Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on October 13, 2016, 11:07:50 PM

Title: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: elagache on October 13, 2016, 11:07:50 PM
Dear WeatherCat weather watchers,

Those of us in the USofA at least may have discovered that a useful way to decide if hazardous weather is headed your way is to see how many colors are on your local National Weather Service bureau page.  This afternoon the Monterey page looks like this:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/Storm%20preview%202016-10-13.png)

Normally we hope for a few drops as October drags on, but this year will start out differently.  The title of today's forecast discussion looks like this:

...POTENT EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE
  TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

No kiddin' all-caps to make the point that much more loudly.  The source of the trouble is a vigorous cold front that is tapping into a moisture plume left over from former Typhoon Songda.  The available moisture is close to a record for October.  The storm is already causing trouble in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.  Rains are expected to be heavy enough and the winds gusty enough to potentially cause damage.

I'm almost finished with my storm preparation.  All that's left is to put Rain-X on my collector cone.  An event like this - I don't want to miss a single drop!  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rain_very_happy.gif)

I do hope this storm will make it way east and help the many other westerners who are suffering from . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Title: Just what the doctor ordered! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season0
Post by: elagache on October 14, 2016, 11:44:27 PM
Dear WeatherCat types who can't have droughts end fast enough,

Yippie!!  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rain_happy.gif)

The storm exceeded expectations and did so without doing any damage thus-far at least.  Here is a "blow by blow" thanks to my WC Storm Monitor AppleScripts:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/Storm%202016-10-14.png)

I've regrouped the entries to read properly from left to right.  At Canebas weather station we've got 1.12" (28.5mm) and there is still some light rain coming down. To put that in context our normal rainfall for all of October is 1.37" (34.8mm) and we are expecting another round significant rains on Sunday!

I took a walk around the neighborhood and observed something unexpected.  The dirt wasn't close to having absorbed enough water for it to start running off.  It has been a very long and dry summer.  Hopefully the second round of rain will finally bring enough moisture to start providing significant relief for the plants.

I do hope this rain will help the drought sufferers to the east!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on October 16, 2016, 06:26:38 AM
So happy for your precip. Send it on east; we need some too.
Title: Still coming! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on October 17, 2016, 12:16:58 AM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought sufferers,

It appears to me that the rain is headed your way, and it hasn't stopped raining here!  The frontal passage last night was plenty assertive!

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/Storm%202016-10-15.png)

We have picked up 2.67" (68mm) of rain and some showers are still likely to fall.  So the plants finally have genuine relief from the long hot summer!

Cheers, Edouard 
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on October 18, 2016, 05:33:06 AM
That storm has indeed reached us. We had a snowy day today and appreciate the precipitation it contained.
Title: Another "assertive" storm! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on October 30, 2016, 10:31:03 PM
Dear WeatherCat Western US drought watchers,

We were threatened with another nasty storm that had tapped into tropical moisture from hurricane Seymour.  However, that threat ended up just being a relatively normal period of rainfall.  Today was expected a fast moving front with the potential of moderate to heavy rainfall.  Well, this is what ultimately happened:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/Storm%202016-10-30.png)

Because of the way my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript works it didn't catch the peak rainfall rate of 2.95"/hr (74.9mm/hr.)  The AppleScript did correctly get the final total for the frontal passage: 1.05" (26.7mm.)  For Northern California this is an assertive storm especially this early in the season.

I do hope it spreads its wet goodness to those drought sufferers further east! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rain_happy.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on October 31, 2016, 06:19:31 PM
Nice to see some a storm from some precip in your neighborhood. When it passed over here, it dropped 2 inches of snow. Keep it going.
Title: Finally rain after almost 3 weeks. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on November 19, 2016, 10:57:14 PM
Dear WeatherCat western USofA drought watchers,

After a soggy October, November has been darn right discouraging.  We hadn't got a single storm since the leftovers of the Halloween storm.  We had gone almost 3 weeks without any additional rain.  Fortunately, October left the ground very wet, and at this time of year, the long shadows meant that many places couldn't dry out completely.  Still, I had to start watering areas that were more exposed to the sun and that's no way to conserve water.

Finally we appear to be headed back into a wet period. (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rain_happy.gif) The storms aren't expected to be as extreme, but there are storms lined up keep rain in the forecast through next weekend.  Even with the 0.43" we've picked up from this storm so far, we are over 1.75" behind a normal November.  Still maybe we can still catch up on that rainfall before the end of the month.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Mtn.Marty on November 20, 2016, 01:47:33 PM
We in Western NC could certainly use some rain. Just .02 in in all of November and the smoke from the wildfires is pervasive.
Title: Sorry about your Eastern drought (Re: North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on November 20, 2016, 11:24:10 PM
Dear Mtn.Marty and WeatherCat drought sufferers,

We in Western NC could certainly use some rain. Just .02 in in all of November and the smoke from the wildfires is pervasive.

Sorry to hear that.  I see from the National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center website that you are expected to be in an continuing drought:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)

At the moment, there are regions of drought stretching almost across the whole country.  Definitely a distressing sign of the times.

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: vetenskapsman on November 21, 2016, 05:10:55 PM
Edouard,   just catching up with this thread.  I having lived the majority of my life in CA I follow the drought news closely.  I hope for more rain for you and even more so, a robust snow pack for the Sierras.

I read in your first post about putting Rain-X on the collection cone!  Brilliant!  Now that we have moved to central New Mexico and I've logged only 4.39" so far this year I also feel like I need every micro drop to roll into the collector!  I think I may have even logged a hundreth or two of desert dust rather than water.  Twice this year I've had to go out and unplug the hole at the bottom of the cone that had packed with super fine dust.

-carl
Title: Buy Rain-X just for the station! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on November 21, 2016, 11:38:16 PM
Dear Carl and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Thanks for the kind wishes.  We'll just have to see what La Ni?a actually does to us.

I read in your first post about putting Rain-X on the collection cone!  Brilliant!  Now that we have moved to central New Mexico and I've logged only 4.39" so far this year I also feel like I need every micro drop to roll into the collector!  I think I may have even logged a hundreth or two of desert dust rather than water.  Twice this year I've had to go out and unplug the hole at the bottom of the cone that had packed with super fine dust.

I'm glad that you find Rain-X helpful.  I find myself in an odd predicament of having to buy the original Rain-X strictly for the collector cone.  For the two cars that are kept in the garage I have switched to the PPG product called Aquapel:

http://www.aquapel.com/ (http://www.aquapel.com/)

It is much easier to apply and does last the entire rainy season so long as the car is kept in the garage most of the time.

We have one car that stays outside but I use the Rain-X 2-in-1 glass cleaner and treatment because that windshield gets dirty all the time.  So I have a small bottle of original Rain-X for the collector cone and i know it will lose potency long before I can finish it!

Best of luck in your rainy season!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Pineapple express anyone? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 07, 2016, 11:44:20 PM
Dear WeatherCat Western United States drought watchers,

Northern California is preparing for a striking change in the weather pattern.  To quote from this morning's forecast discussion:

Quote
Conditions will quickly change as the overall pattern switches from cool and dry to quite wet as the overall flow transitions to zonal by tonight. Synoptically a plume of fairly high PW values (traced west of Hawaii) will become entrained in the flow and move to our coast by late in the evening.

This "juicy" situation is likely to give us perhaps as much as 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend.  Additional rain is expected next week and climate prediction centers 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook call for above normal rainfall.   There is a recent pattern of wet Decembers as well.  Of the past 6 years of data at my station, 4 of the 6 have been well above normal.  Alas, a wet December doesn't mean a wet winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt.

Stay tuned! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/tune_in_TV_emoticon.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on December 08, 2016, 12:02:04 AM
Just hope he rain doesn't fill the reservoirs with mud slides! Remember, every silver lining has a dark cloud inside! [rolleyes2] :o [banghead]
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on December 08, 2016, 04:02:13 PM
That same storm is predicted to drop 3-4 feet of snow outside my front window over the next several days. Not sure if I believe the forecast, but the extrapolated forecast from WU adjusted for my location has been quite accurate for snow, less so for rain.
Title: A gentle but juicy start! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 08, 2016, 11:47:40 PM
Dear X-Air, Blick, and WeatherCat west coast drought watchers,

That same storm is predicted to drop 3-4 feet of snow outside my front window over the next several days. Not sure if I believe the forecast, but the extrapolated forecast from WU adjusted for my location has been quite accurate for snow, less so for rain.

Well, I can't tell you what will happen when the storm reaches you, but we have had a prolonged period of very gentle rains.  The peak rate never exceeded 1/4" but we've bagged 0.82" of rain to this moment.  This afternoon's forecast discussion starts with:

Quote
.SYNOPSIS...Look for scattered showers to continue into Friday.    Widespread rain will return starting late Friday as a front approaches our region. Rain will changer over to showers late on Saturday with drier conditions forecast for Sunday. More systems are on tap starting the middle of next week.

Just hope he rain doesn't fill the reservoirs with mud slides! Remember, every silver lining has a dark cloud inside! [rolleyes2] :o [banghead]

 ;) . . . Awe shucks X-Air!  Didn't you know that inside very big problem is a little problem struggling to get out!!  lol(1)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: *Sigh*, been there - mopped that . . . (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 10, 2016, 10:38:23 PM
Dear WeatherCat Western United States victims of feast or famine,

10 days in December and sadly the first nuisance flooding has occurred in the workshop.  There is a root that has tunneled too close to the south wall of the workshop and when we get too much rain, water seeps in along that path.

My value of rainfall for a normal December around here is 3.54 inches.  In only 3 days we have already picked up 2.87" and it is still coming down.  Next week is setting up as an "atmospheric river" phenomena basically guaranteeing will exceed the normal rainfall for the month by the end of the week.

Alas, this is anything but good news really.  Lots of rain along the coast doesn't help the water supply.  These are warm storms that don't dump as much snow which is the major water storage system in most Western states.  Worse still, there is a disturbing pattern.  In 3 of the 4 years where we had well above normal December rainfall, we had well below normal January rainfall.

It is very early in the 2016-17 rainy season, but I'm cured of the idea that early rains mean we'll have an abundant rainy season.  It still might happen, but I'll remain skeptical as I mop up the water . . . . .

*Sigh*, . . . . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/sigh_bubble.gif)
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on December 11, 2016, 11:53:34 PM
We are located in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Our December rain total is now at 4.7 inches. Granted, we didn't get snowfall in the higher elevations, but that will come in early 2017. Our well's static water level has already risen 2 feet and that was just from the recent 3-day rainy spell. Can't complain about that.
Title: Any trouble with flooding? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 12, 2016, 12:21:13 AM
Dear Grand and WeatherCat Western USofA "feast or famine" victims,

We are located in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Our December rain total is now at 4.7 inches. Granted, we didn't get snowfall in the higher elevations, but that will come in early 2017. Our well's static water level has already risen 2 feet and that was just from the recent 3-day rainy spell. Can't complain about that.

Yes getting water is always a good thing - so long as it isn't too much of a good thing.  I see that most of the Sierras are under a flash flood watch for next weeks rain.  I hope you haven't had a problems and that your good luck will continue!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: The Grand Poohbah on December 12, 2016, 07:32:23 PM
Quote
I see that most of the Sierras are under a flash flood watch for next weeks rain.
Indeed, our county did get flash floods, but fortunately there was no property damage. There's another "atmospheric river" headed our way starting tomorrow. Batten down the hatches and put on the rain gear! We're ready.
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on December 12, 2016, 11:00:11 PM
These storms moved east and we got 14 inches of snow out of them this past weekend here along the Wasatch Mountains in northern Utah. Keep shoveling them our way so I can shovel more snow.
Title: As ready as I can be! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 13, 2016, 01:17:57 AM
Dear Grand, Blick, and WeatherCat experts at Batten down hatches

There's another "atmospheric river" headed our way starting tomorrow. Batten down the hatches and put on the rain gear! We're ready.

I scrambled around the yard this afternoon.  We are about as ready as we can get!

Bring on the rain!  (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/rain_happy.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Da' Monster storm has arrived! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 15, 2016, 11:53:45 PM
Dear WeatherCat Western United States victims of "feast or famine,"

A heavy rain event that has been forecast for several days has finally reached the San Francisco East Bay.  The heavy rains started about 2 hours ago and are expected to last at least twice as long as that.  We may pick up somewhere between 1 and 2 inches of rain (25-50 mm).  Of course with this amount of rain in a short time damage is likely.  About 1/2 hour ago I went out to find a branch from our Acacia tree had cracked and was now reaching the ground.  We just had the trees trimmed and I had asked the Arborist to check that branch in particular because it had cracked in the past.  Obviously, the didn't lighten it enough, because that is where the branch cracked again.

It is a good thing that the rains are supposed to stop by tomorrow, I appears I have a lot of wood removal to do . . . .

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on December 16, 2016, 06:41:41 PM
Sorry for your tree. Snowing here. 7 inches so far today with high water content. Good stuff.
Title: Da' MAIN event!! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 17, 2016, 12:04:34 AM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western USofA drought watchers,

The storm was still pounding away as I wrote my last posting.  Here is the "blow by blow" as reported by my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/Storm%202016-12-15.png)

For coastal Northern California, receiving 1.78" (45.2mm) in a continuous period lasting almost 9 hours is in the top 10% of storms.   Rainfall rates of 1.4"/hr (35.6mm/hr) is also very heavy.  In addition to the tree, the nuisance flooding in the workshop started again.  If the rains return soon, I'll have to cover an area in front of the workshop with a tarp to prevent any additional moisture reaching that part of the foundation.

Sorry for your tree.

Here is the fallen branch:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-qkR5LVQ/0/XL/Fallen%20Acacia%20branch%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-qkR5LVQ/A)

Here is a close-up of the crack in the branch that caused the branch to fall:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-vT4zZmH/0/XL/Crack%20in%20branch%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-vT4zZmH/A)

The arborist thought the crack had healed up, but obviously it wasn't strong enough to bare the weight so it opened up again.  So it falls on me to remove this branch.  I'm about 50% of the way on that chore.

Snowing here. 7 inches so far today with high water content. Good stuff.

I'm glad you got some helpful snow.  Unfortunately for us it ended up raining on almost all of the Sierras.  I haven't read up on the situation, but I suspect we actually lost snow because of this storm.  I suppose you can't win them all.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on December 17, 2016, 12:48:00 AM
We set three all-time records today for my weather station:
One of the freeways in a nearby canyon is closed, we have an avalanche warning and the ski resorts (two within 45 minutes, two more within an hour, six more within 90 minutes and another 4 within 4 hours) are jumping moguls for joy.

A pretty good day for weather enthusiasts in Utah.
Title: Congratulations! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 17, 2016, 10:43:28 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat fans of "exciting" weather,

We set three all-time records today for my weather station:
  • Lowest recorded pressure: 29.13 inHg
  • Highest recorded wind speed: 51.0 MPH
  • Snowiest day: 12 inches, containing 1.14 inches of precipitation
One of the freeways in a nearby canyon is closed, we have an avalanche warning and the ski resorts (two within 45 minutes, two more within an hour, six more within 90 minutes and another 4 within 4 hours) are jumping moguls for joy.

A pretty good day for weather enthusiasts in Utah.

Glad the weather has been good for you and you escaped all the potential bad.  Interesting that the low pressure intensified after passing over us.  The lowest pressure I observed was only 29.58".

Today, I finished cutting back that damaged branch.  Such things are so much more challenging and potentially dangerous when you have to do this all by yourself.

Oh well, . . . Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on December 18, 2016, 02:43:37 PM
Quote
I finished cutting back that damaged branch.  Such things are so much more challenging and potentially dangerous when you have to do this all by yourself.
Surely you could have backed up your 'wagon' under the branch and stood on it's top to wield the chainsaw! Of course, you could also tie a chain around the bumper to drag the limb to the street... I'm jis' sayin' the wagon has plenty of power... ;D

Hillbilly Car Roof Climbing Tip: Roll down one of the winders (ifin hit still has glass in it), open thet door. First step is on thet door frame, second on the bottom edge of the open winder, last one is on to the roof. Sumetimes its helpful to prop thet door open with a fence post, the dang things kin close on you jist whens you need it open!! Glad ta help! [tup]
Title: Another "brisk" storm! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on December 23, 2016, 11:37:02 PM
Dear WeatherCat Western United States drought watchers,

We had another "brisk" storm blow through today.  It isn't finished, but we already have 0.76" of rain (19.3 mm).  That brings our December total to 5.78" (149 mm) which is 63% above a normal December.  The week is supposed to start out dry but who knows.  The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook for precipitation is for above normal rainfall.  So we might get one more storm before the start of the new year.

Cheers, Edouard
Title: One-Two punch? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 04, 2017, 11:38:03 PM
Dear WeatherCat sufferers of precipitation feast or famine,

I was very worried that January would usher in another dry period. Of the 7 years of January data I have at my station, 4 were well below normal.  This year still could easily end up below normal, but that's not how things are starting.  As in December, we are in an "atmospheric river" pattern.  A first storm is winding down after dumping 1.74" of rain (44.2mm).  That's over 1/3 of January's normal rainfall in just 2 days!  A second storm is expected to dump even more rain than the first over the weekend and the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above normal rainfall 14 days out!

The drought was so severe that all the rain we received in December basically was swallowed up by the thirsty ground.  However, now the ground is finally saturated.  So these rains will lead to accelerated runoff.  Flooding seems unavoidable and landslides may also be in the cards.

So Northern California looks to be in the crosshairs of more than it can easily handle.  It may not be long before we make national headlines.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Another day in . . . . paradise!?!??? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 06, 2017, 12:44:38 AM
Dear WeatherCat admires of the mild Northern California Weather, . . . .

This is the National Weather Service Monterey office home page of this afternoon:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/NWS%20Monterey%20warnings%202017-01-05.png)

No kidding.  The current warnings are for widespread frost - tonight.  We have one more day to prepare for the storm (and I dearly need it!)  Then the rains start Friday night and the 7 day forecast has rain or showers all the way to the end of the week.  This appears to be uncertainty in the models, but the latest runs have a storm coming in Tuesday to Wednesday and yet a 3rd storm for the end of the week.  Given the forecast rainfall total, we might reach the total rainfall for a normal January in before the end of next week!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/sigh_bubble.gif)

P.S. Yes that is the National Weather Service "YELLING."  Now that forecasts aren't always capitals, if you see them - it means trouble! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek-sign.gif)
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on January 06, 2017, 01:32:13 AM
We have received 37 inches of snow in the past four days. This is like the old days.
Title: The perfect(ly bad) storm (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 09, 2017, 12:17:43 AM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

Here is today's National Weather Service warnings from the Monterey (San Francisco) office:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/NWS%20Monterey%20warnings%202017-01-08.png)

Note the huge swath of light green "Flood Warning."  Instead of snowing in the Sierras, it is literally raining hard in the very place we need snow to accumulate.  What little snow was up there certainly has been diminished.

Worse still, it is raining so hard that we are getting flooding in places like Sacramento.  As a result, the dams which store our water are forced to release in order to cope with the water that is still coming.

We have picked up over 2" of rain from this storm and it is still coming.  On paper, I have almost 80% of the normal rainfall for January.  But all that water is racing back to the Pacific.  The only good thing about it is that we don't have to water.  Between the diminished snow pack and the reservoir releases we are actually going to end up with less water as a result of this storm!

Colder storms are expected later this week.  We might recover some of that snow.  But thus far, this storm has been very good at only one thing - doing harm!

So far the house hasn't suffered any significant damage, but I had to run around to make several rain-related fixes.

Even in drought-parched California, there is such a thing as too much rain!

Oh well, . . . . .Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/sigh_bubble.gif)
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on January 09, 2017, 02:56:59 PM
Sorry to hear of this overage from the skies where you are. By the time these storms reach us, on the other side of the Sierras, they are behaving normally - rain in the valleys, snow in the mountains, and lots of much needed water.
Title: Re: The perfect(ly bad) storm (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: HantaYo on January 10, 2017, 04:22:32 AM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

Here is today's National Weather Service warnings from the Monterey (San Francisco) office:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/NWS%20Monterey%20warnings%202017-01-08.png)

Note the huge swath of light green "Flood Warning."  Instead of snowing in the Sierras, it is literally raining hard in the very place we need snow to accumulate.  What little snow was up there certainly has been diminished.

Worse still, it is raining so hard that we are getting flooding in places like Sacramento.  As a result, the dams which store our water are forced to release in order to cope with the water that is still coming.

We have picked up over 2" of rain from this storm and it is still coming.  On paper, I have almost 80% of the normal rainfall for January.  But all that water is racing back to the Pacific.  The only good thing about it is that we don't have to water.  Between the diminished snow pack and the reservoir releases we are actually going to end up with less water as a result of this storm!

Colder storms are expected later this week.  We might recover some of that snow.  But thus far, this storm has been very good at only one thing - doing harm!

So far the house hasn't suffered any significant damage, but I had to run around to make several rain-related fixes.

Even in drought-parched California, there is such a thing as too much rain!

Oh well, . . . . .Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/sigh_bubble.gif)

Raining here in Mountains of Colorado as well.  I am at 8,400' and have Never seen it rain like this in the winter time.
Title: And it keeps coming (Re: The perfect(ly bad) storm)
Post by: elagache on January 11, 2017, 12:22:30 AM
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat victims of way too much of a "good thing."

Raining here in Mountains of Colorado as well.  I am at 8,400' and have Never seen it rain like this in the winter time.

Well, snow is rarely an issue in Orinda, but the rain just won't quit.  Here is a photo of my station with the storm total:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Misc-weather-images/i-Sw2GF2N/0/XL/Total%20rainfall%20storms%20of%20Jan%207%2C%202017-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Misc-weather-images/i-Sw2GF2N/A)

According to the Idecide website (http://www.idcide.com/weather/ca/orinda.htm), Orinda should get only 5.13" of rain for the entire month of January in a normal season.  I now have more than that in just two back-to-back storms!  I'm within 0.40" of rain to set a new record rainfall for the month of January.

Alas, too much water has to go somewhere.  I'm getting flooding on the semi-developed basement I use as a workshop.  At the moment I'm having to vacuum up the water every 1/2 hour or so.  Definitely anything but fun.

All this and this may still make our water supply actually worse.  I can't win for losing . . . . . . .(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)

Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: HantaYo on January 11, 2017, 04:06:29 AM
Edouard,

A lot of rain in a few days [cloudsun]  Alas, for the West I fear the "New" normal weather will either be too much or not enough.  What was shaping up to be a dry winter has completely reversed.  Bracing for storm 3 or 4 (have lost count) with another potential storm Friday-Saturday which will be a big one depending upon were the closed low goes.

I am up to 2.69" of precipitation with 31.2" of snow.  .77" of that was rain.  Snow is like concrete with the rain.
Title: Indeed very ominous . . . (Re: The perfect(ly bad) storm)
Post by: elagache on January 11, 2017, 11:42:38 PM
Dear HantaYo and WeatherCat climate observers,

A lot of rain in a few days [cloudsun]  Alas, for the West I fear the "New" normal weather will either be too much or not enough. 

Sadly I fear that you are correct and my worries is that this proof that climate change is already out of control.  Last year there was finally a study based on the movements of the cloud bands that I feel is convincing that greenhouse gas based climate change has already started.  It is horribly disappointing that good research like that is so hard to come by.

I haven't had a chance to check, but my recollection is that the last La Nina event also produced heavy precipitation like we are seeing right now.  This can be explained by a more energetic atmosphere that brings storms even over the colder water.  "Normal years" are becoming increasingly dry.  The cause is an usually strong blocking ridge of high pressure during the wintertime.  This too is consistent with a more energetic atmosphere.  The changes in climate are perfectly reasonable with a more energetic (warmer) atmosphere.

If true than the west is at the brink of a water supply crisis the likes of which nobody even imagined.  Our current water storage strategy is out of sync with the way water is now delivered to the region.  As a result, there is plenty of water to be stored but we don't have the technology to catch it.   While the ways we have traditionally counted for our water supply seem poised to really fail us.

Nobody predicted this sort of scenario.  That is exactly what we needed to the climate scientists to do for us.  Their unwillingness to admit honestly what they could and could not tell us about the changing climate might well bring about the very disasters they insisted they were trying to help us prevent.

Oh well,. . . . . Edouard (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/pout.gif)
Title: First of 3 storms . . . (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 18, 2017, 10:54:19 PM
Dear WeatherCat West Coast victims of feast or famine,

After a break of a few days, we are experiencing the first of three storms.  A second storm is expected on Friday and the final storm on Sunday.  All have some sort of an atmospheric river tap which means abundant rainfall.  However the first two are expected to move through more quickly and don't have as rich a source of moisture.  Nonetheless, all three are energetic storms with strong winds and are expected put us through a period of heavy rains.  As the three storms go through, the temperatures are expected to fall.  That should make for a lot of snow and reduce the risk of flooding on the rivers fed by the Sierra foothills.

Alas, the ground is saturated and the trees have been already stressed from the drought and earlier storms.  We shall see, but there is likely to be more damage around the San Francisco Bay Area.

After these 3 storms, current Climate Prediction Center forecasts are for a complete turnaround in the situation with below normal precipitation perhaps as long as into February 10th.

Sadly for the West, extremes seem to be norm these days . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Oh well, . . .  Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: HantaYo on January 19, 2017, 04:45:32 AM
Dear WeatherCat West Coast victims of feast or famine,

After a break of a few days, we are experiencing the first of three storms.  A second storm is expected on Friday and the final storm on Sunday.  All have some sort of an atmospheric river tap which means abundant rainfall.  However the first two are expected to move through more quickly and don't have as rich a source of moisture.  Nonetheless, all three are energetic storms with strong winds and are expected put us through a period of heavy rains.  As the three storms go through, the temperatures are expected to fall.  That should make for a lot of snow and reduce the risk of flooding on the rivers fed by the Sierra foothills.

Alas, the ground is saturated and the trees have been already stressed from the drought and earlier storms.  We shall see, but there is likely to be more damage around the San Francisco Bay Area.

After these 3 storms, current Climate Prediction Center forecasts are for a complete turnaround in the situation with below normal precipitation perhaps as long as into February 10th.

Sadly for the West, extremes seem to be norm these days . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/confused_do_no.gif)

Oh well, . . .  Edouard

3 Storms in sight of Colorado as well, must be your 3 storms and the river of water.  As you, the third storm is forecast to be the most robust.  Looks like the first might be more southern with winter storm watch for the southwest Colorado Mtns starting tomorrow.   Hopefully the snow line in California remains high.  Lucky here in Colorado so far with a snow line around my elevation, 8,400' for several storms with just rain one day.  It was so sunny and nice on Tuesday I had to force myself to go to work.
Title: A tree surcumbs to the wet (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 21, 2017, 12:08:14 AM
Dear WeatherCat home caregivers in extreme weather,

Storm #2 of 3 came through early this morning.  It dumped an impressive amount of rain on us by Northern California standards.  Here is the "blow-by-blow" as recorded by my WC Storm Monitor AppleScript:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/Storm%202017-01-20.png)

We are now over double the normal rainfall for January.  Not surprisingly trees are starting to fall over.  There was one next to the local middle school a while back.  Last week a very large tree fell into a creek next to the local grade school.  Today they sent a crew to remove it.  It was serious business as the crane they used to lift sections of the tree out makes clear:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-K9vx2zB/0/XL/Crane%20used%20to%20remove%20tree-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-K9vx2zB/A)

Here is the rig that was used to chip the tree parts into small pieces:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-TP3HMNH/0/XL/Tree%20chipping%20machine%20and%20truck%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-TP3HMNH/A)

Finally, here is the chipper in action.  Note the mechanical claw needed to lift the heavy sections of tree trunk:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-Vbt8bPp/0/XL/Tree%20trunk%20being%20shredded-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-Vbt8bPp/A)

This is industrial sized tree removal.  However, this is relatively small problem compared to the sinkhole that opened on a road in the Northern part of Orinda:

http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/01/18/orinda-declares-local-state-of-emergency-following-sinkhole/ (http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/01/18/orinda-declares-local-state-of-emergency-following-sinkhole/)

This is feeder road to many neighborhoods and carries a lot of traffic, so is already a serious inconvenience for many citizens of Orinda.  However, we live in the South, so we aren't effected.

Still, there is one more storm expected and it is expected to be the strongest and wettest.

All I can try do to is take the blows as the come!

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Last storm will be duesy (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 21, 2017, 10:31:02 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

We have probably something like 6 hours before the final storm of the triplet makes landfall.  As you can see on this 8 km satellite photo is had a very extensive moisture tap:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Weather%20related%20images/Storm%20of%202017-01-21%208km.jpg)

This means, unlike the previous two storms that moved through quickly, we are in for a protected period of heavy rains.  Here are the warnings from the National Weather Service, Monterey office:

(http://www.canebas.org/misc/Capto_images/NWS%20Monterey%20warnings%202017-01-21.png)

I don't recall ever seeing any stronger than a gale warning out to sea before - so this storm has plenty of strong winds as well.  Looks like Northern California is in for a real duesy of a storm.  I've battened down the hatches as best as I could, but I'm expecting more flooding with this sort of a rain event.

All I can do is grin and bare it!

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on January 22, 2017, 08:07:50 AM
These storms produce snow further east; we had 5 inches today with more to come. The snow is heavy and wet and we'll take all we can get for now.
Title: Sierras getting the same. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on January 22, 2017, 11:27:14 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat Western US drought watchers,

These storms produce snow further east; we had 5 inches today with more to come. The snow is heavy and wet and we'll take all we can get for now.

I just checked and there is a lot of snow falling on the Sierras so hopefully we are also banking some water for the Summer.  This last storm hasn't been as mean as advertised but it has given us almost 1" of rain and there is more still coming.  I just cleared 12" of rain for January.  That's more than 50% more than the previous record January of 7.79" set just last year.

According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center drought monitor:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png)

Northern California is officially out of drought (at least until the end of April.)

This is really amazing for a La Ni?a year.

Go figure . . . . .

Edouard
Title: Prepping for the next round of wet. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 01, 2017, 10:54:40 PM
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The forecast has once more lead to concerns of excessive rainfall. 

This afternoon's forecast discussion starts with this synopsis:

Quote
SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather conditions return to the region late tonight into Thursday as an upper level system approaches from the west. Widespread rainfall will develop, especially along the coastal ranges, along with an increase in southerly winds. Showers will then continue through Friday before potentially a brief break in precipitation during the day Saturday. Another round of widespread rainfall is possible from late Sunday into Monday as another system approaches the region.

The area is already hurting from all the previous storm damage.  This morning I noticed another tree had fallen into the same creek where the huge tree was removed by crane as documented in this posting:

http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2301.msg23230#msg23230 (http://athena.trixology.com/index.php?topic=2301.msg23230#msg23230)

This is is much smaller but still did some damage:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-P3z2Mvx/0/XL/Fallen%20tree%20in%20creek%20behind%20Del%20Ray%20-%20trunk-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-P3z2Mvx/A)

Here is a view of the end of the trunk where it fractured:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-STgT3Nd/0/XL/Fallen%20tree%20in%20creek%20behind%20Del%20Ray%20-%20stump-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-STgT3Nd/A)

Finally here are some more fallen branches along the side of a hill that serves as a power company right-of way:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-95qJS5p/0/XL/Fallen%20branches%20next%20to%20La%20Cresta%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-95qJS5p/A)

I did some storm preparation and I have some more to do.  It does appear like "more of the same" is to be expected at least through the weekend.

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Massive eucalyptus tree falls next to restaurant! (Re: 16-17 CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 03, 2017, 11:21:36 PM
Dear WeatherCat storm monitors,

Some of the storm damage in Northern California has been more "serious."  Take for example this eucalyptus tree falling next to a restaurant:

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/01/23/photos-massive-tree-falls-and-crushes-cars-in-bay-area-city/ (http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/01/23/photos-massive-tree-falls-and-crushes-cars-in-bay-area-city/)

It fell two weeks ago on a Sunday evening when the restaurant was starting to receive guests.  Amazingly, nobody was hurt.  However, a few people aren't going to have any trouble having their insurance declaring their cars to be total wrecks:

(http://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/cct-treefall-0124-04.jpg?w=810)

(http://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/cct-treefall-0124-12.jpg?w=810)

It was really lucky that neither the restaurant nor nearby appartments were hit.

Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: jace on February 05, 2017, 04:18:13 PM
Edouard  [WCSmall]

I was interested to read that your are having to pump your basement out due to the heavy rain.  [thunder]

Have you ever considered modifying the basement as a rain storage cistern as is normal in Bermuda ? At least it could be used for washing the car, and watering the garden. 

JC
Title: A problem of priorities . . . (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 05, 2017, 10:19:30 PM
Dear JC and WeatherCat space efficient packrats . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/packrat-emoticon.png)

I was interested to read that your are having to pump your basement out due to the heavy rain.  [thunder]

Have you ever considered modifying the basement as a rain storage cistern as is normal in Bermuda ? At least it could be used for washing the car, and watering the garden.

 [wink] . . . . . Well that doesn't sound like a bad idea but for one thing . . . . where would I keep all the spare parts for my trusty wagon and all the other knick-knacks that my Dad had collected for over 50 years?!?!?? . . . . . .(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/D'oh.gif)

Sadly the real problem is a rather poor foundation design that was partially concrete footing and partially concrete slab.  Luckily this house rests mostly on sandstone, otherwise it would have probably broken in two in the space between the slabs and the concrete footing! (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/eek2.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

P.S. This house will be 70 years old this year, so I suppose I shouldn't complain!
Title: Re: A problem of priorities . . . (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: Blicj11 on February 06, 2017, 11:21:52 PM
P.S. This house will be 70 years old this year, so I suppose I shouldn't complain!

I didn't realise the house was as old as you, mate.
Title: That sir is an exaggeration! . . . (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 06, 2017, 11:45:59 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat numerologists, . . . .

P.S. This house will be 70 years old this year, so I suppose I shouldn't complain!

I didn't realise the house was as old as you, mate.

 ;) . . That sir is an unmitigated exaggeration! . . . . . Nonetheless, I'm prepared to state that I am older than my trusty wagon, but nonetheless considerably younger than the house!  Although I also will the first to admits I certainly wish I could look as good as my trusty wagon who doesn't look a day over 20,000 miles!  [biggrin]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Filled up! Can I skip to March? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 09, 2017, 11:20:36 PM
Dear WeatherCat "I can't believe it is still raining/snowing" types,

At about mid-afternoon, my Davis console looked like this:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Misc-weather-images/i-SXQPRFQ/0/XL/Over%205%22%20of%20rain%20from%20early%20storms%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Weather/Misc-weather-images/i-SXQPRFQ/A)

So what is the significance?  The number of importance is the over 5" of rainfall.  Why you ask?  The normal seasonal rainfall for the entire month of February is . . . . 4.75" (http://www.idcide.com/weather/ca/orinda.htm)!!  Now the observant reader will also note the date.  We haven't even gotten through 1/3 of the month!  Just to add to what is already overboard, this isn't the only rainfall in February - at this moment the monthly total stands at: 6.28".

 [wink] . . . . So can I skip the rest of February and fast-forward directly to March? . . . .  [biggrin]

Because if I can't, then February is looking at least as wet as January.  At the moment, the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and experimental week 3-4 outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are show above normal precipitation for Northern California.  Definitely continuing to be a wild-wet-ride at the moment!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 10, 2017, 03:22:11 AM
This same storm os forecast to drop 12 inches of snow at my house tomorrow. Keep 'em coming; you are doing great this winter.
Title: Growing webbed feet! (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 10, 2017, 10:41:08 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat "beware of what you ask for - you might get it" types,

This same storm os forecast to drop 12 inches of snow at my house tomorrow. Keep 'em coming; you are doing great this winter.

 [wink] . . . Well, I'll have you know I thought I spotted a UFO late this morning.  Then I realized it was the sun!   [sun2]  It had been so long that I didn't recognize it! . . .  lol(1)

We are supposed to get a break from the rain until around next Thursday.  We sure need it!  There is a new mudslide in North of Orinda and the situation at Oroville dam is definitely worrisome.

Oh well,
. . . . . Edouard
Title: Home badly damaged by mudslide. (Re: 2016-17 North CA)
Post by: elagache on February 11, 2017, 10:51:35 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

Here is a news report on the slide in the Northern area of Orinda that happened on Thursday:

http://abc7news.com/weather/orinda-home-severely-damaged-by-mudslide/1746348/ (http://abc7news.com/weather/orinda-home-severely-damaged-by-mudslide/1746348/)

These folks lost their place to live for now and trying to put a house back on that property might be a difficult and expensive proposition.

Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 11, 2017, 11:31:53 PM
Wow! Now that's a mud slide. We had one here too, but it only closed the road for 12 hours with 4 feet of mud that slid down from high up on the mountain. It rained all day yesterday and then snowed 6 inches after midnight.
Title: The West really saturated. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 12, 2017, 11:27:42 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat soggy West coast types,

Wow! Now that's a mud slide. We had one here too, but it only closed the road for 12 hours with 4 feet of mud that slid down from high up on the mountain.

Sorry that you had your own incident with a mud slide.  At least nobody was hurt in your case as well and road is back open.  The hills around the San Francisco Bay Area are known to be vulnerable to slides, and sadly, many slide-prone locations make for a attractive real estate.  So it stands to reason more houses will be lost this year.

It rained all day yesterday and then snowed 6 inches after midnight.

These storms are tapping into warm sub-tropical or in some cases true tropical taps.  So by normal winter standards these storms are warm as well as well.  The higher altitude rains are definitely making things worse along the waterways fed by the Sierras.  Instead of that moisture staying put as snow, it rolls down rapidly and loads the flood control dams that shouldn't be under stress so early in the season.  At least the emergency spillway worked properly on the Oroville dam:

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article132290569.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article132290569.html)

However, we are expecting another round of heavy rains for the second have of this upcoming week.  So the stress on our region is continuing and I assume you'll be seeing the same a few days later.

Oh well, . . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on February 13, 2017, 03:08:35 PM
Edouard, do I understad correctly that this is the first time in it's 48 years, that Lake Oroville is full?
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on February 13, 2017, 10:22:29 PM
Quote
"So the lake rose 50 feet in just a few days," Dan Brekke of member station KQED tells Morning Edition, "and got up to this emergency spillway which had never been used since the dam went into service in 1968. And on Saturday morning, it began pouring over there."
Doesn't sound like the Oroville Dam is completely safe and secure just yet. I feel for the several thousand folks downstream, most probably living in the town of Oroville. From what I can see at other sites (the video at the Sac Bee won't run on my OS), this is what/where the high water exited the reservoir: (Edit: Actually, image #2 and #12 at the SacBee site show a view from the NW end of emergency spillway, looking S. It shows the overflow seeking its own path down the hill through the trees. Doesn't look like it ever got back into the normal spillway path before reaching the Feather River)(http://i1327.photobucket.com/albums/u666/xAirbusDriver/Oroville%20Dam%20-%20Google%20Maps%202017-02-13%2016-11-28_zpsmqiacqi9.jpg)
Title: Definitely a bad situation (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 13, 2017, 11:31:30 PM
Dear Blick, X-Air, and WeatherCat extreme weather watchers,

Edouard, do I understad correctly that this is the first time in it's 48 years, that Lake Oroville is full?

Well, it is back down once more but yes, this was the first time the emergency spillway had ever been used.  Sadly, it started to fail as soon as the water starting going over.

Doesn't sound like the Oroville Dam is completely safe and secure just yet. I feel for the several thousand folks downstream, most probably living in the town of Oroville.

The state took no chances, 188,000 people were ordered to evacuate the area:

http://www.abc10.com/news/local/live-update-damaged-oroville-dam-spillway/407882066 (http://www.abc10.com/news/local/live-update-damaged-oroville-dam-spillway/407882066)

The Los Angeles times has a good explanation of what the problem is with the emergency spillway:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-dam-how-20170213-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-dam-how-20170213-story.html)

It is too early to tell, but it does appear that this isn't a crisis caused by purely by mother nature, but that human beings could have prevented it and didn't.  We will have to wait and see . . . . .

Oh well,
. . . . Edouard
Title: Acacia loses an even larger branch. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on February 22, 2017, 11:20:24 PM
Dear WeatherCat arborists, . . . .

Our Acacia tree was in full bloom when the last atmospheric river hit us and alas the weight of all those wet blooms was too much for one of the main branches:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-5SsLsV4/0/XL/Broken%20Acacia%20branch%20-%20overall%20view-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-5SsLsV4/A)

It is a nasty break that is over 1 foot.  You can spot it at the extreme right of the photo above.  Here is the side view:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-xCRsDFF/0/XL/Broken%20Acacia%20branch%20-%20break%20side%20view-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-xCRsDFF/A)

There is a 12 inch ruler on the top to give you a scale.  Here is a view of the opening made by the break:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-SK3WqHB/0/XL/Broken%20Acacia%20branch%20-%20break%20opening-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-SK3WqHB/A)

I called our arborist to come and look over the tree now that it has lost two major south-facing branches.  The tree many need to be pruned back to restore its balance.  In the meantime, I've got an awful lot of wood to clear - lucky me . . . . .  [banghead]

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: Re: Acacia loses an even larger branch. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: Blicj11 on February 23, 2017, 08:02:24 AM
In the meantime, I've got an awful lot of wood to clear - lucky me . . . . .  [banghead]

Sorry about the tree, but you needed to take a break from working on the Buick anyway.
Title: Acacia branch finally trimmed back. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on March 03, 2017, 11:58:25 PM
Dear WeatherCat handymen about the house,

Yesterday, I managed to finish trimming all the small branches trimmed away from the broken branch on our Acacia tree.  I could do this any earlier because I had no place to put the material.  I filled up 2-1/2 64 gallon green cans thanks to borrowing a neighbor's can.  I had to wait for garage day to get the can empty once more.  Today it was time to remove the large trunk of the branch.  Here is a photo of that branch stripped of everything else:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-gmGnjRd/0/XL/Remaining%20wood%20of%20broken%20branch%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-gmGnjRd/A)

I'm a bit leery of chainsaws so I cut all by hand.  It was a bit of a struggle but clean living prevailed!  :)  Here is what the branch looked after my final cut:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-Ns4nL8h/0/XL/Cut%20stump%20of%20branch%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-Ns4nL8h/A)

Alas the break between the two branches has frozen.  I was hoping to close the gap, but I couldn't budge it.  I hope the other branch at this "Y" will survive.  Here is the wheelbarrow loaded with the wood from the branch:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-TpmprDf/0/XL/Wheelbarrow%20full%20of%20wood%20-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-TpmprDf/A)

Definitely plenty of wood.  Fortunately, I had a good use for it in the yard.

Just another day in the "paradise"  [rolleyes2] that is California . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard

P.S. Our arborist will come and seriously thin the tree, but they can't come until mid-April.
Title: Ready for another "AR"? (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on March 22, 2017, 09:20:30 PM
Dear WeatherCat drought extreme weather watchers,

It has been darn right boring weather-wise here in Northern California.  We had almost 2 weeks of dry weather.  Fortunately, this week "business is picking up."  We had a first series of storms that brought us 1.33" of rain (33.8mm.)  However, the main event is expected to arrive Friday.  It is once more expected to have a subtropical tap providing an Atmospheric River ("AR") that should dump a lot of rain over Northern California.  There is another website devoted to Atmospheric Rivers Created jointly by Plymouth State University and Scripps Institute of Oceanography:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/~j_cordeira/ARPortal/Current/products.html (http://vortex.plymouth.edu/~j_cordeira/ARPortal/Current/products.html)

Here is the expected Atmospheric River plume expected for Friday:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/misc/Atmospheric%20River%202017-03-24.png)

It does appear that Northern California and presumably parts East will be getting still more precipitation!  This storm should be sufficient to bring us over our normal rainfall for March. If so that would be the 4th month in a row of above normal rainfall. 

We'll take it!  [cheer]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: April's first "AR" event (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on April 06, 2017, 11:07:26 PM
Dear WeatherCat West coast drought extreme weather watchers,

Can you believe it?  It has taken a whole 7 days for the first Atmospheric River event to occur in April.  However tardy, it appears to make up for it with ferocity.  Here is the forecasted Integrated Vapor Transport for tomorrow:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/misc/Atmospheric%20river%202017-04-07.png)

It does appear that the San Francisco Bay Area is going to get seriously wet!

Fortunately, we had almost a full two weeks without rain.  Between that and the increased solar energy, the soils have substantially dried out.  Still it looks like we'll get enough rain that some hydrological problems seem unavoidable.

All the hatches have been battened down!

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: xairbusdriver on April 06, 2017, 11:59:33 PM
Looks like a bad "Souwester"! Everything is backwards on the Left coast!
Title: Lost another branch (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on April 08, 2017, 12:16:20 AM
Dear X-Air and WeatherCat home maintenance types,

Looks like a bad "Souwester"!

Afraid so!  We lost a good sized branch on our Crepe Myrtle:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-qR6g7DK/0/XL/Broken%20branch%20of%20Crepe%20Myrtle-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-qR6g7DK/A)

It is a nasty breach of the trunk:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-pQBNqhV/0/X2/Break%20Crepe%20Myrtle%20trunk-X2.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-pQBNqhV/A)

I hope the tree will make it though.

Everything is backwards on the Left coast!

[wink] At the risk of being utterly politically incorrect.  I fear on the West coast, being to the left has made everything utterly backwards!  [biggrin]   As one example, in today's news it was reported that it will take 2 years (http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article143200489.html) to make permanent repairs to the Oroville Dam.  Another one of those cases where there is never enough time to do it right, but always enough time to do it over?  [rolleyes2]

Just another day in paradise . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: First storm of the 2016-17 North CA rainy season
Post by: Blicj11 on April 08, 2017, 12:42:58 AM
Edouard:

I love your grow boxes and the footpath (sidewalk) in the photo! Nicely done, sir.
Title: April already over normal. (Re: 2016-17 North CA rainy season)
Post by: elagache on April 08, 2017, 10:57:18 PM
Dear Blick and WeatherCat home maintainers,

I love your grow boxes and the footpath (sidewalk) in the photo! Nicely done, sir.

Well it does look very nice, but it wasn't my doing.  My Dad had this done when he had the driveway redone at our house.  Since my Dad was a mechanical engineer designing electrical generating stations, he understood the properties of concrete.  He had a horrible time getting the contractor to do what he wanted, but he wasn't going to accept anything less.

In other news I have new storm related damage photos similar to last year:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-kMwbVbz/0/XL/Grass%20bent%20and%20broken%20by%20the%20wind-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-kMwbVbz/A)

The grasses had grown quite tall with the sunshine in-between storms and the winds were strong enough to break the stalks.  Here is another example:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-QsP4HLh/0/XL/Grass%20bent%20and%20broken%20by%20the%20wind-XL.jpg) (https://canebas.smugmug.com/Nature/Wild-Flowers/Scenes-of-Winter-2017/i-QsP4HLh/A)

We picked up 2.15" of rain from this storm when normal rainfall for April is only 1.63"!  Another storm seems likely for midweek and the models are suggesting a third storm after that for the following week.  So this wet winter is definitely continuing!

Cheers, Edouard