Chance of El Nino this fall raised to 78%.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

The El Nino monitoring folks have raised the likelihood of an El Nino event this fall and winter to 78%.  Here is a local newspaper report about it:

http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25723802/california-drought-el-ni-241-o-probability-raised

If you do a search of news sources, you'll see that different parts of the world are concerned about El Nino in different ways.  If the western parts of the United States get some relief from our drought, other parts of the world will end up with droughts of their own.  I assume everyone is effected by El Nino in some way.  So you might want to start thinking about what you need to do if indeed we have a significant El Nino event next fall-winter.  For me it means going from drought to flood!! 

Always something "fun" going on in California . . . .

Cheers, Edouard 

[tizza]

El Ni?o can make life hell on earth in Australia, for us it will create a dry mild winter unless it breaks down, which I hope it does because the blistering summer heat to follow in Dec-Mar can be absolutely vile, as most of you probably know we're mainly a coastal nation, population wise but where I live we had days of 44?c (111?f) in a row, then a few days break and another heatwave would hit and that was El Ni?o neutral. El Ni?o summers here are generally far worse in the eastern states unless the Indian Ocean warms and joins in too, then the entire country bakes and the fires it can cause are just horrendous. My state of Victoria in Australia and the state of California in the US are equal first as the worst places in the world for bush/wild fires. If we get the dry winter with spring rain, it creates a mass of under growth as summer approaches it dries out and it's ugly. Here's our outlook. I live in what's classified as the cold part of Australia.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-28/nrn-warm-winter/5483352?WT.ac=localnews_melbourne
 

[elagache]

Dear Paul and WeatherCat El Ni?o watchers,

El Ni?o can make life hell on earth in Australia . . .

Well, what hasn't been factored into this sort of forecast is that we are actually experiencing climate change.  Our National Weather Service was quick to point out that an El Ni?o event is no guarantee of the wet weather we desperately need.  La Nina events are supposed to bring us drought, but we had one of the wettest years during an La Nina event and this current drought has been occurring in El Ni?o neutral conditions.

So, I'm afraid El Ni?o/La Nina isn't a particular reliable indicator of the climate.  We'll just have to wait and see what actually unfolds.

Cheers, Edouard 

[tizza]

That's interesting Edouard, we were told the exact same thing recently, will it be a wet or dry el ni?o if it takes hold? I'd never our bureau of meteorology or Government actually say this to the public before.

It makes sense though where I'm from in Oz, I am on the south coast facing Antarctica, but la ni?a for us usually means severe flooding and boy did it go crazy here in 2011 with a strong one in place after an el ni?o in 2009-10 that seemed to only effect the south eastern part of Oz, then la nina turned it from drought to severe flooding.

Where I live the impacts of either can be hit or miss just as you've suggested. I am actually living in what's classified as a temperate climate, but Jan and Feb 2009 during an El Ni?o, I witnessed the worst fires I've ever seen, accompanied by the worst heatwave I've ever experienced. This summer was very slow to get going and was el ni?o neutral but it smashed us after a very cool Dec. By mid Jan heat records tumbled, global warming wasn't factored in, but we need this recognised as going from cool rainy 21?c (70?f) to 44?c (111?f) in a matter of days and persisted on and off for 2 months before backing off. The weirdest thing about this entire thing that people didn't notice was that the daytime max during the 5-6 month period didn't drop below 20?c (68?f) and is now the longest warm stretch on record where I live. The general public still snort at these things which are so important yet 2013 was Australia's hottest year on record and I think the top 10 hottest years are almost all from this century and they think 2014 might beat 2013 which was a neutral year! So I agree with you completely when you say we just have to wait and see, ni?o's or not. June is our driest month so we won't know anything until the trend unfolds by late August.

Good topic, cheers!