NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2021

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the delay, I started nibbling on this posting at the beginning of the week, but couldn't finish it until today.  Here are the latest National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:



As has become common, temperatures in most of the country is expected to remain above normal.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:



This 3 month forecast is similar to the April forecast.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:



This has either below normal or equal chance for almost all of the United States.

Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:



Once more a large swath of the country can expect below normal rainfall with the exception of the Northern Atlantic seaboard and around the Great Lakes.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for April:



This forecast holds most drought areas in place.  Curiously, drought is expected to start in the Northern Altantic seaboard and portions of the Great Lakes.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This predicts increasing regions of drought in the west.  The blip on the eastern seaboard is expected to disappear as above normal rains return to the region.  Curiously, Florida continues to suffer from drought.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and here is the April forecast:
 



It is similar to last month with a curious region around the Dakotas having an elevated risk.  Here is the May forecast



The desert Southwest shows elevated risk as drought stricken Florida.  Here is the June forecast:



Presumably, the risk in Texas mostly reverts to normal.  Otherwise the map remains similar with the addition of regions of Oregon and Washington state.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It has been another hectic start to the month, but here are the latest National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for May:



Continuing the trend, temperatures in most of the country is expected to remain above normal.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for May through July:



This 3 month forecast is much more extreme than the May forecast.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for May:



There is a large swatch of below normal in the west and equal chance for most of the rest of the country.  The exception is the Mississippi river system which might mean for flooding for that region.

Here is the equivalent graph for May to July:



Once more a large swath of the country can expect below normal rainfall with the exception of the Northern Atlantic seaboard and around the Great Lakes.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for May:



This forecast holds most drought areas in place.  The droughts around the great lakes are expected to improve.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This predicts increasing regions of drought in the west.  The rest of the country should get better.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and here is the May forecast:
 



This is more typical with increased fire risk in the desert Southwest.  Here is the June forecast



As had to be expected, elevated fire risk move north in Utah and Colorado.  The Northern parts of California and Eastern parts of Oregon and Washington start to have increased risks.   Here is the July forecast:



Oddly, the deserts are no longer at an elevated risk - presumably because the conditions are not as unexpected and perhaps because of some hoped monsoonal rains.  However, states to the north continue to expand in their risks as does much of California.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the delay, but the climate forced me into some wild-fire preparations around the house.  Belatedly, here are the latest National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts for the last few weeks of spring and the start of summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for June:



Much of the country is either above normal or equal chance.  There is a curious region of below normal temperatures centered at the Texas Louisiana border.  It is also curious how the Pacific coast is just outside the above normal temperature forecasts for the west.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for June through August:



This 3 month forecast is back to the "hot everywhere" sort of prediction.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for June:



Below normal is expected from the Pacific Northwest continuing eastward.  The same region with below normal temperatures at the Texas Louisiana border is expected to have above normal rainfall.  However that region extends all the way to the eastern seaboard.

Here is the equivalent graph for June to August:



There is a curious "S" from the Pacific Northwest to New Mexico that is expected to have below normal rainfall.  As forecasted in previous months, the Atlantic seaboard is expecting above normal rainfall.  Added to the bounty is much of the south to Texas.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for June:



The west remains locked drought and drought has spread to great lakes.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



Sadly, this is basically more of the same.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and here is the June forecast:
 



This is more typical with increased fire risk in the desert Southwest.  Also areas from Northern California to Washington are at a higher risk.  Areas around Texas were additional rainfall is expected have a lower risk.  Here is the July forecast



As had to be expected, elevated fire risk moves north into Utah and Colorado.  In addition to Oregon and Washington, more of California starts to have increased risks.   Here is the August forecast:



As forecast last month, states to the north continue to expand in their risks.  Roughly the same regions are at risk in Washington, Oregon, and California.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard