Author Topic: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here  (Read 64 times)

xairbusdriver

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2303
    • EW7115 (E7115)
    • KTNGERMA20
    • Mid-South Weather
  • Station Details: Davis VP2 wireless + remote Anemometer/2014 Mac min - 10.14.4/WC 3.0.4
Mark your calendars! It’s been almost 40 years since the model got a new core. Scott K. Johnson, Ars Technica - 6/12/2019, 2:00 PM

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 3201
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Utah
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP™ Data Logger | iMac (late 2013), 3.5 GHz Intel Core i7, 24 GB RAM, macOS Mojave | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | Supportive Wife
Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2019, 03:59:57 PM »
Only been out a day and some are already complaining. Regarding the new model, I say it's about time and I'm looking forward to drawing my own conclusions in the coming months.
Blick


xairbusdriver

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2303
    • EW7115 (E7115)
    • KTNGERMA20
    • Mid-South Weather
  • Station Details: Davis VP2 wireless + remote Anemometer/2014 Mac min - 10.14.4/WC 3.0.4
Re: The long-awaited upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2019, 09:46:33 PM »
Some interesting comments from "weather consumers" that indicate confusion between forecasts and actual weather events. Apparently, using "percentages" creates expectations that things (forecast events) will actually happen. Some people think a local thunderstorm, even one that is a dozen miles wide will create rain for the entire state or at least their entire county! [rolleyes2] To many, a "70% chance of rain" seems to mean it will rain for 70% of the day! [banghead] It's no wonder that lots of people can't understand the difference between climate and weather... :o

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 5233
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, Mac mini (2018), macOS 10.14.3, WeatherCat 3
Dear X-Air, Blick, and WeatherCat observers of forecast technology,

Mark your calendars! It’s been almost 40 years since the model got a new core. Scott K. Johnson, Ars Technica - 6/12/2019, 2:00 PM

Thanks for the pointer.  It is interesting that the consensus view continues to hold that the European model does a better job.  In watching the forecasts, I've also come to take the European model more seriously if there is a conflict.

Some interesting comments from "weather consumers" that indicate confusion between forecasts and actual weather events. Apparently, using "percentages" creates expectations that things (forecast events) will actually happen. Some people think a local thunderstorm, even one that is a dozen miles wide will create rain for the entire state or at least their entire county! [rolleyes2] To many, a "70% chance of rain" seems to mean it will rain for 70% of the day! [banghead] It's no wonder that lots of people can't understand the difference between climate and weather... :o

Sad but true.  Unfortunately, how weather statistics are supposed to be used isn't particularly well explained to the public.  I just made a quick search for such an explanation and failed.  Can anybody else find a reference that we could point someone to if needed?

In general, statistics is a very slippery subject that desperately few people understand. It isn't covered in high school and isn't required of all college graduates.  Yet many of the decisions the general public make today require some understanding of statistics - just how is the public supposed to do this?  ???

Indeed we live in "curious" times . . . . . . .

Cheers, Edouard