Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on January 07, 2025, 12:59:09 AM

Title: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2025
Post by: elagache on January 07, 2025, 12:59:09 AM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the delay, but it is a new year and a new season and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) for the start of winter.  The one curiosity is whether or not a weak La Niña will have much of an effect on anyone's weather.

Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Temperature_outlook_Jan-2025.jpg)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Temperature_outlook_Jan-Mar-2025.jpg)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Precipitation_outlook_Jan-2025.jpg)

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Precipitation_outlook_Jan-Mar-2025.jpg)

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Drought_outlook_Jan-2025.png)

Here is the 3 month outlook:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Drought_outlook_Jan-Mar-2025.png)

Sadly, the drought forecasts suggest that more areas will fall into drought than regions that depart from it.

Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center (https://www.nifc.gov/).  As always, these come only monthly.  Since they provide an evolving picture, I'll simply display them one after the other.  Here is January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Wildfire_outlook_Jan-2025.png)

Here is the February outlook.

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Wildfire_outlook_Feb-2025.png)

Finally, here is March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Wildfire_outlook_Mar-2025.png)

The wildfire situation mirrors the precipitation and therefore drought situation.  Unfortunate, but hardly unexpected.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Title: February (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2025)
Post by: elagache on February 10, 2025, 09:44:23 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry for the unusual delay.  This month has gotten off to a particularly hectic start for me.  Better late than never, here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) for the mid-point of winter. 

Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Temperature_outlook_Feb-2025.jpg)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Temperature_outlook_Feb-Apr-2025.jpg)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-2025.jpg)

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-Apr-2025.jpg)

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Drought_outlook_Feb-2025.png)

Here is the 3 month outlook:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Drought_outlook_Feb-Apr-2025.png)

Sadly, the drought forecasts continue the trend from January.

California wildfires are sadly back in the news.  Here are the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center (https://www.nifc.gov/).  As always, these come only monthly.  Here is February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Wildfire_outlook_Feb-1-2025.png)

Here is the March outlook:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Wildfire_outlook_Mar-1-2025.png)

Finally, here is April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202025/Wildfire_outlook_Apr-2025.png)

All we can do is hope that the increased risk does not lead to another tragedy. 

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard