Author Topic: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?  (Read 26540 times)

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 3941
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP Data Logger | iMac (2019), 3.6 GHz Intel Core i9, 40 GB RAM, macOS Ventura 13.6 | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | WeatherCat 3.3 | Supportive Wife
Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #45 on: November 20, 2020, 06:36:25 PM »
I hope you don't mind if I quote you.

Hahaha, quote away!
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
La Niña! weakening by spring? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #46 on: December 16, 2020, 12:13:07 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is yet another update on the El Niño or La Niña situation:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis provides the key info: "La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June)"

The discussion proposes that we are going to experience a "moderate" La Niña event.  Alas, at least in Northern California, La Niña is behaving very differently than in past events and our extreme drought is only getting worse. 

Alas, such are da' conditions that thus far prevail, . . . . . .

Oh well, Edouard 

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 3941
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP Data Logger | iMac (2019), 3.6 GHz Intel Core i9, 40 GB RAM, macOS Ventura 13.6 | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | WeatherCat 3.3 | Supportive Wife
Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #47 on: December 22, 2020, 10:02:28 PM »
Thanks for sharing. Is till don't know hat it means, other than the western US is drier then dry.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
La Niña down but not out. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2021, 11:33:31 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The El Niño / La Niña soap opera has been continuing without any significant change the plot for this winter.  There is another update today:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows:  " There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June)."

As you can read in the diagnostic discussion, the indicators have been waffling during winter.   La Niña conditions have diminished in some oceans but not others.  The expectation remains that conditions will shift to so-called ENSO-Neutral before the start of summer.  Alas for those of us who appear to suffering from drought as a result of La Niña, that would be too late to affect the winter rainy season.

So, as seems to be all to common these days:

Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 3941
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP Data Logger | iMac (2019), 3.6 GHz Intel Core i9, 40 GB RAM, macOS Ventura 13.6 | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | WeatherCat 3.3 | Supportive Wife
Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2021, 11:58:17 PM »
Thanks for the summary. All I know is we got a lot of snow in February and are still in very dangerous drought conditions. Snow pack is about 2/3 of normal.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects
have issued their final pronouncement with respect to this past winter's La Niña.  You can read all about it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The headline reads as follow:  "La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021). "

However, as seems typical for this soap opera, then the plots gets more murky.  The bulk of the second paragraph reads as follows:

Most of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a continuation of ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The forecaster consensus agrees with this set of models through the summer, and then begins hedging toward cooler conditions as the Northern Hemisphere fall approaches. La Niña chances are around 50-55% during the late fall and winter, which is in alignment with forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System and North American Multi-model Ensemble. However, there is typically large uncertainty with forecasts made in the spring, so confidence in ENSO-neutral for the coming seasons is highest.

So the situation is clear . . . . . . .  as soapy water for the summer and degrading toward mud as we approach winter.

As Jimmy Durante would put it:  Such are da' conditions that prevail! . . . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 3941
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP Data Logger | iMac (2019), 3.6 GHz Intel Core i9, 40 GB RAM, macOS Ventura 13.6 | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | WeatherCat 3.3 | Supportive Wife
Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #51 on: May 19, 2021, 11:42:32 PM »
Thanks for posting. Even if it didn't say anything I understand.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
Job security!! (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #52 on: May 21, 2021, 12:42:02 AM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat observers of climate science and . . . . . . . . taxpayers!! . . .

. . .  Even if it didn't say anything I understand.

 [wink] . . . . Of course!  What did you expect?  If we understood what da' usual suspects were really up to - we'd probably fire them in a heartbeat! . . . . . . .  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Steve

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 1555
    • DW8454
    • KOHAVON11
    • Avon Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Wireless VP2 Plus w/24 hr FARS, Leaf & Soil Station, 2023 Mac mini M2 Pro, 32GB RAM, Mac OS 14, WeatherCat 3.2
Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #53 on: May 21, 2021, 03:19:51 PM »
Thanks for posting. Even if it didn't say anything I understand.

It's California. The weather never changes, so they have to come up with ever more complex ways to say "The weather will be perfect today, but if it isn't, it will be perfect tomorrow."

That's the west coast equivalent to the adage applied to much of the Midwest; "If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes." ;)

Steve - Avon, Ohio, USA


CWOP: DW8454 - WU: KOHAVON11 - AWEKAS - CoCoRaHS
PWSweather - WeatherCloud - Twitter - Facebook

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
What!?!?? - Another La Niña? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #54 on: July 10, 2021, 09:47:03 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

As Blick reported elsewhere on this forum:

https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=3316.msg31869#msg31869

Da' usual suspects have once more issued a La Niña watch.  You can read all the gory details at this link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis reads as follows:  "ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (66% chance during November-January)."

I don't know about you guys, but at least for me, this constantly creating sequels of the same movie is really getting old . . . . . . . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard  :-\

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
More La Niña chatter . . . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #55 on: August 31, 2021, 10:57:38 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the late notice, this was posted on the 12th of August, but I didn't visit the Climate Predication Center website until now.  There is yet another La Niña headline:

ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January)

You can read (as usual) all the gory details here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The gist I get from the discussion is that sub sea temperatures have already started to decrease more than expected and more recent runs of their forecast models are consistent with a weak La Niña starting as early as autumn.

As usual, what this means for us climate-bound morals is utterly unclear.  The patterns I had noticed in the past seem overturned by changes in the seasons that seem undeniably due to climate change.  Nonetheless, particularly for those of us in the drought stricken west, La Niña is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Edouard

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 3941
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP Data Logger | iMac (2019), 3.6 GHz Intel Core i9, 40 GB RAM, macOS Ventura 13.6 | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | WeatherCat 3.3 | Supportive Wife
Re: A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?
« Reply #56 on: September 01, 2021, 11:31:07 PM »
i always rely on your two-sentence interpretations of this gobbledy gook, so thanks for letting us know the experts don't have  any idea what is going to happen, or when.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
Da' woman's prerogative. . . . (Re: El Niño or La Niña? )
« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2021, 11:30:56 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects have once more weighed in on the subject of El Niño or La Niña.  You can read up on all da' dirt at the usual webpage: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is also the punch-line:  "La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue with an 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022. "

In addition, NOAA created this slick press release announcing the "double-dip La Niña"

https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

There is also a press release outlining NOAA's winter outlook, but I'll save that for another day.

As usual, what does it mean?    Well, look at it this way, I certainly wouldn't buy or sell any stocks based on this information!!  . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
La Niña advisory. (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #58 on: November 12, 2021, 11:58:06 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects
have been at it again and have another pronouncement on this year's La Niña.  You can read all about it at the usual place:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis is pretty emphatic:  "La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May)."

It is hard to argue with a 90% probably that La Niña will be present this winter.  There is a bit of additional news (and I quote:) "At its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored."  I couldn't easily ferret out what last year's La Niña event was, but if I recall correctly it was a weak event.  The weather seems different than last year, we might be in for a winter that doesn't resemble last year's.  Of course what does that mean?  The usual uncertainty applies.

Oh well,
. . . . . Edouard

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 6494
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
La Niña winter but not spring? (Re: El Niño or La Niña?)
« Reply #59 on: December 11, 2021, 09:34:32 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Da' usual suspects continue to be at large and have issued another pronouncement on the Niña situation.  As usual you can read it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis shows an important difference from last bulletin: "La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June)"

As reported here earlier, the previous forecast was for La Niña to continue into the spring.  The discussion notes the change:

"The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will continue through the February-April 2022 season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral sometime during the Northern Hemisphere spring, with chances for La Niña declining below 50% after March-May 2022. The chance of a moderate-strength La Niña declined slightly from last month's update, but there is still a 59% chance of the Niño-3.4 index reaching a value less than -1.0°C for the November 2021 - January 2022 season. "

So the forecast has indeed changed.  Does that change the meaning for us mere mortals?  As was true last month, the usual uncertainty applies . . ..

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]