Trixology

Weather => General Weather Discussion => Topic started by: elagache on June 04, 2015, 01:16:19 AM

Title: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2015
Post by: elagache on June 04, 2015, 01:16:19 AM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for June:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Temperature_outlook_June-2015.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for June through August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Temperature_outlook_June-Aug-2015.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for June:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Precipitation_outlook_June-2015.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for June to August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Precipitation_outlook_June-Aug-2015.gif)

Definitely not a encouraging forecast for the plains considering all the flooding that has already occurred.

Edouard

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2014
Post by: HantaYo on June 04, 2015, 04:09:37 AM

I am liking all that green [thunder]

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2014
Post by: LesCimes on June 04, 2015, 06:16:49 PM

That green does look good, but poor California - no green out there!

Title: Only hope monsoonal flow (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2014)
Post by: elagache on June 04, 2015, 09:23:41 PM

Dear HantaYo, LesCimes, and WeatherCat drought watchers,

Quote from: LesCimes on June 04, 2015, 06:16:49 PM

That green does look good, but poor California - no green out there!

California traditionally gets no rain at all in the summer, so it should be no surprise that the CPC folks aren't expecting any.  However, the CPC has been consistently forecasting a massive ridge of high pressure which would be necessary for that spike in higher temperatures starting in May and now forecast all the way through August.

Just one small problem with that forecast, we haven't see such a ridge in years.  Instead, there has been a fairly consistent thermal low over coastal northern California.  This sort of a pattern has allowed monsoonal moisture to come up in northern California.  Alas, reaching the coast is extremely unlikely because of the overland route such moisture has to take.

Still, it came close to occurring a few times last year, perhaps this year we'll actually get some showers.  There is a phenomena similar to this happening this weekend, but once more the rain isn't suppose to reach the San Francisco bay area.

Oh well, . . . Edouard 

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2014
Post by: HantaYo on June 06, 2015, 04:11:17 AM

June is one of our driest months  as well.  Moisture picks up with the monsoons in July and August.

Title: July's climate forecasts (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2015)
Post by: elagache on July 01, 2015, 09:46:25 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Temperature_outlook_July-2015.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Temperature_outlook_July-Sept-2015.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Precipitation_outlook_July-2015.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Precipitation_outlook_July-Sept-2015.gif)

You'all can applaud or groan depending on whether this is good news or bad for you . . . .

Edouard

P.S. I'm definitely curious to know if these temperature climate forecasts are looking accurate for anybody else in the WeatherCat world - opinions?

Title: Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2014
Post by: Bull Winkus on July 02, 2015, 10:38:31 PM

Can't say here, Edouard. Ask me again in December.  [tup]

If the past 6 months is any clue, it looks spot on with 'will continue as is.'

  [rain2] [mostlycloudy] [mostlysunny] [mostlycloudy] [rain2] [mostlycloudy] [mostlysunny] [mostlycloudy] [rain2] [mostlycloudy] [mostlysunny] [mostlycloudy] [rain2] [mostlycloudy] [mostlysunny]

Title: August's climate forecasts (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2015)
Post by: elagache on August 03, 2015, 09:20:07 PM

Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Sorry, I'm a few days late here, but here is the latest 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Temperature_outlook_August-2015.gif)

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Temperature_outlook_Aug-Oct-2015.gif)

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Precipitation_outlook_August-2015.gif)

Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:

(http://www.canebas.org/WeatherCat/Forum_support_documents/NWS-CPC%20Forecasts%20Summer%202015/Precipitation_outlook_Aug-Oct-2015.gif)

These forecasts certainly aren't showing any El Ni?o benefit for northern California into at least October.

Edouard