Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018  (Read 302 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018
« on: October 01, 2018, 11:04:22 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

October 1st has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



This prediction is very different than those we have seen for many months.  We shall have to see if these two regions of below normal temperatures come to pass.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



This is a more "typical" temperature prediction from the Climate Prediction Center.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Amazingly only the Pacific Northwest is expected to have below normal rainfall.  The rest of the country is either above or equal chance for any possible outcome.

Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



The increased rain in the Southwest deserts is consistent with El Niño.  I don't know what is the basis for the rain continuing across the rest of the South into the Atlantic seaboard.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



This predication continues to trends of the previous months.  Once more there is an expectation of some drought relief in a narrow band of Arizona and Utah and nearby regions.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



Oddly the relief for Arizona and Utah is expected to be wiped out by drought returning later this year.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 02:01:44 AM »
We are forecast to receive a lot of rain starting tomorrow, with flash flooding concerns in the recent burn scar areas of the mountains and canyons. They are forecasting rain for about a week from Hurricane Rosa, and then snow following all the rain. One more data point is the wildfire outlook.
Blick


elagache

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Dear Blick and WeatherCat users who have to cope with whatever is thrown at them,

We are forecast to receive a lot of rain starting tomorrow, with flash flooding concerns in the recent burn scar areas of the mountains and canyons. They are forecasting rain for about a week from Hurricane Rosa, and then snow following all the rain.

Sorry that you are in harm's way of Hurricane Rosa.  I would have gladly taken some of that rain off your hands, but it appears just about all of it will miss Northern California.

One more data point is the wildfire outlook.

Interesting!  I wasn't aware of this information.  I'm guessing it is from the National Interagency Fire Center:

https://www.nifc.gov/

These outlooks are to be found here - correct?

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

It is a little late in the dry season to worry about wildfires - I hope!  However, I'll try to add these to the climate outlooks for the dry season next year.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

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Interesting!  I wasn't aware of this information.  I'm guessing it is from the National Interagency Fire Center:

https://www.nifc.gov/

These outlooks are to be found here - correct?

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

Correct Edouard. They predict wildfire risk each month for the following three months.
Blick


elagache

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November's outlooks (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2018)
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 09:55:51 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

November 1st has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for this period of the year.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for November:



This prediction returns to above normal temperatures for the Western parts of the United States.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for November through January:



This is a more "typical" temperature prediction from the Climate Prediction Center.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for November:



Like last month, only a narrow patch of the Pacific Northwest is expected to have below normal rainfall.  The rest of the country is either above or equal chance for any possible outcome.

Here is the equivalent graph for November to January:



This is consistent with the forecast of last month.

Since Wildfire season doesn't appear to be over at least in California, I decided to start including the Wildfire outlook this month:



Given that the current forecast shows no rain for Northern California through mid-November, my suspicion is that this outlook is more optimistic than the circumstances warrant.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for November:



This proposes drought intensifying in the 4-corners region and Oregon.  This is a reversal from last month.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



This also reverses from last month proposing some drought relief for Arizona and New Mexico.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 01:26:33 AM »
I always appreciate you posting these. I don't always like what they depict.
Blick


elagache

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I hear ya' brother! (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2018)
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 10:10:59 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat folks coping with what weather throws at them,

I don't always like what they depict.

Alas, I'll sadly second that motion.  Definitely hard times in the United States Western states. . . .

Oh well,
. . . Edouard

elagache

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December's outlooks (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Autumn 2018)
« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2018, 10:07:45 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

December 1st has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for this period of the year.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for December:



This prediction is typical except for "hole" of colder temperatures around Utah.  I do hope that Blick's heater has been serviced this year!  [freeze]

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for December through February:



In the West this is a more "typical" temperature prediction from the Climate Prediction Center.  The rest of the country is left in a state of "Equal Chance."

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for December:



This prediction is different and apparently has something to do with El Niño.  Nonetheless most of the country is either expected to have above normal precipitation or an equal chance.

Here is the equivalent graph for December to February:



While not as optimistic, much of the country is once more either above normal or an equal chance.  Only the great lakes would get below normal preciptation.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for December:



This proposes drought intensifying in Oregon, Utah, and Colorado.  That seems a bit odd given the precipitation outlook.  Other areas like California are expecting some relief. 

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The only real shift is an expectation of improving conditions for coastal Oregon.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2018, 10:37:10 AM »
We have so far received almost 4 times as much snow here as we did last year in the period Sept - Dec so these above average precipitation forecasts have been accurate. Thankfully.
Blick