Trixology

Weather => Observations => Topic started by: elagache on November 01, 2016, 10:24:35 PM

Title: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: elagache on November 01, 2016, 10:24:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

As last year, I thought I would report the rainfall situation here in the San Francisco East Bay.  As you might have heard on the news (or the forum!  :) ) it has been unusually wet this October in the Western United States.  The rain kept coming through last night, so I couldn't finally get a total for October until today.  Here is the graph:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Oct.jpg)

This October was the second wettest in the 7 year operation of Canebas Weather Station.  It was only topped by the extreme rains caused by Typhoon Melor in 2009.  We received 5.21" (132mm) of rain which is 380% of a normal October.  It was sufficient rain to almost reach the cumulative totals expected for the end of November!

At the moment the forecasts aren't looking so favorable for November, but long term forecasting remains more an illusion than a science.  Only time will tell.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: November's report (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on December 01, 2016, 11:37:40 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought watchers,

Northern California ended up having a very poor November as far as rain.  It was dry for almost 3 weeks of the month.  The rain that fell at the end of the month was only able to make up for about 1/2 of a normal November.  Nonetheless, because October was so wet we remain above normal for the wet season through December 1st:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Nov.jpg)

So for the moment it is very much "touch and go" for Northern California at least.

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on December 02, 2016, 01:13:07 AM
Thanks for the report. We have had more snow in October and November than we has been the case in the 9 years of my weather station installation. These are the same storms that are into your area. Keep sending them.
Title: December's report (Re: Northern CA 2016-17 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on January 02, 2017, 12:14:02 AM
Dear WeatherCat West Coast drought watchers,

Another month has passed so here is the report for the December rainfall at Canebas station.  We had several "atmospheric river" rain events so we picked up a lot of rainfall - 163% of normal to be exact. Here is the graph illustrating the point:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Dec.jpg)

Thus far, this rainy season we are at 125% of normal through December 31st.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: January's report (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on January 29, 2017, 10:54:42 PM
Dear WeatherCat West Coast drought watchers,

No rain is expected through the end of January so I decided to write up this month a bit early.  As reported during the month, Northern California ended up with epic rainfall for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Jan.jpg)

As you can see from the graph we have already received more rainfall than we normally expect for the entire rainy season!

January brought 246% of what normally falls this month.  As a result, we have 180% of the rainfall we would expect to have through the end of January for the season.

We are expecting another reasonably potent storm at the end of this week.  However, at the moment the weather is unusually warm and pleasant because of a very strong ridge of high pressure.  While we do need to dry out, we definitely do not need a 180 degree turnaround with an extended period of dry and warm weather.  The National Weather Service, Monterey office had some ominous words at the end of this afternoon's discussion:

Quote
Fairly strong indications that the next round of widespread rain will be it for awhile. The outlook for all of next week is for warmer than normal temperatures with drier than normal conditions as the ridge rebuilds back into the southwest Conus.

The Climate Prediction Center is less pessimistic with normal conditions expected for Northern California on the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and experimental week 3-4 outlook.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on January 30, 2017, 11:33:10 PM
Nice while it lasted. We set a record here with 10 feet of snow in January, containing almost 5 inches of water. 4 months into the water year and we are more than half way to the annual average. It's been a good winter for water in most of the West, so far.
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Steve on January 31, 2017, 05:38:27 PM
We set a record here with 10 feet of snow in January, containing almost 5 inches of water
Wow, that's a lot drier than I'd have expected. That's only a ratio of about 4%. Ours is typically in the 10-20% range for our wet, sloppy snow.
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on January 31, 2017, 10:07:27 PM
Our snow here is usually powder, with only a couple of wet storms each winter. The state ski industry calls it the Greatest Snow on Earth. On average we run about 12% in terms of the water to snow ratio.
Title: Back to the yo-yo? (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on January 31, 2017, 11:48:21 PM
Dear Blick, Steve, and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Nice while it lasted. We set a record here with 10 feet of snow in January, containing almost 5 inches of water. 4 months into the water year and we are more than half way to the annual average. It's been a good winter for water in most of the West, so far.

Well, that gloomy bit of forecast discussion has turned gloomy of the opposite variety.  Instead of 1 storm we are getting at least 2 perhaps 3 and once more there will be an atmospheric river tap that could bring once more a lot of rain.  So Northern California is once more staring at potential flooding problems.  Even the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above normal rainfall in the 6-10 outlook.  However the 8-14 day outlook puts Northern California at the edge of below normal rainfall.

We shall see!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on February 04, 2017, 10:39:10 PM
Edouard -- How do you create that beautiful chart ("Monthly and Cumulative Precipitation for Orinda, CA - 2016-2017")? I'd love to make one showing the precipitation in our area.
Title: Oh da' shame!! . . . (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 04, 2017, 11:05:58 PM
Dear Grand and WeatherCat infomaniacs, . . .

Edouard -- How do you create that beautiful chart ("Monthly and Cumulative Precipitation for Orinda, CA - 2016-2017")? I'd love to make one showing the precipitation in our area.

 [wink] . . . . . Oh da' shame!!  I won't be able to show my face in public no mor' . . . . . . .  lol(1)

Actually, I just created a simple Excel spreadsheet and used its graphing capabilities.  Since I process the numbers manually at the end of each month, this works just fine for me.  I can send you the spreadsheet, but it is truly just a quick and dirty set of tables.  If you have access to Excel or equivalent, you might be better off to start of scratch and avoid my clumsiness!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on February 05, 2017, 05:43:20 PM
Quote
Actually, I just created a simple Excel spreadsheet and used its graphing capabilities.

I use Excel too, but I don't know how to embed a bar chart in a line chart like you did. You are the master, teach me oh honored one. (Or you can send me the Excel spreadsheet in a personal message and I will seek guidance from your enlightened example.)
Title: REMEMBER! You're ASKIN' for IT! (Re: 2016-17 rainy season. )
Post by: elagache on February 05, 2017, 10:34:02 PM
Dear Grand and WeatherCat tinkers who have forgotten why they bothered . . . . .  :o

I use Excel too, but I don't know how to embed a bar chart in a line chart like you did.

 [wink] . . . . So you think I still remember after all these years?!?!?? . . . .  [biggrin]

You are the master, teach me oh honored one. (Or you can send me the Excel spreadsheet in a personal message and I will seek guidance from your enlightened example.)
 

 [wink] . . . .  Remember!!  You're Askin' for it!! . . . .  lol(1)

Okay to keep things simple, I've attached the spreadsheet to this post so anybody who is curious can take a peek (assuming they have Excel of course.)  However, this spreadsheet is a throwback to my Fortran programming days.  Don't expect any comments or nothin'!!  (Even my Fortran programs weren't this bad!  ;D )

Enjoy!  :) or grumble  >:( or something  ??? . . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on February 06, 2017, 12:25:23 AM
Got it. Thank you.

The "trick" is to create a line chart for all the data. Select the line you want to change to a bar chart, control-click it and select "Change Series Chart Type..." Select a bar chart type. That's it!
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on February 06, 2017, 08:57:56 AM
That is why he is known as Edouard the Magnificent.
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Jace on February 06, 2017, 09:27:01 PM
That is why he is known as Edouard the Magnificent.


Usually by the crew at Orinda Motors as he pays for their holidays with all the jobs he gives them.  ThU5:-)

JC
Title: Take it easy fellers! (Was: North CA 2016-17 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 06, 2017, 11:38:44 PM
Dear Blick, JC, and WeatherCat

That is why he is known as Edouard the Magnificent.

 ;) . . . . Hey take it easy fellers!!  I don't travel faster than a speeding bullet, leap the tallest buildings, etc., etc., etc., .. . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek2.gif)

 lol(1)

Usually by the crew at Orinda Motors as he pays for their holidays with all the jobs he gives them.  ThU5:-)

Nah, I spill that duty with a buddy of mine who also gives Orinda Motors plenty of business.  In fact he should be paying the lion's share because he has: a 1956 Buick Super, a 1957 Chevrolet Bel Air, a 1965 Ford Mustang, and a 1971 Chevrolet Chevelle Malibu.  Oh did I mention his daughter's 1970 El Camino?

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: February's report (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on February 28, 2017, 11:05:55 PM
Dear WeatherCat West coast drought (? ??? ?) watchers, . . . .

February continued the trend well above normal rainfall bringing in 10.66" - 224% of normal.   As a result, the region has already received 142% of the rainfall than would be expected in an entire normal rainy season as can be seen in the current graph:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Feb.jpg)

As noted earlier, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center had a very dry outlook for March (http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2425.0).  However, this expression of gloom and doom may have been premature.  The current 6-10 day, and 8-14 day outlooks have shifted from below normal precipitation to neutral.  In addition, this morning's forecast discussion ended with this rather cryptic paragraph:

Quote
Beyond Sunday models are having difficulty with the pattern and potential for rainfall. General trend over the past few runs has been wetter with the ridge struggling to rebound. This could lead to one or two additional chances of moisture. Needless to say, anyone with outdoor plans from Sunday into the middle of next week should stay tuned.

So as da' man sez . . . . stay tuned!! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/tune_in_TV_emoticon.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on March 01, 2017, 02:11:57 AM
I like your chart. We received 23 inches of snow yesterday (an all-time daily record) but I think that storm originated over Southern Cal before it came northeast to us. So I guess you can get them all but the water content of these winter storms has been great in the western half of the US.
Title: March's report (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on March 31, 2017, 11:09:26 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate observers,

Here is the rain report from my Canebas weather station.  With the end of La Niņa, the weather appears to be more normal for Northern California.  We ended up with 88% of normal rainfall for March which is certainly within 1 standard deviation:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Mar.jpg)

Even so we are at 173% of normal for the rainy season to the end of March.  The forecast models aren't being so stable, but they were advertising another atmospheric river event starting about a week from now.  The climate predication center also is consistent with such an event.  So perhaps we shall continue to get beneficial rains.  Alas, it looks like I'll have to start watering soon, the sun is now strong enough to start drying things out.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on April 01, 2017, 02:12:03 AM
We have received a foot of snow out of this week's storm that first dropped rain on you a few days ago.
Title: April's report (Re: Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.)
Post by: elagache on April 29, 2017, 11:09:38 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

April is almost over so I can provide the tally of rain for this month.  It was another month of abundant rainfall, falling just a hair short of double what is normal for April.  Here is the graph:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Orinda%20rainfall%202016-2017/Cum_rainfall_2016-2017_Apr.jpg)

As a result, we are at 42.99" of rain when normal is just 25.4"!!  That turns out to be 175% of normal.  It is looking like May will at least start out warm and dry, but at this point the wet season is essentially over.  The time has come to start using that water so the plants can survive the heat.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: Monthly reports for the Northern California 2016-17 rainy season.
Post by: Blicj11 on May 01, 2017, 02:22:49 PM
Your April storms dropped a total of 29 inches of snow on us. This winter season, I measured almost 32 feet of snowfall at our place. This is a record and more than twice what we get in a normal winter! Our serious drought conditions were declared resolved a couple of months ago, at least for now. We haven't started to deal with runoff yet, but it is now warming up so we are being cautious. It has been quite a winter in the western United States.