Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2021  (Read 25 times)


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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2021
« on: April 04, 2021, 10:46:38 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the delay, I started nibbling on this posting at the beginning of the week, but couldn't finish it until today.  Here are the latest National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:

As has become common, temperatures in most of the country is expected to remain above normal.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:

This 3 month forecast is similar to the April forecast.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:

This has either below normal or equal chance for almost all of the United States.

Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:

Once more a large swath of the country can expect below normal rainfall with the exception of the Northern Atlantic seaboard and around the Great Lakes.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for April:

This forecast holds most drought areas in place.  Curiously, drought is expected to start in the Northern Altantic seaboard and portions of the Great Lakes.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:

This predicts increasing regions of drought in the west.  The blip on the eastern seaboard is expected to disappear as above normal rains return to the region.  Curiously, Florida continues to suffer from drought.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and here is the April forecast:

It is similar to last month with a curious region around the Dakotas having an elevated risk.  Here is the May forecast

The desert Southwest shows elevated risk as drought stricken Florida.  Here is the June forecast:

Presumably, the risk in Texas mostly reverts to normal.  Otherwise the map remains similar with the addition of regions of Oregon and Washington state.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . .