Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on December 31, 2016, 10:19:28 PM

Title: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017
Post by: elagache on December 31, 2016, 10:19:28 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Temperature_outlook_Jan-2017.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Temperature_outlook_Jan-Mar-2017.gif)

The expected cold in the west is something new.  This is the first time in many years I have seen a below normal temperature forecast for Northern California

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Precipitation_outlook_Jan-2017.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Precipitation_outlook_Jan-Mar-2017.gif)

In January, the old South might get some relief from drought, but Texas looks to remain in trouble.   Some parts of the Western United States are supposed to get above normal rainfall, but this prediction is nothing more than a poker face when it comes to California.

Edouard

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017
Post by: Blicj11 on January 01, 2017, 02:30:05 PM

Thanks for sharing these. I always find them fascinating. The continuing drought in the western states remains a concern for many.

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017
Post by: HantaYo on January 13, 2017, 03:43:01 AM

I think they hit the nail on the head for their Jan Precip chances in the west [snow]

Title: Shorter term forecasts more useful (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2017)
Post by: elagache on January 13, 2017, 10:56:46 PM

Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Quote from: HantaYo on January 13, 2017, 03:43:01 AM

I think they hit the nail on the head for their Jan Precip chances in the west [snow]

Well it looks correct for your location, but they completely missed the heavy rains in Northern California.  The forecasters in the Monterey office started to mention the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.  You'll find them on the upper left of their landing page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)

Obviously they aren't of as great a duration, but they seem more dependable.  If you need to plan 2 weeks out, it is better than nothing.

Cheers, Edouard

Title: February (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2017)
Post by: elagache on February 01, 2017, 10:43:06 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Temperature_outlook_Feb-2017.gif)

If this forecast proves correct, February will be an usually warm month for most of the country.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Temperature_outlook_Feb-Apr-2017.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-2017.gif)

If correct, than the Pacific Northwest of the country should continue to get above normal rainfall.

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-Apr-2017.gif)

Alas if true, the droughts in the South and parts of Texas would intensify.

Edouard

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2017
Post by: Blicj11 on February 02, 2017, 05:02:48 PM

Thanks for posting. We have snow in our local forecast for each of the next 10 days, so February is at least starting out good in the mountains of northern Utah.

Title: March predications (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2017)
Post by: elagache on March 01, 2017, 11:08:34 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Temperature_outlook_Mar-2017.gif)

It does not appear that the warm February prediction was correct.  Nonetheless, If this forecast proves correct, March will be an usually warm month for most of the country.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Temperature_outlook_Mar-May-2017.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Precipitation_outlook_Mar-2017.gif)

If correct, than the Pacific Northwest of the country should continue to get above normal rainfall while the desert Southwest would return to drought.

Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202017/Precipitation_outlook_Mar-May-2017.gif)

If true, the droughts in the Southwest would intensify.

Edouard