Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,
Da' usual suspects continue to be at large and have issued another pronouncement on the Niña situation. As usual you can read it here:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtmlThe synopsis shows an important difference from last bulletin:
"La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June)"As reported here
earlier, the previous forecast was for La Niña to continue into the spring. The discussion notes the change:
"The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will continue through the February-April 2022 season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral sometime during the Northern Hemisphere spring, with chances for La Niña declining below 50% after March-May 2022. The chance of a moderate-strength La Niña declined slightly from last month's update, but there is still a 59% chance of the Niño-3.4 index reaching a value less than -1.0°C for the November 2021 - January 2022 season. "
So the forecast has indeed changed. Does that change the meaning for us mere mortals? As was true last month, the usual uncertainty applies . . ..
Cheers, Edouard