NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2023

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summer is officially underway and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:



As is now the practice, I'll let the graphics mostly speak for themselves.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:



Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for July:



Here is the 3 month drought outlook:



Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These are in the usual monthly format.  Here is the updated July:



Here is the August outlook:



Here is September:



As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[LesCimes]

Nice. Thanks for posting these predictions. We'll be traveling later this month to the west coast, so helpful to see some initial predictions.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

When I have time I quickly scan the headlines of Weather Underground.  This morning they had an outlook for the end of summer and start of autumn:

https://weather.com/safety/news/2023-07-18-august-september-october-temperature-outlook-united-states

I just took a look at the Climate Prediction Center forecasts for the season and they look rather different.  So I thought it might be interesting to keep track of both forecast to see which is closer to the mark.

Edouard

[Weatheraardvark]

Nice charts.  reality, most of Iowa is in drought.  We have had 2.26 inches this month, 15.64 for the year for rain and snow melt.  It is going to be in the 90s this week and no rain in the forecast.   Sooooooooo  perhaps the charts the NOAA needs to think about changing a tad bit.

[elagache]

Dear Weatheraardvark and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Nice charts. 

I'm waiting for the next forecasts from National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center.  They are typically updated on the last day of the month.  You can look at what is the current climate outlooks on their website:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

reality, most of Iowa is in drought.  We have had 2.26 inches this month, 15.64 for the year for rain and snow melt.  It is going to be in the 90s this week and no rain in the forecast.   Sooooooooo  perhaps the charts the NOAA needs to think about changing a tad bit.

It may be of scant comfort, but the current drought outlook for Iowa is that indeed drought continues but is supposed to improve.  Of course only time will tell if the forecast is correct.

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

August has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the mid-point of summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:



As is now the practice, I'll let the graphics mostly speak for themselves, although I have bit more commentary than in recent months.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:



I'll interject one quick comment.  These temperature predictions are significantly different from the Weather Channel forecasts that I posted earlier in this thread.  Here is the link to that article for reference:

https://weather.com/safety/news/2023-07-18-august-september-october-temperature-outlook-united-states

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:



Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for August:



Here is the 3 month drought outlook:



I'll add another relatively quick observation.  It appears that changes in the climate is causing a significant increase in the number of regions that will have drought start or advance.  If you compare the predictions of last month, they were not as pessimistic.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These are in the usual monthly format.  Here is the updated August:



Here is the September outlook:



Here is October:



One last quick comment.  The same point about drought also seems to apply to wildfire risk.  Regions that were expected to have a normal wildfire risk last month are now in an elevated risk because of the changes in climate.  Not surprisingly, those elevated risks drop back to normal as autumn brings in cooler weather.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

It aways amazes me how the "Wildland Fire" Potential maps use county lines... but the precip boundaries are just smoothed curves. 🤔 😳 🙄 😜

[Blicj11]

A much more accurate, more detailed, and shorter timeframe wildfire risk projection from the same Federal agency is available here (click the link on the left for your geographic region to magnify the map):

https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/psp/npsg/forecast#/outlooks?state=map

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat wildfire worriers . . . . .

A much more accurate, more detailed, and shorter timeframe wildfire risk projection from the same Federal agency is available here (click the link on the left for your geographic region to magnify the map):

Thanks Blick for sharing!  Yes indeed, I try to visit the 7-day outlook frequently during the autumn which is when the risk is worst here in California.  Usually the National Weather Service will announce severe wildfire risks, but this website gives you an overview of the entire region that is particularly useful.

Cheers, Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

September has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for transition from summer to autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for September:



As is now the practice, I'll let the graphics mostly speak for themselves with two exceptions.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for September through November:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for September:



Here is the equivalent graph for September to November:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for September:



Here is the 3 month drought outlook:



I'll add a relatively quick observation.  The trend of intensifying drought development from last month's predictions are even more stark for this month  If these predictions come to pass, the drought situation certainly looks disconcerting for the middle third of the country.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These are in the usual monthly format.  Here is the updated September outlook:



Here is the October outlook:



Finally, here is November's outlook:



One last quick comment.  If you look at these forecasts going back a few months, you will see that all of the Hawaiian islands has been at an above normal fire risk since July.  By November, it is predicted that only Hawaii will have a higher than average wildfire risk.  As the tragedy in Maui has shown, those risks were all too real even if we commonly think of the Hawaiian islands as a paradise that is immune to such risks.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat observers of the climate,

In case you wanted a second opinion on the climate predictions from the Climate Prediction Center, the Weather Channel has its own outlooks:

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2023-08-31-september-temperature-outlook-united-states

Edouard

[rpmik]

Edouard,

September has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service

Handy! Thanks for continuing to post these outlooks.

Here's the NWCG (National Wildfire Coordinating Group) outlook web map for some additional fire weather details:
https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/psp/npsg/forecast#/outlooks?state=map
... interestingly, Hawaii is not represented.

Ryan

[elagache]

Dear Ryan and WeatherCat faithful,

Handy! Thanks for continuing to post these outlooks.

You are most welcome.  I have been doing this for some years now.  The prediction graphics are stored on my own web hosting providers servers so they won't disappear.  It means we can go back and decide if the forecasts were as accurate as claimed.  I haven't used this capability much but I had remembered that Hawaii seemed to be listed as an above normal wildfire risk for some time.  Because I had kept the predictions, I could go back and see exactly how long this has been.  It might be interesting to look back at the predictions made during strong El Niño events of the past and see how they compare to the predictions we will be seeing this fall.

Here's the NWCG (National Wildfire Coordinating Group) outlook web map for some additional fire weather details:
https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/psp/npsg/forecast#/outlooks?state=map
... interestingly, Hawaii is not represented.

Yes, that is a very handy webpage.  I have bookmarked my local area and try to check it at least a few times a week during times when wildfires are more likely.  You are correct, Hawaii isn't one of the possible available geographical areas of that page even if Alaska is.  I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii ends up being added very soon!

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Seems to be to be unduly premature, but the Weather Channel released their outlook for October, November and December:

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2023-09-14-october-november-december-temperature-outlook

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has also released their 3 month outlook, but they sometimes revise the 3 month outlook when they release the 1 month outlook at the end of the month.  I certainly wouldn't make any bets based on either of these predictions, but I suppose they represent a kind of weather "daydreaming."

Edouard