A year without either an El Niño or La Niña?

[elagache]

Dear watchers of the El Niño and La Niña soap opera,

Another month has passed and those rascally, rascals and made yet another pronouncement.  As usual you can read up on the latest claims at the usual spot on the world wide web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 

The synopsis reads: " La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 - January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance)"

As you will note from the previous posting, this nudges the probability up to 59% from 57% back at the start of November.  However the data doesn't exactly scream the point.  Here is the first sentence of the first paragraph: "ENSO-neutral continued in November, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean."

Nonetheless, the second paragraph starts with:  "The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which continues to predict slightly cooler SSTs and weak La Nina conditions. The forecast team leaned toward predicting an eventual onset of weak and short-lived La Nina conditions, based on the model guidance and current atmospheric anomalies. Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)"

So the same swan song continues to be repeated even if we are at the end of autumn and the possible effects on winter are therefore that much more stunted.  Nonetheless, the Weather Channel has this piece on what they expect might occur even with a weak La Niña:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2024-12-12-la-nina-december-update-winter-temperatures-rain-snow

Sadly, attempting to plan for winter conditions based on our available science still feels more like a fool's errand than not. 

Alas, such are da' conditions that prevail . . . . . . . . .

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Dear watchers of the El Niño and La Niña soap opera,

Another month has passed and those rascally, rascals and made yet another pronouncement.

I always appreciate your plain English summary of these predictions. And a BIG thank you for including the link to the much easier to understand Weather Channel synopsis.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of the El Niño or La Niña soap opera,

Another month has passed, and can you believe it? What had been forecast appears to have finally come to pass.  The rascals responsible for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion finally have some results to report.  As usual you can read their claims at the usual spot on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The big news is to be found in paragraph one:  "La Niña conditions emerged in December 2024 and were reflected in below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean."

So the long promised La Niña event has finally arrived.  As usual, there is the usual scientific gobbledygook, but the summary is as follows: "In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance)."

What might be of concern is the current weather in the western United States.  Again quoting from the discussion: "Weak La Niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)"

Once more this is said basically backwards.  What it really means is that a weak La Niña should result in a mostly "normal" winter with a few exceptions.  Anyone looking at the deficit of January precipitation in the western United States, and especially in southern California, should be greatly alarmed that this might be the "new normal."

Alas as is all too common these days, like it or not, such are the conditions that now prevail.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Thanks for your plain English summary. Winter precipitation in the western U.S. is consistently below average and worrisome.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of the climatic moods,

Whatever the turmoil in the world these days, da' usual suspects managed another communique.  As usual you can read their claims at the usual spot on the web:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The synopsis really says it all: "La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance)."

With spring around the corner and La Niña conditions expected to fade, this situation is all but old news as it is.

The Weather Channel has an interesting set of comparisons between this La Niña and other years:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2025-02-13-la-nina-february-noaa-update

As much as we would like things to be predicable, this soap opera insists on being otherwise!

Edouard