NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Spring 2020

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The first full month of Spring has arrived and here are the National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:



This outlook seems similar to last month and if it pans out will make the flooding situation worse for many parts of the country.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:



This 3 month forecast has the same characteristics as last month.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:



This has either above normal or equal chance for the entire continental United States.

Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:



This is a bad forecast on all counts.  Areas likely to suffer from flooding are expected to get above normal precipitation while areas in drought will get less.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for April:



This forecast holds most drought areas in place.  The one exception is drought developing in Florida.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This predicts increasing regions of drought in the west.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and the first that shows a higher risk of wildfire is May:
 



This shows the first elevated wildfire risk in Arizona.  Here is the June forecast



In addition to Arizona, elevated risk begins in Nevada, Utah, and portions of Northern Californa.  Oddly, fire risks decrease along southern California coast.  Here is the July forecast:



For July, a large part of the Pacific Northwest faces an elevated fire risk.  The lower Mississippi river region has a lower risk because presumably flooding has wetted the region more than normal - not exactly good news either.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

That July potential fire risk is getting close to my backyard. A terrible fires season is not what we need this summer.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The first of May has arrived and here are the National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for May:



This outlook is definitely harsh on the Southwestern parts of the United States.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for May through July:



This 3 month forecast has the entire country either above normal or with an equal chance of any of the 3 outcomes.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for May:



Once more there is considerable uncertainty for the majority of the country.

Here is the equivalent graph for May to July:



This is similar to last month's forecast and will once more make the flooding situation worse.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for May:



This forecast keeps the west the same or worse while droughts along the gulf improve.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



It is basically the same forecast extended further into the year.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly.  Here is the May outlook:
 



This shows the first elevated wildfire risk in Arizona.  Here is the June forecast



In addition to Arizona and its border regions, elevated risk begins in portions of Northern Californa.  Oddly, fire risks decrease along southern California coast.  Here is the July forecast:



For July, a large part of the Pacific Northwest faces an elevated fire risk as well as the states of the 4-corners region.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[Blicj11]

Hot and dry times ahead in the western US.

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

June has arrived and here are the National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts for the transition from Spring to Summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for June:



This is a prediction of basically everywhere being hotter than normal.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for June through August:



While not as extreme, it is similar to the 1 month outlook.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for June:



Like last month, there is considerable uncertainty for most of the country.  The good news is above normal rainfall for the Pacific Northwest.  The bad news is apparently the gulf states can expect above normal rain probably from cyclonic activity. 

Here is the equivalent graph for June to August:



This is similar to last month's forecast and will once more make the flooding situation worse in the east while making droughts in the west worse.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for June:



Sadly most drought areas remain the same or get worse.  There is very little improvement.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



It is basically the same forecast extended further into the year.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly.  Here is the June outlook:
 


This forecast is consistent with previous forecasts for June.  Here is the July forecast



The reduced fire risk in the east starts to wane as the flooding risks decrease.  Consistent with the increasing drought, the areas at elevated risk in the west starts to cover many states.

  Here is the August forecast:



Paradoxically, the elevated threat in many areas is dropped.  Presumably because there is always a serious risk of fire in those states by August.  It is correct methodology if counter-intuitive.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard