Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?  (Read 3291 times)

Blicj11

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Re: El Niño hanging around through Spring. (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2019, 03:42:17 PM »
What does it mean for us mere mortals? . . . .    ;)  Besides the likelihood that our tax dollars are paying for the employment of "da' usual suspects," hard conclusions remain difficult to come by! . . . .  ??? . . .  lol(1)

I read the their diagnostic discussion and concluded that I didn't know any more after doing so than I did before I read it.
Blick


elagache

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Da' plot thickens . . . . (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #31 on: February 07, 2019, 01:03:24 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

For some reason the latest El Niño or a La Niña report didn't get the CPC headlines until today even if it was issued January 10th.  Nonetheless here it is for the curious:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headlines remain the same:  "El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance). "

However the details are much more dicey all of a sudden.  The reports are of neutral conditions.  Here is an example:

Quote
ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Niño indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2°C in the Niño-1+2 region and near +0.7°C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also weakened [Fig. 3],

That sounds like no El Niño after all.  However the report goes on to say:

Quote
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Niño conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form.

So whatever El Niño may form, it isn't expected to have any effect on your climate and whatever climate effects you are observing now are not due to El Niño.

Of source it is up to you decide if this is good news or bad!   ???

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

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El Niño . . . IT'S BAACK!!! (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2019, 10:29:41 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

For Valentine's day we learn that we are under an El Niño Advisory.  All the details can be read here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline reads:  "Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance)"

Moreover the discussion includes the following observation:  "El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. "

So the weather you are presently observing may (or may not) have something to do with this weak El Niño.

So as usual - what you make of this is entirely your concern - on account of nobody is too terribly sure what this means anyway!  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

pbeaudet

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Re: A year without either an El Niño or a La Niña?
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2019, 11:01:33 PM »
 lol(1)

Thanks for the FYI.

elagache

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El Niño strengthening (Re: El Niño or a La Niña?)
« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2019, 11:48:48 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The gang keeping an eye on El Niño and La Niña but out another bulletin on March 14th:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline has been revised slightly:  "Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance)"

Furthermore they report "El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined."

An El Niño during the Spring and Summer isn't something I ever recall experiencing.  So I guess we'll all find out what this sort of unusual temperature scenario will do to our local weather.

Cheers, Edouard