NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2023

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The wildfire forecasts were finally updated today, so this thread can finally be started.  Here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Of course the next set of predictions are wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated October:



I'll make a brief comment, it is somewhat curious that most of the "usual suspects" for elevated wildfire risk are instead only at their "normal" level.  The elevated risk along the central south is consistent with the expected expansion of drought.

Here is the November outlook.



Here is December:



I'll tack on one more quick observation.  After October the only significant region with an elevated fire risk is once more Hawaii.  I'm sure this will be taken seriously from now on.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

November has arrived and there are a fresh set of predictions.  Here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of Autumn. 

Before starting, I'll share a link with the NOAA winter outlook press release:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north

It is basically a rehash of the information presented here with a glossy veneer

Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for November:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



I'll make one brief comment.  As you can see, the shift in rainfall should bring significant relief to the drought conditions in the middle of the country.  We shall see if this comes to pass.

Of course the next set of predictions are wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated November:



I'll add another quick comment.  It is certainly unusual to see the region around Louisiana with an elevated fire risk.  Alas sadly, the region is in drought and has suffered from wildfires for much of the summer and autumn.

Here is the December outlook.



Here is January:



I'll repeat my observation of the past few months.  After November the only significant region with an elevated fire risk is once more Hawaii.  Certainly not what you would expect from a tropical paradise.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

December has arrived and there are a fresh set of predictions.  Here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from autumn to winter. 

Before starting, I'll share a link for the Weather Channel's take on December:

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2023-11-28-december-temperature-precipitation-outlook

That way everyone also has a second opinion.

Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



I'll make a first quick comment.  This is the first time that I can recall anyway of a forecast of normal temperatures instead of equal chances.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for December:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



I'll make a second brief comment.  This forecast effectively reverse the last month's expectation that drought would be relieved in the center part of the country.

Of course the next set of predictions are wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated December:



Here is the January outlook.



Here is February:



One last quick observation.  The areas that are expecting lower than average wildfire risks are the same areas expect well above normal rainfall.  So that remains consistent.  Alas, Hawaii remains with an above average wildfire risk and the drought on most of the Hawaiian islands is expected to persist through the winter season.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard