Author Topic: NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm start to summer.  (Read 9511 times)

elagache

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Dear WeatherCat fans,

Northern California is having its second heatwave in 2 weeks which is a somewhat unusual for May.  However, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center much of the United States should expect warmer than average temperatures.  That includes the east and west coasts of the country and all of the south.  Only parts of North Dakota and Montana can expect cooler than normal temperatures for the next 3 months.  You can look at all the details on their website:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

No big surprise but drought conditions present in the west are expected to continue throughout the summer.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

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Re: NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm start to summer.
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2014, 12:39:38 AM »
No big surprise but drought conditions present in the west are expected to continue throughout the summer.
Yes, it's looking quite dry for the west. Not good news for those of us who like a little drinking water. :(

But thanks for posting the news.
Blick


Steve

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Re: NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm start to summer.
« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2014, 06:36:18 PM »
Sorry for being MIA here lately. Lots going on this spring.

You know when you see photos and videos of snow in the heat of summer, and it makes you feel a little cooler? Well, in that vein, I'll mention that we had 4.89" of rain here over the past week. I'm so glad we have sandy soil here, as neighborhoods across town had 4-5 FEET of water in their basements. We didn't even have any standing water, and the truck farm behind us was plowing the field two days after the biggest deluge.

 [rain2]
Steve - Avon, Ohio, USA


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elagache

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Still stubborn . . . (Re: NWS CPC forecasts a warm start to summer. )
« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2014, 09:41:28 PM »
Howdy Steve, and WeatheCat fans,

Sorry for being MIA here lately. Lots going on this spring.

Glad to have you back!  We did miss ya'!

You know when you see photos and videos of snow in the heat of summer, and it makes you feel a little cooler? Well, in that vein, I'll mention that we had 4.89" of rain here over the past week. I'm so glad we have sandy soil here, as neighborhoods across town had 4-5 FEET of water in their basements. We didn't even have any standing water, and the truck farm behind us was plowing the field two days after the biggest deluge.

 ;) . . . 4.89" of rain and you didn't share!! . . .   >:(  Not that it would help much, but the rainfall for a "normal" May around here would be 0.61" and we have . . . 0.01"

However, I just checked the NWS Climate Prediction Center and they remain stubborn as a mule.  They are expecting a hot summer in a long crescent from the east to west coast and all the southern parts of the United States.  That hasn't been what Northern California has experienced the past few summers.  I wonder what they see different in the way that this summer is setting up to make that prediction.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

P.S. We do plan our TV viewing to try to counteract the weather.  So I try to collect shows about the cool locations for the summertime and shows about hot places for winter.  During a heatwave at least, it does seem to keep my mind a little bit off the heat.  I'm not so sure that watching deserts makes me any warmer in the wintertime though. . . .


Steve

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4.89" of rain and you didn't share!!

There is still some in the bird bath. I can put it in an old mayonnaise bottle and send it to you. ;)
Steve - Avon, Ohio, USA


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Blicj11

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I can put it in an old mayonnaise bottle and send it to you. ;)

Ha ha! Now yer talking! Edouard might even spring for the shipping if he could see what rainwater looks like.
Blick


elagache

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How dry I am!! . . . (Re: NWS CPC forecasts a warm start to summer. )
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2014, 10:09:05 PM »
Howdy Steve, Blick, and WeatherCat climate watchers . . . . .

There is still some in the bird bath. I can put it in an old mayonnaise bottle and send it to you. ;)

 ;) . . . . *Sniff*, . . . . I dunno' why, but that doesn't seem to make me feel any less dry!!

The good news - if that's the word for it - is that our water district managed to get sufficient allocations that we are only under voluntary 10% reductions.  So we don't have to actively decide which plants will live or die.  Saving 10% isn't that hard.  Unfortunately, we have lost already one pear tree despite our best efforts.

Sure am hoping for a really wet El Nino this fall!!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Steve

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Re: NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm start to summer.
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2014, 08:15:38 PM »
I just can't imagine having to allocate/conserve water like that. I realize why, just boggles my mind. I'm sure the other great California things like earthquakes, fires, mudslides, etc. make up for it though. ;)
Steve - Avon, Ohio, USA


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elagache

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More like bad roads than bad weather. (Re: Warm start to summer.)
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2014, 09:56:31 PM »
Hi Steve and WeatherCat social observers,

I just can't imagine having to allocate/conserve water like that. I realize why, just boggles my mind. I'm sure the other great California things like earthquakes, fires, mudslides, etc. make up for it though. ;)

Alas, that isn't the way to understand what is happening to California.  Think more about how our infrastructure has declined all over the United States and then you'll understand the problem.

In 1976, California experienced the first serious drought of modern times.  During that drought there wasn't enough water to go around for about 20 million Californians.  Almost 40 years later, there has been a few improvements to the water system - maybe increasing capacity to something like 25%.  Yet the population of California has almost doubled.  The geological record shows that this area have droughts which are much more severe than any modern population of California has experienced.  Clearly California isn't prepared for serious droughts and the public isn't interested in applying the available technology to permit the state to deal with severe droughts without serious hardship.

Like so many things in life: you can pay now when the cost is low and there is time to prepare - or you can pay later when it is a crisis and it really hurts. 

What boggles the mind is that 50-100 years ago people were far less well educated and we had less money to spend than today - but as a society, we did a much better job of making sure infrastructure kept up with the population.  Today when everyone should understand the importance of infrastructure and government budgets dwarf those a century ago - infrastructure seems doomed to an irreversible decline.

I sure would like to believe that smart people are trying to get a handle on the paradox - but alas this is one of those situations where optimism is hard to come by.

Edouard

Steve

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Re: NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm start to summer.
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2014, 11:13:55 PM »
That sounds like a frustrating situation. Didn't mean to pour salt on old wounds.
Steve - Avon, Ohio, USA


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Randall75

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Re: NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a warm start to summer.
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2014, 12:06:46 PM »
Hi Edouard and Steve
 I don't under a stand why our government won't build desaltment plants along the ocean to have water pumped up In to storage in the mountain so that there is water or to the Colorado river systems
Yeah it cost billions but hell they waste that much each year


We already let China come and get fresh water out of our Great Lakes most people don't know this


cheers


 [cheers1]

elagache

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Science as "fashion" not a real tool. (Was: Warm start to summer.)
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2014, 10:40:08 PM »
Hi Steve, Randall, and WeatherCat social observers,

That sounds like a frustrating situation. Didn't mean to pour salt on old wounds.

No worries, but it is important that people understand we have choices we can make in such matters.  200 years ago people moving to California had no idea what the climate was like.  When a drought hit they suffered - not knowing better.  Supposedly, we are now an enlightened people armed with education that should permit us to make wise decisions.  What frightens me is that the public and government officials clearly engage in a kind of denial game.  Situations like this should never happen, but Californians simply respond like grade-school children.  We are a society that has committed itself to a future based on rational deliberations on how to best solve our problems.  Then inexplicably when such situations arise, people don't do the work of reasoning out the best solution.  It is their own future that is also on the line - yet, people don't seem to care.  They most certainly will care when disasters strikes and the possible disasters multiply each day.

I don't under a stand why our government won't build desaltment plants along the ocean to have water pumped up In to storage in the mountain so that there is water or to the Colorado river systems
Yeah it cost billions but hell they waste that much each year

I don't know what is the best strategy.  I still suspect we could be better off by vastly expanding the number of reservoirs.  If we stored enough water during wet years, we should be able to last through dry ones.  There is another obvious benefit that is overlooked in building reservoirs.  Bodies of water are a kind of habitat that is extremely rare in arid areas and it provides an important place for recreation.

Still, I'm willing to allow for a rational assessment of the various options and a plan based on the best interest of the both the public and the environment.  Such things are open questions and it should be possible to come up with reasonable answers.  Probably some mix of technologies is the best strategy.

What really scares me is that people really hype up science but seem incapable to actually applying science where it seems appropriate.  Here is one example that should leave you a bit shaken: 

The Google corporation just received permission to construct new buildings at Moffett Naval Airstation near San Jose, CA (the former base of the airship Macon.)    Google taken an official corporate opinion that human-induced global warming is a real phenomena and has lobbied governments to act on this problem.  However, Google is now planning to construct new buildings at a location that is at the edge of San Francisco Bay - thus, nearly at sea level.  According to Google's own position on global warming, sea levels are likely to rise - especially considering the recent reports about ice melting in Antarctica.

Most people would agree that the managers of Google are among the "smartest" people on planet Earth.  Yet, on the one hand they insist we are facing a disaster from global warming - including significant sea level rising.  Yet, these same "very smart" managers apparently have no concerns about creating new infrastructure that would be extremely vulnerable to the very sea level rises they claim are forthcoming. . . . . . .

Uh, who is kidding who around here?

I get really scared when a top-flight company like Google can be so incapable of using rudamentary logic in a situation like this.

Oh well, . . . .

Edouard

Blicj11

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What frightens me is that the public and government officials clearly engage in a kind of denial game.

Edouard:

Don't worry about it. Thanks to the Affordable Healthcare Act, all of our problems have now been solved.
Blick


elagache

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Plans of men and mice . . . (Was: Warm start to summer.)
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2014, 10:04:21 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat stand-up comic cynics, . . . . .  ;D

Don't worry about it. Thanks to the Affordable Healthcare Act, all of our problems have now been solved.

There is just one little thing wrong with the Affordable Healthcare Act . . . . . we can't afford it!  :(

 ;) But don't worry, those super-geniuses in the sillycon valley have that problem licked too!

Have you noticed, all the "big cheeses" in the silicon valley have gotten very interested in space technology?  Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, even Google is getting in the act.  So what's their big secret plan? . . . .

Why we all learned it as children!  Everybody knows the Moon is made of green cheese!  So all we need to do is start mining that cheese and bringing it back to earth. 

Why?  We'll sell it to the rats and mice!   

Have you ever considered how many rats and mice there are on earth?  What a huge and utterly untapped market!!!  We'll be rich beyond our dreams!!! . . . . . . . .
::) . . . .  [lol2]


Ya' think things where this bad at the end of Rome? . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]