Looking for wetter weather?

[HantaYo]

Well the 11.5" of snow I received less than a week ago is melted down to a couple of inches again and hot, dry windy weather is the daily forecast.  Dreaming of snowy weather this Pueblo Co NWS weather discussion comment caught my eye:

LOOKING FOR WETTER WEATHER?  LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT BIG PATTERN CHANGES STARTING AROUND
MARCH 8TH.

Looking forward to March 8    (as long as my bruised ribs and knee heal up from a fall on the icy highway on Monarch Pass )

[Blicj11]

Ouch! Hope you heal from the fall. I've been to Monarch Pass, but never in the winter. We still have 34 inches of snow on the ground here. We have three small storms in the forecast for next week, for a total of three more inches of snow. As Tesco has been telling us since 1993, "Every little helps."

[HantaYo]

Ouch! Hope you heal from the fall. I've been to Monarch Pass, but never in the winter. We still have 34 inches of snow on the ground here. We have three small storms in the forecast for next week, for a total of three more inches of snow. As Tesco has been telling us since 1993, "Every little helps."

Slowly getting better.  A couple of weeks earlier I slipped on a cooked potato and sprained my foot.  After a couple of weeks of unseasonably warm weather, the pavement was warm and the falling snow melted and turned into ice.  Heavy snow on top of the ice just made for bad driving- and walking.  On top of that I-70 in Glenwood Canyon is closed during the day for rock fall mitigation.  One of the detours is Highway 50 and Monarch Pass.  Just too many trucks and traffic from the detour plus the weather just made the pass dangerous.  Several trucks were involved as well as a state patrol car and a few other cars.  I got out to take a look and went down like a rock falling in the embrace of gravity- and hit the pavement like a rock.   

Looks like those storms are going to be too far north for us.

[HantaYo]

I CANNOT believe this but I was looking outside the south bathroom window just minutes ago and noticed cattins budding on one of the aspen trees.  The whole tree is covered.  And this is 8,400' in elevation!  If memory serves me, usually this happens in mid April.  This does not look good   

[elagache]

Dear HantaYo, Blick,

(as long as my bruised ribs and knee heal up from a fall on the icy highway on Monarch Pass )

So sorry about your tumble.  Take it easy and allow yourself to heal!

LOOKING FOR WETTER WEATHER?  LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT BIG PATTERN CHANGES STARTING AROUND
MARCH 8TH.

Your weather guys weren't the only ones to notice the change, here is the report from the Monterey office of the National Weather Service this morning:

  IN THE LONGER TERM RANGE THE ATMOSPHERE DOES LOOK ACTIVE SO WE
  WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THE WEATHER SYSTEMS EVOLVE NEXT
  WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S
  8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS SUGGESTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF ABOVE
  NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG RANGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
  TEMPERATURES ALSO ANTICIPATED.

Sure enough, the Climate Prediction Center is now looking like it did in December:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

All the 6-10 day,  8-14 day, 1-month, and 3-month outlooks are showing above normal precipitation for large areas of the west.

Of course this is only a predication, but MUCH prefer this sort of prediction than the predictions that have hounded us for all of February.

We'll just have to see . . . .

Cheers, Edouard 

[HantaYo]

Of course this is only a predication, but MUCH prefer this sort of prediction than the predictions that have hounded us for all of February.

We'll just have to see . . . . 

I'll take it     Looks like California might be in for a wet week.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

It was supposed to rain today in the San Francisco bay area, but we not nothing more than a bit of mist.  This morning's forecast discussion was once more ominous:

  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FLOW BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL
  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
  AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL DEFLECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BUT
  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GETTING SOME RAIN FROM THE TAIL END OF
  THE SYSTEM THURSDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT BRINGING UNSETTLED
  WEATHER TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
  BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. IF THE FLOW DOES
  BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WEATHER
  PATTERN TO STAGNATE WHICH WOULD FAVOR PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE
  CALIFORNIA COAST.

This afternoon's discussion indicates that the models are diverging with bringing a atmospheric river next Thursdays while other hold the ridge through all of next week.  Alas, it seems clear that what looked like a sure thing isn't so sure anymore.

There was another ominous botched weather prediction.  The vaunted European model failed to forecast some extreme weather over France recently.  Even the day before the event, only rain was expected, instead there was hail, thunderstorms, and even snow on Paris.  So the forecast models are struggling with the current weather conditions.  We are expected to get a really strong storm this weekend, I just hope it isn't the only storm after all.

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat Western USA drought watchers,

The "main event" as far as extreme weather is supposed to hit northern California tomorrow afternoon/evening.  However, some showers were possible today.

Well those showers were a lot more "juicy" than initially forecast.  Here is just one episode from this afternoon:



To 3pm we have received 0.36" of rain (9.1 mm).  Definitely welcome rain after a mostly dry February.  Tomorrow's storm is expected to be extreme.  Here are the current advisories from the Monterey office of the National Weather Service:



Assuming we avoid any mishaps, this could a very helpful step toward getting our reservoirs filled up once more!

Cheers, Edouard 

[xairbusdriver]

Reminds me, the Davis Tech said he was seeing rain outside his window over in Hayward. I heard earlier this week that the forecast rains could be well above the current bottom of the snow pack. That would be bad for a couple of reasons; 1. Melting some of the snow too early, 2. Increase the run off and the chance of flooding down stream.

[HantaYo]

California is looking on the wet side.  Yes, let's hope the rain stays low.  Not calling for much in Colorado yet.

[xairbusdriver]

I'm not sure long range forecasting is any better in the interior of the USofA, but it looks like we should get started on that pipe line to the left coast!

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... ...ABOVE NORMAL SPRING FLOOD RISK FOR THE MID-SOUTH... A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS SET UP THIS SPRING FOR THE MID_SOUTH. BEST PROJECTIONS OF RAIN MARCH THROUGH MAY CALL FOR 3 TO 9 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL FLOODS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, TENNESSEE RIVER, AND ALL OTHER LOCAL RIVERS

I guess they're saying non-"LOCAL" rivers won't flood?

[Blicj11]

Our forecast in Northern Utah is 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow.

[elagache]

Dear X-Air, HantaYo, Blick, and WeatherCat west coast drought watchers,

The rains have started up pick up again as the warm front starts to come over the region.  So the time has come for the main event!

Reminds me, the Davis Tech said he was seeing rain outside his window over in Hayward. I heard earlier this week that the forecast rains could be well above the current bottom of the snow pack. That would be bad for a couple of reasons; 1. Melting some of the snow too early, 2. Increase the run off and the chance of flooding down stream.

We are expecting two storms in quick succession.  The second one is expected to be much colder, so hopefully, it was reverse any additional snow melt and pile some more snow on top of that.

Cheers, Edouard 

[HantaYo]

 

[elagache]

Dear West coast drought watchers,

Northern California is about to be put directly in the cross-hairs of another so-called atmospheric river condition.  From tomorrow through the weekend we are expecting a lot of rain and particularly in the San Francisco north bay, there is great concern about potential flooding.  So for the moment we are suffering from too much of a good thing.  However, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is making one of those ominous prediction swings.  The prediction for 8-14 days out is much below normal for almost all of the west and midwest:



the experimental 3-4 week forecast is equal chance and the monthly forecasts are unchanged, but this does remind me of the start of February a little too much. 

Oh, to live in a place with "reasonable" weather once more . . . .   

Edouard