NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2024

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summer is officially underway and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:



I'll let the graphics mostly speak for themselves, although there is more to talk about this year.  Certainly there is concern about heat this year which more intense than last year.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:



Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:



Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for July:



Here is the 3 month drought outlook:



Just one quick observation.  It definitely is looking that the whole nation is facing and increasing threat from drought.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These are in the usual monthly format.  Here is the updated July:



Here is the August outlook:



Here is September:



Not surprisingly, with the increasing risk of drought, no part of the country is benefiting from less than average wildfire threat.  The only somewhat encouraging trend is that as the autumn approaches the risk is tending toward seasonal norms instead of getting worse.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

We are rapidly approaching the midpoint of summer and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for August.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:



If the one month and three month forecasts hold up, this summer will continue to be a hot one for a large swath of the country.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:



Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:



On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for August:



Here is the 3 month drought outlook:



Hardly a big surprise, but the expanding drought in the northern and western parts of the country are consistent with the decreased rainfall and hotter than normal temperatures.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These are in the usual monthly format.  Here is the updated August:



Here is the September outlook:



Here is October:



While these forecasts propose that regions further to the west are at an increase risk for wildfires, it is clear that the drought and hotter temperatures increasing the wildfire risk.  Certainly that is what would be expected.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

[elagache]

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

September has arrived and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of summer and start of autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for September:



Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for September through November:



If the one month and three month forecasts hold up, summer will transition to a hot autumn for a large swath of the country.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for September:



Here is the equivalent graph for September to November:



These forecasts appear to be expecting La Niña to have same effect on precipitation as in past years.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for September:



Here is the 3 month drought outlook:



It is a bit puzzling that the droughts in the extreme south are expected to ease even if below normal rainfall is expected.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These are in the usual monthly format.  Here is the updated September:



Here is the October's outlook:



Here is November:



If these forecasts hold up, we can expect a normal wildfire season after September for most of the country.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard