NOAA launches new hurricane forecast model.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat users who prefer to observe extreme weather from a safe distance,

The National Hurricane Center has announced that they have new model that they are effectively "breaking in."    Here is the announcement about it:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-launches-new-hurricane-forecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong

Quoting from the article: "Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models. HAFS is expected to continue increasing forecast accuracy, therefore reducing storm impacts to lives and property. "

It goes on to note: "HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing hurricane models when forecasting storm intensity — but is better at predicting rapid intensification. HAFS was the first model last year to accurately predict that Hurricane Ian would undergo secondary rapid intensification as the storm moved off the coast of Cuba and barreled toward southwest Florida. "

It will be interesting to see what effect this new model will have the current hurricane season.

Edouard

[Blicj11]

All good news. And I am reminded of one of the reasons we moved from Houston to northern Utah 16 years ago; too many hurricanes in the Gulf. We traded hurricanes for snow and that is a trade I would make again today.

[LesCimes]

We use to live in Florida and went through a couple of hurricanes. Ugh. Glad we are not there now. Here in our Georgia locale, there have never been hurricane force winds. My weather station high wind gust is 52 mph far shy of hurricane force.

[elagache]

Thanks Blick and Michael for sharing your thoughts on the hurricane experience,

I keep an eye on the Eastern Pacific hurricanes because occasionally they contribute monsoonal moisture that gets dragged northward by the dome of high pressure that is wandering around the four-corners region.  Ironically, those hurricanes can occasionally cause dry lightning which has started wildfires in California.  There are large swaths of the country that can still be effected by the moisture spun-off from a disintegrating hurricane.

Cheers, Edouard