattern observed last month.



Curiously, much of the threat in the west decreases to "normal" with just a stretch of Southern California at a higher risk.    The elevated threats continue in the South.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard