Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on July 10, 2016, 11:01:10 PM

Title: Busy start to the Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.
Post by: elagache on July 10, 2016, 11:01:10 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather monitors,

Okay I confess . . . .  :-[  There was an update to EarthDesk (http://www.xericdesign.com/earthdesk.php) recently and I splurged and bought the high resolution image subscription.   With EarthDesk it is easy to keep an eye on all the hurricane activity all over the globe.  It has been a slow start everywhere but the northern eastern Pacific (to the east of Baja California.)  There have been already 3 named storms and a 4th is lurking.  You can find more information on the National Hurricane center website for this region:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac)

This does not appear to be expected.  According to the NOAA 2016 Hurricane outlook (http://www.noaa.gov/near-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-most-likely-year) the forecast for the northern eastern Pacific was (and I quote:)

Quote
NOAA also issued its outlook for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins.  . . . . .  The eastern Pacific hurricane outlook calls for a 40 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season. That outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 13-20 named storms, of which 6-11 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes.

All this is a bit intriguing because this sort of hurricane activity would be consistent with a continuing El Ni?o event while the forecast is that the shift into La Ni?a is already underway:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html)

So as seems to be so true when it comes to weather, . . . . . da' plot thickens . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/stirthepot.gif)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]
Title: Re: Busy start to the Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.
Post by: HantaYo on July 13, 2016, 06:19:14 AM
I'm still waiting for the wet May that was promised as well as the wet June that was not delivered.  I am figuring the NWS owes me about 6" of water content in whatever form of precipitation they wish to delivered it in.  Heck,, I'll even take ice.  July is forecast to be equal chance of anything but it already appears the Monsoon was taking a siesta when NWS issued the monthly forecast.  I've heard it rumored Trump has declared Monsoon an alien and he will be arrested when he tries to cross the border and sent to the liquidation chambers at guantanamo.  Maybe he is just playing it safe this year and staying out of 2016 American Politics.   The moral of this story is do not type anything in a user forum when you are under the influence of sleep deprivation and sleeping pills that are not working [goofy]
Title: Re: Busy start to the Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.
Post by: Blicj11 on July 13, 2016, 04:18:06 PM
Quote from: HantaYo on July 13, 2016, 06:19:14 AM
I'm still waiting for the wet May that was promised as well as the wet June that was not delivered.  I am figuring the NWS owes me about 6" of water content...

Amen. Here in the mountains of northern Utah we are, so far, experiencing the driest July in years. We have had the temperature drop to 33.5? F a couple of nights ago, but we can't seem to squeeze out any moisture after all that wet winter snow.
Title: Darby 3rd hurricane of season (Re: Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. )
Post by: elagache on July 13, 2016, 11:09:12 PM
Dear HantaYo, Blick, and WeatherCat drought sufferers . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Sorry to report it is hot and very dry here in northern California.  The wet winter is a distant memory and the plants are once more really suffering in the heat.  The lurking disturbance I mentioned has become hurricane Darby:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?5-daynl#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?5-daynl#contents)

However, these storms are all driving into the middle of the Pacific and dying out there.

For the moment, there doesn't appear to be much hope for any drought relief anywhere in the west.  :(

Edouard
Title: Like a conveyor belt (Re: Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. )
Post by: elagache on July 15, 2016, 10:53:55 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather monitors,

It is absolutely of no interest except for perhaps mariners in the region, but there is a new tropical depression in the Northern Eastern Pacific: SIX-E (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#SIX-E).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#SIX-E (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#SIX-E)

It sure is unfortunate that the Western United States isn't getting one drop of precipitation out of this conveyor belt.

Oh well, . . . . Edouard
Title: SIX-E now Estelle (Re: Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. )
Post by: elagache on July 16, 2016, 07:33:54 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme weather monitors,

The tropical depression SIX-E has already become tropical storm Estelle (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#ESTELLE) and there is a greater than 40% chance of yet another storm forming in about the same area:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac)

The forecast was only for 13-20 names storms in this area.  So we are somewhere between 25% and 33% of all the storms expected and hurricane season normally runs all the way to November.  So there is definitely something going on in this part of the world weather-wise that was not expected.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

P.S. In stark contrast, there is no cyclone activity expected at all in the Atlantic.
Title: Re: Busy start to the Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.
Post by: xairbusdriver on July 17, 2016, 12:22:01 AM
Quote
In stark contrast, there is no cyclone activity expected at all in the Atlantic.
That's because they only have hurricanes over there (and along the left coast up toward Alaska). The rest of the world has cyclones and typhoons, but that's not the Anglo-American way (Canada probably didn't get to vote). The Atlantic is their ocean and they'll call these storms what they want, thank you very much! Next thing we know, you'll be complaining about the winds being reported in knots and miles per hour, instead of kilometers per furlong! [rolleyes2] [banghead] :P [lol]
Title: Very quiet no matter what you call them (Re: Pacific Hurricane season.)
Post by: elagache on July 17, 2016, 08:16:23 PM
Dear X-Air and WeatherCat linguists . . .

Quote from: xairbusdriver on July 17, 2016, 12:22:01 AM
That's because they only have hurricanes over there (and along the left coast up toward Alaska). The rest of the world has cyclones and typhoons, but that's not the Anglo-American way (Canada probably didn't get to vote).

Well thanks to EarthDesk I can see the whole globe and whatever you want to call them they are extremely scarce at the moment.  There is a tropical depression called One (http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/indian) in the Indian Ocean and another depression called Three south of Japan.  I couldn't find any info on Three.

Definitely a boring time if you like hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons. . . .

Edouard  [cheers1]

P.S. To take advantage of Shakespeare: "A hurricane by any other name would be just as . . . destructive!"  [biggrin]
Title: Pacific: 6, Indian: 1, Atlantic: 0 !! (Re: Hurricane season. )
Post by: elagache on July 21, 2016, 10:59:44 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme tropical weather monitors,

Well the Northern Eastern Pacific was resting on its laurels for a while, but finally it has restarted the hurricane rookery.  This afternoon we have Tropical Storm Frank (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#FRANK)!  In addtion, there is a new tropical depression Eight-E (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#EIGHT-E).  In the meantime, cyclone Abela has already given up the ghost, so once more the Northern Eastern Pacific is the only region with active cyclonic activity.  So for everyone keeping score at home that makes it:


RegionStorm count
Northern Eastern Pacific:6
Indian Ocean:1
Atlantic0

 ;) . . . Stay tuned for more exciting updates on this fast paced competition!  [cheer]

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

P.S.  [wink] . . . . Ya' think creating cyclonic storms should be part of the Summer Olympics? . . . . .  [lol2]
Title: Eight-E is now Georgette . . . (Re: Hurricane season. )
Post by: elagache on July 22, 2016, 08:28:18 PM
Dear WeatherCat extreme tropical weather monitors,

The Northern Eastern Pacific is still cranking out tropical storms.  Tropical Depression Eight-E became Tropical Storm Georgette overnight.  It is certainly a very active weather pattern in that region of the Pacific.  I certainly would be interested if some sort of explanation especially with respect to El Ni?o and/or La Ni?a.

Stay tuned!

Cheers, Edouard
Title: Typhoon Nida
Post by: dfw_pilot on August 03, 2016, 07:47:20 AM
Just landed in Hong Kong a few hours after typhoon Nida swung through with a direct hit of the city. It made for interesting flying.
Title: Re: Busy start to the Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.
Post by: Bull Winkus on August 03, 2016, 03:59:54 PM
I'll bet it did! Did you have to crab land the runway in a cross wind?

 [cheers1]
Title: Re: Busy start to the Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.
Post by: xairbusdriver on August 03, 2016, 04:21:04 PM
Do they still use a lot of lashed bamboo poles for scaffolding?  :o

Quote
Did you have to crab land the runway in a cross wind?
He would have on the old runway, but they built a new airport on an island (a skill now used in other areas of the South China Sea). Now they just turn it, as needed, to align with the wind. [cheer]
Title: Crabby Crabbing
Post by: dfw_pilot on August 03, 2016, 06:21:11 PM
LOL! I wish they could turn the runways. That's the dirty little secret about carrier landings: though still a challenge, there is never a crosswind.

The new HKIA sits just north of Lantau Island. This causes a lot of problems with a strong southerly wind, because it whips up over the mountains and causes a lot of turbulence on short final. There are two parallel runways (7 L/R and 25 L/R) and the southerly runway of 7R/25L is often not used with strong southerly winds storming down the mountain side.

The strong winds and rain do help blow away all the old bamboo scaffolds and trash, so the city does get cleaned up a bit after :)

The 747, especially the new -8 model, will almost always land in, or with a bit of crab in a crosswind, because the underslung engines are massive, and would scrape the runway with the old "wing low" method. I think it's somewhere around 8-10 degrees on touchdown will give a pod strike on number 1 or 4. So, we crab all the way down and straighten it out on landing. The really good guys, who have a bit of spare mental capacity at 20 feet, squeeze a bit of rudder in to bring the nose around, while adding opposite aileron to keep the (now) faster wing from coming up. Wings must be level on touchdown.
Title: Still busy (Re: Northern Eastern Pacific Hurricane season.)
Post by: elagache on August 03, 2016, 11:59:41 PM
Dear dfw, Herb, X-Air, and WeatherCat extreme weather monitors,

In the meantime the Eastern Pacific is continuing to create new storms.  There is now the remains of tropical storm Howard and a new tropical storm Ivette:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac)

In the meantime the Caribbean has hurricane Earl:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc)

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]