NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - September 2014

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat fans,

As promised, I have downloaded the September predictions of National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center (just like the past two months.)

Here is the forecast map for temperatures in September:



Here is the precipitation forecast map for September:



Now here are the 90 day forecasts (roughly 3 months.)

The temperature forecast map for September, October, November:



The equivalent precipitation forecast map for September, October, November:



All these maps come from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center website:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Now that July and August has passed, feel free to post your own observations as to whether or not the July and August predictions were accurate.  You can see what the predictions were for July on this thread:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=1318.0


The August predictions are here:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=1347.0

I would be really interested to know if these climate forecasts are accurate for some other part of the United States.  So far, these forecasts have been way off base for coastal Northern California.

Hope you'all find this interesting.

Cheers, Edouard 

[Blicj11]

Now that July and August has passed, feel free to post your own observations as to whether or not the July and August predictions were accurate.

Edouard, again, thanks for posting these.

I live in the mountains of northern Utah. The one month precipitation forecast for July and the three month precipitation forecast for July, August and September called for above average rainfall and that was very accurate in July and August. The same forecasts for August also called for above average rainfall and again, they were dead on. In August we had 3.84 inches of rain, more than double the previous August and about 5 times normal. The temperature forecasts called for average, which was correct in July but not in August. August was much cooler than normal. In fact, fall colours are already manifesting themselves in the trees.

[elagache]

Hi Blick and WeatherCat climate watchers,

I live in the mountains of northern Utah. The one month precipitation forecast for July and the three month precipitation forecast for July, August and September called for above average rainfall and that was very accurate in July and August. The same forecasts for August also called for above average rainfall and again, they were dead on. In August we had 3.84 inches of rain, more than double the previous August and about 5 times normal. The temperature forecasts called for average, which was correct in July but not in August. August was much cooler than normal. In fact, fall colours are already manifesting themselves in the trees.

Okay that is interesting.  The precipitation forecasts for my location were unlikely to go wrong since it is the dry season and that is what was predicted.  The temperature forecasts have insisted on a much hotter than normal conditions that simply hasn't materialized.  I'm puzzled by this because we are now going on 3 months and the forecast persists in large static feature in the climate that I see no evidence for.  The current forecast insists on hotter than normal temperatures straight through November.  It seems very odd to forecast such a static feature without some physical phenomena to back it up.

Oh well, . . . .

Cheers, Edouard