Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018  (Read 55 times)

elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4930
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Early 2011), macOS 10.13.6, WeatherCat 3
NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018
« on: October 01, 2018, 11:04:22 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

October 1st has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Autumn.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for October:



This prediction is very different than those we have seen for many months.  We shall have to see if these two regions of below normal temperatures come to pass.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for October through December:



This is a more "typical" temperature prediction from the Climate Prediction Center.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for October:



Amazingly only the Pacific Northwest is expected to have below normal rainfall.  The rest of the country is either above or equal chance for any possible outcome.

Here is the equivalent graph for October to December:



The increased rain in the Southwest deserts is consistent with El Niño.  I don't know what is the basis for the rain continuing across the rest of the South into the Atlantic seaboard.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for October:



This predication continues to trends of the previous months.  Once more there is an expectation of some drought relief in a narrow band of Arizona and Utah and nearby regions.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



Oddly the relief for Arizona and Utah is expected to be wiped out by drought returning later this year.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2971
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Utah
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP™ Data Logger | iMac (late 2013), 3.5 GHz Intel Core i7, 24 GB RAM, macOS High Sierra | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | Supportive Wife
Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Autumn 2018
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 02:01:44 AM »
We are forecast to receive a lot of rain starting tomorrow, with flash flooding concerns in the recent burn scar areas of the mountains and canyons. They are forecasting rain for about a week from Hurricane Rosa, and then snow following all the rain. One more data point is the wildfire outlook.
Blick


elagache

  • Global Moderator
  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 4930
    • DW3835
    • KCAORIND10
    • Canebas Weather
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro-2, MacBook Pro (Early 2011), macOS 10.13.6, WeatherCat 3
Dear Blick and WeatherCat users who have to cope with whatever is thrown at them,

We are forecast to receive a lot of rain starting tomorrow, with flash flooding concerns in the recent burn scar areas of the mountains and canyons. They are forecasting rain for about a week from Hurricane Rosa, and then snow following all the rain.

Sorry that you are in harm's way of Hurricane Rosa.  I would have gladly taken some of that rain off your hands, but it appears just about all of it will miss Northern California.

One more data point is the wildfire outlook.

Interesting!  I wasn't aware of this information.  I'm guessing it is from the National Interagency Fire Center:

https://www.nifc.gov/

These outlooks are to be found here - correct?

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

It is a little late in the dry season to worry about wildfires - I hope!  However, I'll try to add these to the climate outlooks for the dry season next year.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]

Blicj11

  • Storm
  • *****
  • Posts: 2971
    • EW3808
    • KUTHEBER6
    • Timber Lakes Utah
  • Station Details: Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus | WeatherLinkIP™ Data Logger | iMac (late 2013), 3.5 GHz Intel Core i7, 24 GB RAM, macOS High Sierra | Sharx SCNC2900 Webcam | Supportive Wife
Interesting!  I wasn't aware of this information.  I'm guessing it is from the National Interagency Fire Center:

https://www.nifc.gov/

These outlooks are to be found here - correct?

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

Correct Edouard. They predict wildfire risk each month for the following three months.
Blick