Trixology
Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: HantaYo on January 27, 2016, 04:11:07 AM
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Just when I was complaining the local NWS lacked juicy, jaw grabbing forecasting meat to gnaw on, this on the Grand Junctions NWS forecast discussion:
THINGS GET
REALLY INTERESTING BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK AS ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A LOW THAT
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING EXPECTED. TRACKING
AND TIMING ISSUES PERSIST...SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW FIFTY
PERCENT. STAY TUNED AS WE LOCK ON TO THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS
COMPLEX WINTER STORM.
And the Pueblo NWS forecast discussion:
THEN...AS CLOSED LOW IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...EXPECT THAT
INCREASED POPS AND WINDS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM.
Maybe the tides of El Nino are about to shift to the southerly track [cold1]
Some play by play maps would be really nice though.
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Dear Jeff and WeatherCat drought watchers, . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)
Just when I was complaining the local NWS lacked juicy, jaw grabbing forecasting meat to gnaw on, this on the Grand Junctions NWS forecast discussion:
Definitely sounds promising!
We are supposed to go back to a more normal sort of rainy pattern. There is a moisture plume, but it is supposed to stay mostly to the north of us. Then we'll get another dry spell to start the work week. There is another chance of rain late next week. We'll see!
Cheers, Edouard
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Edouard,
Here is an update. I Better buy gas for the snow blower.
http://www.weather.gov/gjt/ARWinterStormendJanuary
http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=pub&embed=#.VqlMTFMrIUE
There is a moisture plume, but it is supposed to stay mostly to the north of us.
I am surprised with the northerly storm track so far this winter. Not typical but I guess this is not a typical El Nino.
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There is a moisture plume, but it is supposed to stay mostly to the north of us.
Wondering if this is the plume to hit Colorado? Or maybe it is the subtropical jet? Kinda thinking the moisture is coming from the plume north of you based on statements in the NWS bulletin.
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EXPECT THAT INCREASED POPS ... WILL DEVELOP
I'm only guessing that this is talking about Percentage Of Possible Snow? Somehow, I thought "POP" was short for Probability of Precipitation"! I suspect the capitol "S" is simply because the NWS always has the Caps Lock key set. [rolleyes2] So "POPS" is just the plural of "POP". As seen charts like:
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 40 57 35 46 / 10 10 20 10
CTB 39 50 33 39 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 29 44 29 40 / 10 10 20 40
...
HVR 30 52 31 43 / 0 10 20 20
LWT 33 51 30 39 / 0 10 30 20
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because the NWS always has the Caps Lock key set
You know, I never noticed that before. Wonder if it is a carry over from telegraphs and morse code [roll]
I'm only guessing that this is talking about Percentage Of Possible Snow? Somehow, I thought "POP" was short for Probability of Precipitation"! I suspect the capitol "S" is simply because the NWS always has the Caps Lock key set. [rolleyes2] So "POPS" is just the plural of "POP"
Found this tidbit here on POPS
The statistical output that comes from the computer models is known as "probability of precipitation." In weather-speak, we abbreviate it as PoP (and say Pops).
from ...http://www.wesh.com/weather/what-does-a-chance-of-rain-really-mean/31716602
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Thanks for the links/info, Hanta!
Speaking of "statistical output that comes from the computer models"... I think the local 'news' "weatherpeople" seem to take the worse possible model, thus they are usually wrong. But they don't get paid to be right, just to get/keep the ratings up. [rolleyes2]
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Here He comes [cold1] This storm is going somewhere. The Thousand $$$ question where will Ground Zero be???
http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=pub&embed=#.VqwpEDYrIUE
Stocked the porch and garage with wood; get extra gas tomorrow for the snow blower and go grocery shopping. The problem is when I get this excited about a storm it is a total bust [banghead] Ok, deep breath, relax; think Alburquerque Low, Alburquerque Low, Alburquerque Low [bed]
Speaking of "statistical output that comes from the computer models"... I think the local 'news' "weatherpeople" seem to take the worse possible model, thus they are usually wrong. But they don't get paid to be right, just to get/keep the ratings up.
I think you hit the nail on the coffin; just being wrong makes news in itself.
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Stocked the porch and garage with wood; get extra gas tomorrow for the snow blower and go grocery shopping. The problem is when I get this excited about a storm it is a total bust [banghead] Ok, deep breath, relax; think Alburquerque Low, Alburquerque Low, Alburquerque Low
The forecast for the west side of the Rockies on this one was a bust yesterday. Forecast called for 5-8 inches. We got 1. Today is also 5-8 inches. It is snowing so it might still happen. Let's hope. In spite of the Affordable HealthCare Act solving all of America's problems (sarcasm) we still desperately need water here in the West.
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The forecast for the west side of the Rockies on this one was a bust yesterday. Forecast called for 5-8 inches. We got 1. Today is also 5-8 inches. It is snowing so it might still happen. Let's hope. .....we still desperately need water here in the West.
Only started snowing tonight. Right now moderate snowfall with almost 1" in the last hour. Have to make a NWS storm report soon. Had what I call "Mountain Shadow" snow showers off/on most of the day with no accumulation. They keep upping the total snow amounts through Monday and we are up to 18" with heavy snow. I am of the mind set that you better get the precipitation in the West while you can...drought may only be a month away.
Stay Wet [snow]
Here is a pict from the back window:
(https://www.mu-43.com/media/january-storm2016january30.44136/full)
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Just 3 inches overnight BUT my local weather model, I call it AVIAN, indicates significant snowfall that will be measured by the foot. What, you may ask, is AVIAN. AVIAN is based on a bird species called Rosy Finches. They inhabit the alpine areas of Colorado and other states. Typically I get flocks of around 100 birds at my bird feeder. However, during strong storms, I can see flocks upwards to 700 birds. Just 400 birds today so maybe not a record breaking snowfall but likely significant.
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Dear Jeff and WeatherCat western US drought sufferers, (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)
Glad you are finally seeing some precip! Hope it keeps coming for you!
Cheers, Edouard [cheers1]
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15.4" of snow so far. I am thinking the low is too far north for much more snow. My AVIAN model was slightly off as it was indicating 2 feet of snow [biggrin]
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Dear Jeff and WeatherCat drought sufferers, . . .
15.4" of snow so far. I am thinking the low is too far north for much more snow. My AVIAN model was slightly off as it was indicating 2 feet of snow [biggrin]
Glad you got something out of this storm. Alas, indeed the storm track is too far north right now. Sure wish it sags back to the south soon.
Cheers, Edouard [cheers1]
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We got 16 inches out of the same storm and the snow is fairly wet so it is the storm type for which we have been praying.
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We got 16 inches out of the same storm and the snow is fairly wet so it is the storm type for which we have been praying.
Moisture was needed here as well. I believe the final snow total is 16.3"- the low has move to northern Kansas (50% chance of snow today but there are clear skies). 1.12" of water content. The storm just changed its easterly course and went to northeasterly track to create the upslope conditions for a REAL heavy snowfall for us.
Glad you got something out of this storm. Alas, indeed the storm track is too far north right now. Sure wish it sags back to the south soon.
The northerly storm track really surprises me. I wonder if this is what the climate models are showing with global warming? I have read that El Nino like conditions will become permanent. Maybe this new El Nino will be unlike historical patterns.
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Dear Blick and WeatherCat drought sufferers,
We got 16 inches out of the same storm and the snow is fairly wet so it is the storm type for which we have been praying.
Does it appear that a "storm door" of sorts has opened for you? At the moment the storm door seems closed for California, so I hope somebody is getting some benefit out of this.
Cheers, Edouard
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Does it appear that a "storm door" of sorts has opened for you? At the moment the storm door seems closed for California, so I hope somebody is getting some benefit out of this.
We received 71 inches of snow in December containing 2.88 inches of water. The previous year in December we received 38 inches of snow containing 2.19 inches of water. Comparing January 2016 to January 2105 is similar. Way more snow and more water. So far, this winter is shaping up nicely as a means of recharging our lakes and springs. The El Nińo impact appears to be real here in the mountains.