Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2020  (Read 394 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2020
« on: January 02, 2020, 11:55:35 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

2020 has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



It is a curious pattern.  Why colder in the West and warmer in the South?

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



While this is more typical of the Climate Predication Center, it is also hard to find any rhyme or reason.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



This is continuing a trend that I've noticed of basically failing to make a prediction for large parts of the country - Equal Chance is basically a non-prediction.  Their methodology is certainly not as predictive as it once appeared to be.   For January what is predicted is uniformly above normal.

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



In this case, the southwest and Florida are threatened with below normal precipitation.  However, once more there is uncertainty for a large part of the country.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



This prediction keeps droughts in the "usual locations."  The curious change is the elimination of a drought forecast for Northern California.  For the moment I'm not exactly reassured.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The same point about the 1 month applies to the season in general.  Honestly, I'm a bit suspicious of the methodology at this point.

The wildfire outlook remains either normal or below normal for the whole country through April so I've skipped those predication maps.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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February. (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2020)
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2020, 10:09:51 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

We are the first of February and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



Considering that the vast majority of the country is either above normal or "equal chance," this is another instance of expecting most places to be warmer.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



While this is more typical of the Climate Predication Center, it is also hard to find any rhyme or reason.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



This predication is suggesting equal chance or above normal precipitation for a large part of the county.  The two exceptions are parts of the southern plains and alas, California.

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



Once more most areas are either equal chance or above normal precipitation.  Alas, California and the desert Southwest are expected to fall short.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



This prediction keeps droughts in the "usual locations."  What has been added is parts of Oregon.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This is similar to the 1 month predication except that now drought is expected to extend down from Oregon into Northern California  Texas is expected to see some relief from drought.

The wildfire outlook remains either normal or below normal for the whole country until April.  However, the April outlook shows the first region to have above normal wildfire risk:



It certainly doesn't surprise me that the first area with elevated risk is Southern California.  Even this early in the year, it does appear that we are headed for a difficult wildfire season.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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March (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2020)
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2020, 10:46:31 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

We are the first of March and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from winter to spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



I'm not sure what to make of this purported warmth roughly east of the Rocky Mountains.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



This forecast has the east, south, and west warmer for mysterious reasons.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



This predication is suggesting equal chance or above normal precipitation for a large part of the county.  The two exceptions are almost bull's eye the center of the country and curiously Florida.

Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



Once more most areas are either equal chance or above normal precipitation.  Alas, California and the desert Southwest are expected to fall short.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



Now much of the west coast is expected to fall into drought.  Regions around the 4-corners also suffer along with parts of Texas.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This is similar to the 1 month predication.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and here is the outlook for March:
 



This forecast moves up the wildfire risk in Southern California to March.  Here is the April forecast:



It echoes the March forecast.  Here is the May forecast:



Apparently, the seasons turn the risk in Southern California back to the normal category.  Finally here is June:



Now it appears the the drier regions to the north of Sacramento face elevated wildfire risks.  This could be optimistic considering the wildfire fuel loads around Northern California are closer to June levels than the start of March.  It is definitely looking like a dangerous wildfire season for much of the western United States.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard