NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2021

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summer is officially underway and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:



It has the same overall pattern as the June forecast, but it appears to capture the strong high pressure centered roughly at the Washington, Oregon, Idaho border.  It also predicts another stable high pressure roughly in the New England region.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:



This forecast proposes that the high pressure in the 4-corners region will dominate the west.  It is definitely a "hot everywhere" sort of outlook.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:



The northern high pressure centers are supposed to reduce rainfall in those areas.  The above normal rainfall to the south could have something to do with monsoonal activity.

Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:



Curiously, the below normal rainfall to the Northwest isn't an obvious consequence of the 4-corners high pressure.  The above normal rainfall east of Texas could be a result of a more active hurricane season.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for July:



The pattern is consistent with the rainfall forecasts.  To the north less rain allows drought areas to expand.  In the south, monsoonal rains are expected to provide some relief.  Here is the 3 month outlook:



It grimly continues the overall trends of the July forecast. 

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These come only monthly.  They are all very similar so I'll just list all three.  Here is the updated July:



Here is the August outlook.



Here is September:



The risk in the West remains mostly constant.  I believe the variations are more likely due many areas simply having more or less fire risk as the summer progresses.  In the Mississippi river system below average fire risks are expected although this diminishes as finally the rains start to diminish.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

The National Weather Service also released a La Nina Watch for our coming winter in the US. According to what I gathered from their analysis, our coming winter will either be drier, wetter, warmer, or colder than "normal." Very helpful.

[xairbusdriver]

And don't forget "variable"!

Pretty picture anyway...

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

We are headed toward the halfway point of summer and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:



It has the same overall pattern as the July forecast, but the high pressures appear to shift eastward.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:



This forecast is very similar to the previous month's forecast.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:



The northern high pressure centers are supposed to reduce rainfall in those areas.  The above normal rainfall to the southwest is presumably more monsoonal activity.

Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:



This forecast is once more very similar to last month's with the boundaries shifted to the east.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for August:



The pattern is consistent with last month's.  To the north less rain allows drought areas to expand.  In the south, monsoonal rains are expected to provide some relief.  Here is the 3 month outlook:



It grimly continues the overall trends of the July forecast. 

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  Here is the updated August:



As you would expect, the monsoon rains are reducing the wildfire threat in those areas.  Here is the September outlook.



The regions that drain into the Mississippi will have lower wildfire risks, while the west is at the expected elevated risk.  Here is October:



As before, the variations in the west more likely due many areas simply having a normal more or less fire risk as the summer progresses.  The elevated risk in the old south is curious.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Edouard:

We need some better forecasts for the western U.S. Can't you put on your PhD weather cap and get to the bottom of all this "hot and dry"?

[elagache]

Dear Blick and WeatherCat observers of the overall scheme of things, . . . . .

We need some better forecasts for the western U.S. Can't you put on your PhD weather cap and get to the bottom of all this "hot and dry"?

  . . . . . I dunno' . . . . . The more I look at the news - the more I have the feeling we need to pull the ripcord and get on with the second coming!! . . . . . . . . . . 

Cheers, Edouard 

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is September and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from summer to autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for September:



Compared to August, September is more uncertain with smaller bands of either hotter or colder temperatures.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for September through November:



This forecast is very similar to the seasonal forecasts for much of the summer.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for September:



This forecast is virtually identical to August.

Here is the equivalent graph for September to November:



This forecast also looks the same as the August predictions.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for September:



This is also essentially the same as last month and presumably assumes monsoon rains for the desert southwest.  Here is the 3 month outlook:



It is also very much a broken record.  The only surprise is that for whatever reason, the higher resolution image wasn't available.   

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  Here is the updated September:



This is a pattern we have seen before.  Increased fire risk in the west while the drainage of the Mississippi has a reduced risk - perhaps assuming an active hurricane season.  Here is the October outlook.



There is a new region along the Atlantic seaboard to parts of the south that have a higher risk.  I'm not sure what is driving this concern.  Apparently many regions in the west are expected to return to their "usual" level of risk  Here is November:



Once more the east coast risk remains elevated.  Most of the west has gone back to a normal risk level except for parts of Northern California.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard