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That July potential fire risk is getting close to my backyard. A terrible fires season is not what we need this summer.
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I'm a fan of Dark Sky and use it daily. I'll miss it, but I'm also looking forward to seeing what Apple does with it. A new API for iOS app developers? Built into a future iOS release? It's a good product and I'm hoping for even better things from Dark Sky by Apple.
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Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The first full month of Spring has arrived and here are the National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center forecasts.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for April:



This outlook seems similar to last month and if it pans out will make the flooding situation worse for many parts of the country.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for April through June:



This 3 month forecast has the same characteristics as last month.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for April:



This has either above normal or equal chance for the entire continental United States.

Here is the equivalent graph for April to June:



This is a bad forecast on all counts.  Areas likely to suffer from flooding are expected to get above normal precipitation while areas in drought will get less.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for April:



This forecast holds most drought areas in place.  The one exception is drought developing in Florida.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This predicts increasing regions of drought in the west.

Alas, it is clear that the wildfire season is going to start early.  Here are the predictions from the National Interagency Fire Center which is part of the National Interagency Coordination Center.  These only come monthly and the first that shows a higher risk of wildfire is May:
 



This shows the first elevated wildfire risk in Arizona.  Here is the June forecast



In addition to Arizona, elevated risk begins in Nevada, Utah, and portions of Northern Californa.  Oddly, fire risks decrease along southern California coast.  Here is the July forecast:



For July, a large part of the Pacific Northwest faces an elevated fire risk.  The lower Mississippi river region has a lower risk because presumably flooding has wetted the region more than normal - not exactly good news either.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard
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Observations / Re: What has been the 2019 climate according to WeatherCat?
« Last post by Blicj11 on April 01, 2020, 10:52:14 pm »
From the mountains of northern Utah:
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Observations / What was the March 2020 climate according to WeatherCat?
« Last post by elagache on April 01, 2020, 10:39:49 pm »
Dear Steve, X-Air and WeatherCat climate watchers,

By tradition, I'll give WeatherCatRCP its usual plug:



The rainfall has already been reported elsewhere.  In other news it was colder than normal and windier than normal.  The temperature is a reversal from the previous month, but the winds are steadily stronger these days.

Oh well
, . . . . . . Edouard
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Observations / Re: What has been the 2019 climate according to WeatherCat?
« Last post by xairbusdriver on April 01, 2020, 05:27:03 pm »
March was...
   Warmer than average (57.5°F versus an average of 54.1)
   Wetter than average (9.82 in versus an average total of 7.36)
   Calmer than average (a wind run of 610 miles versus an average of 1945)
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Observations / Re: What has been the 2019 climate according to WeatherCat?
« Last post by Steve on April 01, 2020, 03:42:43 pm »
March was...
   Warmer than average (42.29°F versus an average of 37.32)
   Wetter than average (3.71 in versus an average total of 2.51)
   Calmer than average (a wind run of 3322 miles versus an average of 3693)

My electric bill appreciates the warmer month!
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Observations / March (Re: Northern California 2019-20 rainy season.)
« Last post by elagache on April 01, 2020, 12:02:11 am »
Dear Western US drought watchers,

March is essentially over and so it is time to tally up the rainfall at Canebas Weather Station.  Here is the usual graph:



The numbers basically tell the story.  We only got 42% of a normal March.  As a result, the cumulative totals for the 2019-20 season is a dismal 41% of normal.

There is just one comparison that is telling and that is with the very dry season of 2014-15.  Here is the original thread:

https://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=1392.msg11763#msg11763

Here is the graph for March 2015:



As reported back then, we only got 0.21" in March - about 5% of normal.  That left Orinda with about 67% of normal rainfall to April 1st, 2015.  Comparing the two years, 2019-20 is looking much worse than 2014-15.  Definitely a darn right discouraging state of affairs before any virus miseries are added to the burden.

Oh well, . . . . . . . Edouard
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Thanks for the update Ken.
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Another winner, Bill!
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