NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2021

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Autumn is upon us and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to the season.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



As you can see, the Climate Prediction Center has updated their graphs and they are now much larger.  I've scaled them down for forum convenience.

For October there is puzzling band of above normal temperatures with the highest temperatures centered around the Great Lakes.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



This forecast is mostly "hot everywhere" with the worst of the heat centered on Arizona and New Mexico.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



This forecasts above normal rainfall for roughly the center 1/3 of the country and the Pacific Northwest, while northern parts of the Atlantic Seaboard get below normal.

Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



There is below normal precipitation in roughly the same places that higher temperatures are expected.  Certainly not an unreasonable forecast.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



The bulk of the west remains in drought.  The exceptions are the Pacific Northwest and edges of the center of the country expected to receive above normal rainfall.

Here is the 3 month outlook:



Consistent with the below normal rainfall expected in the Southwest, areas surrounding Texas are expected to experience drought.

Of course the next set of predictions should be wildfire threats.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated October:



This forecast keeps a zone of California in above average fire risk as well as northwestern parts of the plains.    There is also a curious area along the southern Atlantic seaboard.  The area around the southern end of the Mississippi is expected to have below normal fire risk.  Here is the November outlook.



This forecast trades areas around Texas for the plains.  Here is December:



Oddly, the fire risks are expected to return to normal for California.  The areas around Texas continue at above average fire risk.  Also the region around Atlantic seaboard expands as being in above average risk.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The wildfire outlooks have arrived, so they have been added to the posting above.  In addition, Weather Underground has its own piece on what to expect this month:

https://www.wunderground.com/article/forecast/national/news/2021-09-29-october-2021-temperature-outlook-forecast

We shall see!

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

November is here and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for mid autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



For November there are two regions of above normal temperatures and no region expecting below normal temperatures.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



Like last month, this forecast is mostly "hot everywhere" with the worst of the heat centered on Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



This forecast may be influenced by La Niña with more rainfall for the northern 1/3 of the country and less for the southern 1/3.

Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



It is similar to the 1 month forecast but leaves more uncertainty.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for November:



A large swath of the Pacific Northwest is expected to see some relief from drought - even Northern California.  In contrast, areas around Texas and even parts of the old South are expected to start experiencing drought.

Here is the 3 month outlook:



It basically continues the trend of the 1 month projections.  Oddly, even Florida is expected to develop drought.

It is late in the season, but there is still some wildfire risks.  These predictions come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated November:



Once more the only area with above normal risk is are parts of the old South  Here is the December outlook.



The area of increased risk grows further south.  Here is January:



Now the area of increased risk includes Florida - consistent with the forecast of drought for that state.  In addition, parts of Texas and New Mexico also experience elevated risk.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

December is here and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from autumn to winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



This does look different from last month with apparently the expectation of high pressure taking control of much of the country centering around Texas.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



This appears to be something of a blending of earlier forecasts with the expectation of strong high pressure in the southern center of the country.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



This forecast may be influenced by La Niña but seems less optimistic than last month's forecast.

Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



It is similar to the 1 month forecast but leaves more uncertainty.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for December:



The optimism of drought relief in last month's forecast has been seriously tempered.  It appears most areas with drought will remain that way.

Here is the 3 month outlook:



It basically continues the trend of the 1 month projections. 

It is late in the season, but there is still some wildfire risks.  These predictions come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is the updated December:



There is a region increased fire risk in the northern plains and once more the southern Atlantic seaboard.   Here is the January's outlook.



The area of increased risk along the Atlantic grows further south while the rest of the US returns to normal.  Here is February:



Now the area of increased risk in the east only includes Florida.  That is curious since Florida is no longer expecting a drought.  In addition, parts of Texas,  New Mexico and nearby regions also experience elevated fire risk.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard