Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019  (Read 37 times)


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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019
« on: January 01, 2019, 10:11:35 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

The new year has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for January:

This prediction is back to the typical above normal theme that is found on these predictions.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for January through March:

All I can say is "ditto."  Only regions of the South might be colder than normal.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for January:

This prediction isn't nearly as optimistic for the western United States as the previous predictions.  While the Southwest gets some El Niño benefit, the rest remains uncertain.  Once more there is a prediction of increased rain in the old South.

Here is the equivalent graph for January to March:

The increased rain in the Southwest deserts is consistent with El Niño.  I don't know what is the basis for the rain continuing across the rest of the South into the Atlantic seaboard.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for January:

This prediction is of significant reversals into drought for a large swath of the West.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:

This predicts continued hardship for Oregon and the Arizona New Mexico boarder regions.  The remainder of the regions are supposed to see an improvement in their drought situations.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 



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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Winter 2019
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2019, 03:51:47 AM »
Today's low temperature here was -13°F (-25°C), so the first day of the new forecast period started in the opposite direction of the forecast.