Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2021  (Read 178 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2021
« on: January 02, 2021, 10:04:40 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The new year has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



This forecast concludes above normal temperatures or an equal chance.  Nothing is expected to have below normal temperatures this month.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



This is also has the "hot everywhere" feel to it.  The exception appears to be due to a colder jet stream passing across the northern parts of the western half of the country.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



Much of the country is expected to receive above normal precipitation. 

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:



This prediction once more has northern states benefiting from additional rainfall while southern states suffer.  This could be once more an effect of La Nina.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:



Much of the west is expected to continue with drought, but the increase in rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is expected to provide at least some relief.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



While there is some relief in the Pacific Northwest, drought remains for a large part of the West and spreads though a large part of the South.

The wildfire outlook remains either normal or below normal for the whole country through April with the exception of regions of Texas.  Those interested in those maps can look them up for themselves here:

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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February (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2021)
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2021, 10:56:39 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is the first of February and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



This forecast puts much of the country in below normal temperatures.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



This is also has the "hot everywhere" feel to it.  The exception appears to be due to a colder jet stream passing across the northern parts of the western half of the country just like last month.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



Much of the country is expected to receive above normal precipitation, except alas the drought-parched California and southwestern states.

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



This prediction once more has northern states benefiting from additional rainfall while southern states suffer.  This could be once more an effect of La Nina even if this effect is supposed to fade by spring.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:



Much of the west is expected to continue with drought.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



While there is some relief in the Pacific Northwest, drought remains for a large part of the West and spreads though a large part of the South.  It is similar to the forecast from last month.

The wildfire outlook unfortunately started to become a concern even this early in the season.   I decided to include the February outlook:



In comparison here is the April outlook:



Wildfire threats start in Texas and eventually spread to the southern California border.  It is hardly a surprise but it is looking like 2021 will be even worse than 2020.  For more information you can visit the same website where these images came from:

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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March (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2021)
« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2021, 11:06:48 pm »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It has been a hectic start to March at this household, but at last, here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the transition from Winter to Spring.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



This forecast puts most of the country in above normal temperatures with a curious sliver along the west coast of below normal temperatures.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



This is also has the "hot everywhere" feel to it with a hint of cold perhaps associated once more with a fading La Nina.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



There is a curious band of above normal precipitation expected beneath the Great Lakes.  Below normal precipitation is expected in the desert southwest.

Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



This graph roughly continues the trends of the March predictions. 

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for March:



Much of the west is expected to continue with drought.  Texas is expected to get worse along with Florida.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



While there is some relief in the Pacific Northwest, the drought pattern remains sadly the same for the most part.

The wildfire outlook unfortunately started to become a concern even this early in the season.   I decided to include the March outlook:



In comparison here is the May outlook:



Wildfire threats start in Texas and eventually spread to the southern California border.  It is hardly a surprise but it is looking like 2021 will be even worse than 2020.  For more information you can visit the same website where these images came from:

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard