Dear WeatherCat observers of extreme weather - preferably from safe distance,
As is not uncommon, NOAA has issued a revised outlook for Atlantic hurricane activity. The press release can be found here:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-forecasters-increase-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction-to-above-normalThere is also a "Reader's Digest" outlook with more technical jargon and a more compact summary.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtmlFrom there comes the key points as quoted here:
The updated 2023 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2023 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th:
14-21 Named Storms, which includes the 5 named storms recorded thus far in 2023.
6-11 Hurricanes, which includes the 1 hurricane recorded thus far in 2023.
2-5 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 105%-200% of the median, which includes the ACE from the 5 named storms (1 of which reached hurricane strength) recorded thus far in 2023.There is also a description of the changes which can be found in subsequent paragraph of this summary (also being quoted:)
Compared to the May outlook (12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes), the August update has shifted all of the likely ranges of overall activity to higher levels. Also, there is an increase in the probability of above-normal activity (increased to 60% from 30%), and a decrease in the probabilities for a near-normal season (decreased to 25% from 40%) and a below-normal season (decreased to 15% from 30%). The predicted ACE range has also been shifted higher (up to 105%-200% from 70%-145%) since major hurricanes contribute significantly to the ACE.The forecasters have made their pronouncements. I have now made sure those forecasts don't disappear by recording them on this posting. Now we can sit back and see how close the forecast turns out to be!
Cheers, Edouard
P.S. If you keep an eye on the storms in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific you will have noticed that the Eastern Pacific has been significantly more prolific than the Atlantic at the moment. Tropical storm Greg just formed while the last named storm of the Atlantic was Don. However, that is a normal process. The Eastern Pacific appears to produce conducive conditions for cyclonic formation earlier in the year. Those processes wind down earlier in the year than for the Atlantic. So usually, the Atlantic will "catch up" later in the hurricane season.
