Author Topic: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.  (Read 964 times)

elagache

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Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Continuing the annual tradition, here is the first report from Canebas Weather Station regarding the Northern California rainy season.  This year has not gotten off to a very good start.  After a bit of rain in September, we had no rain at all in October and no rain until the last week of November.  As a result, we are already well behind which is different than the previous two years:



We only got about 31% of a normal November and that leaves us with only 24% of a normal rainfall for the wet season thus far.  The weather pattern has changed dramatically and we are experiencing our first atmospheric river event of the year.  Only time will tell if enough rain will fall to wipe out the present shortfall.

Oh well, Edouard 

P.S. I'll do the monthly climate predictions tomorrow.  I'm still struggling to catch up after all the Thanksgiving and weather-related chores.

elagache

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December (Re: Monthly reports for the North CA 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2019, 12:15:42 am »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

The forecast is for no more rain through the end of the year, so I can accomplish this posting a bit early.  December was the first wet month this season.  Although nothing extreme, we received 120% of the benchmarks I have been using for these graphs:



Alas that only made a modest dent in the precipitation shortfall.  We are now only up to 54% of rainfall we would expect to get by the end of December.

Taking a dose of my own medicine, I have been using this data as my basis for rainfall:

https://www.idcide.com/weather/ca/orinda.htm

The data is actually coming from Berkeley somewhere, at least 5 miles away from our house.  I just noticed that the average rainfall total for November seems unreasonably high at 3.62".  The 10 year average of my station data is 3.10" which seems closer to the ballpark.  I have been concerned about this data almost since I've found it, but I've never found anything better.

Oh well, Edouard 

elagache

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January (Re: Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2020, 10:08:48 pm »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

The last chance for rain has come and gone for January, so I can tally up the numbers to assess the Northern California rainfall situation.  Unfortunately, the overall trend continues as the graph shows:



It was nonetheless a peculiar January.  We had one more rainy day than the 10 year station average.  But all but one of those storms were weak.  As a result, the conditions were cold and miserable, but there was no precipitation benefit for the inconvenience.  We ended up with only 40% of the nominal normal rainfall for January.  That was enough to keep up at 54% for the rainy season to date.  At least the region remained wet for the month, so I didn't have to water.

Such are da' conditions that prevail . . . . . . . 

Edouard

The Grand Poohbah

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Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2020, 06:39:15 pm »
Edouard,

Your "Monthly and Cumulative Precipitation" report is  exactly what I'd like to do here. How can I reproduce that with my data?

--grand

elagache

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Done manually with a spreadsheet. (Re: Monthly reports)
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2020, 10:38:18 pm »
Dear Grand and WeatherCat precipitation "bean counters."

Your "Monthly and Cumulative Precipitation" report is  exactly what I'd like to do here. How can I reproduce that with my data?

All I've done is created an Excel spreadsheet that I update manually at the end of each month.  I believe monthly updates are sufficient.  I then create an image that I display on my weather website.  As mentioned elsewhere, I don't have a particularly trustworthy source of "normal precipitation values."  I don't know if you can find a report of precipitation that goes back far enough and is close enough to you to be meaningful.

I can attach a copy of the spreadsheet if that would help, but you might be able to come up with this on your own.

Let me know, . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

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Feburary (Re: Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2020, 10:18:18 pm »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

March 1st is here and so the time has come to review the precipitation at Canebas weather station.  Alas, not a drop fell during the whole month of February.  As a result, the same graph as January captures the situation:



What 29 dry days means is that we are down to only 40% of a normal rainy season through the end of February.

Oh well, Edouard

elagache

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March (Re: Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2020, 12:02:11 am »
Dear Western US drought watchers,

March is essentially over and so it is time to tally up the rainfall at Canebas Weather Station.  Here is the usual graph:



The numbers basically tell the story.  We only got 42% of a normal March.  As a result, the cumulative totals for the 2019-20 season is a dismal 41% of normal.

There is just one comparison that is telling and that is with the very dry season of 2014-15.  Here is the original thread:

https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=1392.msg11763#msg11763

Here is the graph for March 2015:



As reported back then, we only got 0.21" in March - about 5% of normal.  That left Orinda with about 67% of normal rainfall to April 1st, 2015.  Comparing the two years, 2019-20 is looking much worse than 2014-15.  Definitely a darn right discouraging state of affairs before any virus miseries are added to the burden.

Oh well, . . . . . . . Edouard

elagache

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April (Re: Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2020, 11:32:05 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

April is over so I can tally the rainfall situation for Canebas Weather station.  April did have one significant storm but that was only enough to provide us with 77% of a normal month.  That leaves is with the following graph:



The cumulative numbers are definitely discouraging.  Through April we only received 43% of normal.  If we get no more rain this season that will leave us with only 42% of normal rainfall for the year.  It is easily the worst drought situation every observed at this station and definitely points of a very dangerous wildfire season.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard

elagache

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May (Re: Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2020, 11:24:41 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

May was no small surprise in Northern California.  We have had multiple late season atmospheric river events that brought over an 1-1/2" of rain to Canebas weather station.  That's 254% of a normal May!  Here is the unexpected graph:



Sadly, it probably is only a matter of accounting.  We have already had a savage heat wave that probably removed most of the moisture that the plants got from those storms.  For the record, we'll probably end up with 48% of normal for the season.  That's still the worse drought thus far recorded at my station.

I'll report on the latest drought and wild fire outlooks in the next few days.

Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard