Author Topic: So exactly how dry has it been in California?  (Read 10668 times)

elagache

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Alas, not what is forecasted (Re: How dry has it been in California?)
« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2014, 07:08:28 PM »
Hi Jeff and WeatherCat drought sufferers,

Finally 3" of snow with .26" of prec.  More light snow in the forecast but most of the precip heading north.  I hope this pattern of every month or several weeks without meaningful precip ends real soon.

Alas, what is forecast is precisely the opposite of everybody's wishes.  We've had 3 modest storms after the monster storm of the end of February.  They bought in total only 0.69" (18mm) of rain.  The last storm completely fizzled at 0.02" (less than 1mm).  Now the forecast is for a return of the ridge of high pressure through the middle of next week, bringing summertime temperatures and of course a rapid depletion of the soil moisture.

Next week sometime, the ridge is supposed to be broken, but there are no storms that are expected to go through the opening to bring us any rain.  The current forecast is for dry conditions and above normal temperatures right up to the last week of March.  As usual, this ridge should shunt the jet stream way north, so temperatures on the eastern part of country should be driven down by the arctic air.  It might also cause extreme storms in Europe as happened during the last spell of dry weather in January.

So definitely a lot of gloom and doom.  The only hope is the same hope that has bailed us out in February.  The forecast models don't seem to be working very well beyond 1 week.  So we have to hope they are incorrect once more.  Definitely not the sort of happy situation to be left with.

Heavy sigh, . . . Edouard

elagache

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Report for March. (Re: Dry has it been in California?)
« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2014, 07:59:54 PM »
Dear WeatherCat California drought watchers,

Another month has passed so it was time to update the rainfall graphs at Canebas.  March started and ended with some reasonable storms, but the middle of the month once more was mostly dry, so the results are hardly a surprise. 



We fell behind the rainfall for a normal March by 13%.  As a result we are still behind for rainfall to March during a normal season, only having about 62% of what would be expected.  We are at only 56% or our total expected rainfall for the overall rainy season. 

More rain is expected today and Friday.  Alas, the expectation for more rain next week has been canceled for at least the first half.  The climate predication center now has most of the west below normal for the next 7-10 days.  However, normal to above normal rainfall in the following 8-14 days.  We'll see . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

elagache

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Looks like about 60% of normal. (Re: How dry has it been in California?)
« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2014, 10:15:03 PM »
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

It is the end of April and with a heat wave, no chance of any more rain.  So I can tally up the numbers for April.  Here is the updated graph:



April actually delivered 13% more rainfall then normal, but that is only a drop in the buckle considering how much rain didn't fall in December and January.  Average rainfall for May and June combined is less than 3/4" of an inch so basically this is the end of the rainy season.  Barring a wayward typhoon or other freak act of nature, California will end up limping through the summer on about 60% of a normal yearly rainfall.

All we can do is hope for a wet 2014-15!

Oh well . . . . 

Cheers, Edouard

Blicj11

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It is the end of April and with a heat wave, no chance of any more rain.  So I can tally up the numbers for April.

What? Giving up on additional rainfall for the month? You still have just under 10 hours remaining.

Actually, sorry for your pain. We woke up to 6 inches of new snow Monday morning.
Blick