NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2022

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the delay in posting this, but it has been unusually busy.  Here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



I will briefly add the grimly obvious, if these forecasts ring true we are facing a serious expansion of drought all the way into the Mississippi valley.

Of course the next set of predictions should be wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated October:



I'll make another brief comment, it is somewhat curious that most of the "usual suspects" for elevated wildfire risk are instead only at their "normal" level.  The elevated risk along the central south is consistent with the expected expansion of drought.

Here is the November outlook.



Here is December:



As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

November has started and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for November:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Up next is the wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated November:



These predictions are consistent with last month.

Here is the December outlook.



Here is January:



As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

December is here and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of autumn and start of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for December:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



I will briefly add the continuing point of concern.  Drought seems to be expanding through most of the country with few areas getting any relief.

Of course the next set of predictions should be wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated December:



Here is the January outlook.



Here is February:



If these forecasts pan out, at least wildfires should not be much of a concern until we approach spring.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[xairbusdriver]

Looks like even smaller chances of snow for a while, just warmer and wetter.