Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2019  (Read 187 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2019
« on: October 02, 2019, 10:33:18 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Autumn is a few days old and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start to the season.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



I'm not sure what to make of this colder than normal of the Pacific Northwest and warmer than normal for the Southeast.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



This is back to the "hot everywhere" forecast that we periodically see.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Like last month, there is considerably uncertainty.  Alas, there is a clear prediction of below normal rainfall for the Southeast.

Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



Rainfall is favored for the center of the country and the Atlantic seaboard.  Much of the rest of the country is in that curious "Equal Chance" state.  Alas, the region around the California Oregon border is expected to receive below normal rainfall.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



Drought is expected to develop across much of the southern states from one ocean to the other.  The 3 month outlook continues this trend:



Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These come only monthly.  Here is the updated October:



This forecast follows the rainfall predictions with the continued risks in California.    Here is the November outlook.



California continues to be at risk along with large belt of the South.  Here is December:



Finally, the fire risks retreat only to Southern California.  The South is expected to continue to be at risk because of the lack of rainfall.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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November's forecast (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2019)
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2019, 09:43:33 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

It is the first of November and here are the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the middle of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



It is a curious forecast where the west is clearly expected to be warm while much the rest of the country is expected to be colder..

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



This is back to the "hot everywhere" forecast that we periodically see.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Like last month, there is considerably uncertainty.  Alas, parts of the west as well as parts of the Midwest are expected to be below normal.

Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



Once more there is a large band of above normal rainfall expected.  Alas, Northern California and the region around the mouth of the Mississippi river are expected to receive below normal rainfall.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for November:



There is a large region of drought expected to persist around the 4-corners region.  The 3 month outlook continues this trend:



In addition to the 4-corners region, parts of Texas are expected to experience continued drought.  A drought is expected in Northern California as a result of the diminished rainfall.

Here are the Wildfire predictions.  These come from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  These come only monthly.  Here is the updated November:



This forecast follows the rainfall predictions with the continued risks through much of California.    Here is the December's outlook.



Central and southern California continues to be at risk while the rest of the country is normal or at a lower risk than normal.  Here is January:



It isn't until January that the increased risk from wildfires finally disappears in California.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

elagache

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December's forecast (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2019)
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2019, 12:00:31 AM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

December has arrived and here are the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of Autumn and start of Winter.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



This is back to the "mostly warmer everywhere" theme that is typical of the Climate Prediction Center.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



This doesn't look as extreme, but "Equal Chance" means there is only a 1/3 chance of below normal temperatures.  So it is closer to a "warm everywhere" forecast with simply more probabilistic caution.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



This also has the curious large bands of equal chance.  It appears that California can expect more atmospheric river events.  Also the Midwest can expect more rain.  Texas and Florida are curiously expecting below normal rains.

Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



Once more there is a large band of above normal rainfall expected.  Alas, Northern California and the region around the mouth of the Mississippi river are expected to receive below normal rainfall.  At least in California, this is consistent with droughts where the middle of Winter is unusually dry.

On to drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for December:



There is a large region of drought expected to persist around the 4-corners region.  Texas and Florida are expected to slip into drought as well. The 3 month outlook mostly continues this trend:



In addition to the 4-corners region, parts of Texas are expected to experience continued drought.  A drought is expected in Northern California as a result of the diminished rainfall.

I checked the wildfire predictions from the NICC - National Interagency Coordination Center.  They show normal or below normal risk of wildfires.  So I decided we could omit these until the status changes.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard