A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It may be a new year, but Da' Usual Suspects are still at it.  As is their tradition, they have issued another communique on the second Thursday of the month.  You can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance)."

What is meant by "several seasons" is a bit baffling to me.  At most it could mean only 2 seasons: winter and spring.

The discussion no longer mentions a strong El Niño.  Indeed a sentence in the second paragraph reads: "The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024."  Also to be found in the second paragraph is some wishful forecasting at least in my opinion:  "There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral."

It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

It isn't that these forecasts are particularly clear at best, but this forecast definitely left me rather uncertain as to what they are expecting.

It's clear to me. They are saying the weather will either be warmer and drier, colder and wetter, or about the same as normal. Unless it isn't. 

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat commentators on weather forecasting technology,

It's clear to me. They are saying the weather will either be warmer and drier, colder and wetter, or about the same as normal. Unless it isn't. 

In other words . . . . It is as clear as MUD!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and we have the latest pronouncements from da' usual suspects.  You can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)."

The details really don't add much.  Without having much confidence, the expectation is that we will yo-yo from El Niño to La Niña as this year unfolds.

Take it for whatever it is worth (and mostly likely - it isn't much!  )

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

I think they got the year right, have to wait till 2025 to confirm everything else.
These Niña/o things get so messed up coming across the Rockies!

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Another month has passed and we have the latest pronouncements from da' usual suspects.  You can get all the details at the usual spot:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

This month the plot thickens a bit.  For starters the  ENSO Alert System Status is:  "El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch."  What would appear to be contradiction is precisely what thickens the plot.

The synopsis reads: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). "

The Weather Channel has picked up on this and has piece written more with the mere mortal in mind:

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-03-14-el-nino-la-nina-forecast-march-update-noaa

It summarizes the observations and explains some of the ramifications of a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña.

The key part of the discussion from da' usual suspects is as follows:

"The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events."

As usual, exactly what all of this means . . . . ?  As X-Air points out, the only certain way to find out is to live through the next year - assuming of course it isn't interrupted by the Second Coming!

Edouard