Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on January 01, 2016, 11:23:58 PM

Title: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2016
Post by: elagache on January 01, 2016, 11:23:58 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Temperature_outlook_Jan-2016.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Temperature_outlook_Jan-Mar-2016.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Jan-2016.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Jan-Mar-2016.gif)

If these forecast prove true, then El Ni?o should provide a substantial drought relief for the American south west.

Edouard

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2016
Post by: HantaYo on January 12, 2016, 02:49:21 PM

Liking the 3 month outlook; January is shaping up to be dry it appears.  Looks good for California [cheers1]

Title: Still no drought-buster thus far (Re: NWS - CPC - Winter 2016)
Post by: elagache on January 13, 2016, 12:24:14 AM

Dear Jeff and WeatherCat drought watchers, . . 

Quote from: HantaYo on January 12, 2016, 02:49:21 PM

Liking the 3 month outlook; January is shaping up to be dry it appears.  Looks good for California [cheers1]

The current weather pattern in California remains unusual.  It isn't a El Ni?o pattern.  We've only gotten that one storm that had the sub-tropical jet to really deliver the moisture.  On the other hand we are getting moderate winter storms after 1-3 days.   Those storms aren't enough to break the drought.  In fact we are barely keeping up with the normal rainfall for January.

We'll just have to see if El Ni?o finally does become a major factor in the weather this winter.

Cheers, Edouard

Title: February's predictions (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2016)
Post by: elagache on February 02, 2016, 12:51:23 AM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

There is a strange twist to the latest climate predictions from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the 6 to 10 day precipitation:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-6-10-day-2016.gif)

This is about as different from the previous forecasts as you can get and would signal a return to the drought in the west.

The 8 to 14 day forecast isn't so negative:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-8-14-day-2016.gif)

This forecast still insists on drought conditions continuing for the southern 1/3 of the United States.

Returning to the usual material for this thread, here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Temperature_outlook_Feb-2016.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for February through April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Temperature_outlook_Feb-Apr-2016.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for February:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-2016.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for February to April:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Feb-Apr-2016.gif)

These forecasts look more consistent with El Ni?o, and if true, should continue the pattern of needed rainfall for a good portion of the drought stricken west.

Edouard

Title: March's predictions (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Winter 2016)
Post by: elagache on March 02, 2016, 11:09:28 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here are the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Temperature_outlook_Mar-2016.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for March through May:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Temperature_outlook_Mar-May-2016.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for March:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Mar-2016.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for March to May:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Winter%202016/Precipitation_outlook_Mar-May-2016.gif)

These forecasts look more consistent with El Ni?o, and if true, should bring back the pattern of needed rainfall for a good portion of the drought stricken west.

Edouard