Dear WeatherCat El Ni?o watchers,
You may have seen a flurry of news headlines like this Newsweek report:
http://www.newsweek.com/el-nino-record-year-363108Whenever I see reports like this I . . . . look for the facts. The facts in this case are heading over to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (Enso) Diagnostic Discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.htmlThe report for August is very similar to the report for July. The key point being:
There is a greater than 90% chance that El Ni?o will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016.
Researchers aren't making any claims of a monster El Ni?o here.
Considering these are predictions not phenomena that is already happening, these reports should be taken with appropriate caution. The correct thing to do is try to plan for both possibilities. Those affected by El Ni?o need to start doing their preparations now, but also need to be concerned with the possibility that we won't have the weather normally associated with El Ni?o. For all our science, ultimately we find ourselves less certain about the climate in the future.
Edouard
