NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2024

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is a new year and a new season and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



I'll provide one quick observation that perhaps others had overlooked like me.  Sadly Hawaii continues to have ongoing drought.  What I had not noticed was that Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands is also suffering from drought.  Certainly not what one would expect for islands surrounded by relatively waters. 

Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is January:



Here is the February outlook.



Finally, here is March:



Unfortunately, the wildfire threat in Hawaii remains.  By March, even Puerto Rico has an elevated wildfire threat as a result of the drought on that island.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is February and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Like last month, drought continues for US tropical islands.

I had hoped the wildfire picture would be quiet so that I could omit them.  However, there is a bit of surprise so here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is February:



Here is the March outlook.



Finally, here is April:



The good news is that the wildfire situation improves in the tropics.  The curiosity is the elevated threat in the neighborhood of Minnesota and Wisconsin.  That area is in a drought, but it isn't projected to get worse and there are definitely other parts of the country that have serious droughts.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is March and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from winter to spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



Here is the 3 month outlook:



Sadly, these forecasts propose that more parts of the country will develop drought than those parts of the country where drought will diminish.

Regrettably, it is increasingly clear that wildfires are a year around threat.  So here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is March:



Here is the April outlook.



Finally, here is May:



Sadly, Texas is expected to have an elevated fire risk in March for the very areas that are burning now.  At least the risk ends after the end of the month (assuming the predictions are accurate of course.)

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard