Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on August 14, 2015, 09:53:47 PM

Title: Looks like a record year for El Ni?o . . . hype
Post by: elagache on August 14, 2015, 09:53:47 PM

Dear WeatherCat El Ni?o watchers,

You may have seen a flurry of news headlines like this Newsweek report:

http://www.newsweek.com/el-nino-record-year-363108 (http://www.newsweek.com/el-nino-record-year-363108)

Whenever I see reports like this I . . . . look for the facts.  The facts in this case are heading over to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (Enso) Diagnostic Discussion:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html)

The report for August is very similar to the report for July.  The key point being:

Quote

There is a greater than 90% chance that El Ni?o will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016.

Researchers aren't making any claims of a monster El Ni?o here.

Considering these are predictions not phenomena that is already happening, these reports should be taken with appropriate caution.  The correct thing to do is try to plan for both possibilities.  Those affected by  El Ni?o need to start doing their preparations now, but also need to be concerned with the possibility that we won't have the weather normally associated with El Ni?o.  For all our science, ultimately we find ourselves less certain about the climate in the future.

Edouard

Title: Re: Looks like a record year for El Ni?o . . . hype
Post by: Randall75 on August 15, 2015, 12:10:18 AM

Hi Edouard

Quote

For all our science, ultimately we find ourselves less certain about the climate in the future.

We would be rich if we could forecast the weather in the future lol


cheers


 [cheers1]

Title: Re: Looks like a record year for El Ni?o . . . hype
Post by: HantaYo on August 15, 2015, 01:53:14 AM

I am gassing  up the snow blower and hoping for a white Columbus Day [cold1]  Mother nature owes me for the so far dismal summer  [banghead]

Title: Re: Looks like a record year for El Ni?o . . . hype
Post by: Blicj11 on August 15, 2015, 06:24:58 AM

Quote from: elagache on August 14, 2015, 09:53:47 PM

There is a greater than 90% chance that El Ni?o will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016. *

*Weather not included.

Title: Grim Almanac forecast (Re: Looks like a record year for El Ni?o . . . hype)
Post by: elagache on August 15, 2015, 11:01:41 PM

Dear Randall, HantaYo, Blick, and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Quote from: HantaYo on August 15, 2015, 01:53:14 AM

I am gassing  up the snow blower and hoping for a white Columbus Day [cold1]  Mother nature owes me for the so far dismal summer  [banghead]

You can say that again.  Total rainfall this summer: 0.29" . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

The Old Farmer's Almanac is about to hit the streets and we have been given a sneak preview of the climate forecasts:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/super-cold-slew-snow-farmers-almanac-forecast-33104558 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/super-cold-slew-snow-farmers-almanac-forecast-33104558)

It is a real nightmare for most of the United States.  Once more a lot of cold and snow next winter and the exact same scenario for the west.  A very wet early winter and then, more drought . . . . . (http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/Custom_emoticons/desert-smiley.gif)

Sure hope this forecast is wrong!  :o

Edouard