NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2014

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:



Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:





Cheers, Edouard 

[HantaYo]

California is looking good.  Hopefully this pans out

[elagache]

Howdy Jeff and WeatherCat climate watchers,

California is looking good.  Hopefully this pans out

Unfortunately and fortunately, depending on your perspective, the January forecast for California seems to be holding up thus far.  We are back to that darn blocking ridge of high-pressure and I'm close to having to start watering again . . . .

On the other hand, if it is a temporary lull in the rain and the spigot does get turned back on later in the year as the 3 month forecast predicts, we'll be fine.  All we can do is hope!

Cheers, Edouard 

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:



Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:



Call it a gripe but the climate prediction center was completely unable to predict the return of the blocking high pressure when it is the third year in a row that the winter weather pattern had unfolded in this way.  Whatever tools they are using to predict the climate, they clearly are lacking an understanding of the mechanisms that bring this high pressure in January.

Cheers, Edouard 

[LesCimes]

I wonder if these long range forecasts are any better than the Farmers' Almanac. Hope they are right for my area - cooler temperatures and more rainfall. We usually have too much warmth and too little rain.

[elagache]

Dear LesCimes and WeatherCat fans of the Farmer's Almanacs

I wonder if these long range forecasts are any better than the Farmers' Almanac.

Darn it!    I wanted to buy a copy of the Old Farmer's Almanac and compare the forecasts head to head.  Alas I forgot to buy a copy.  Oh well, maybe next year.

Cheers, Edouard 

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:



Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:



Definitely looks bad for California's drought miseries,

Oh well, . . . .

Edouard

[HantaYo]

Kinda surprised California is not in the above precipitation area.   I thought there would be a more zonal flow with El Nino?  If Arizona and New Mexico wet the moisture would be coming more from from California.

[elagache]

Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Kinda surprised California is not in the above precipitation area.   I thought there would be a more zonal flow with El Nino?  If Arizona and New Mexico wet the moisture would be coming more from from California.

Alas, this isn't a typical El Nino pattern at all.  Instead it looks almost identical to the past few years were high pressure remains in control of much of the west coast.  I think the effect of El Nino is being seen to the south.  Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico are getting some moisture that is slipping under the high pressure to the south.

What is getting really worrisome is that this ridge is really hanging tough.  Last year we had at least one major rain event per month.  That was enough to eek us into a situation of minimal rationing.  However, the reservoirs are now seriously depleted and the rainfall is behind last year's pace.  It looks like the first 2 weeks of March will be mostly dry.  So time is running short for any more substantial rainfall and so far the weather pattern remains stubbornly dry.

Oh well, . . . .

Edouard

[HantaYo]

Looking at the National Infrared there is a stream of moisture going right through the Baja into Arizona and New Mexico.  Looks like the subtropical jet stream pumping moisture north.  Somewhere I saw something describing western winter weather patterns similar to this but just cannot get my hands on it.  Most of California is equal chance of "normal" so maybe March will change in a week or two.