Author Topic: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2018  (Read 164 times)

elagache

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NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2018
« on: July 01, 2018, 10:35:35 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

Summer is here and here is the first 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for July:



This sure seems like a broken record to me, but there it is for what it is worth.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for July through September:



What can I say but ditto. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for July:



This is more interesting since it suggests a more active hurricane season both in the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic.

Here is the equivalent graph for July to September:



This graph suggests the overall trend of more active hurricane activity would last through the Summer.  However, there would be below normal rains in the Pacific Northwest.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for July:



The monsoonal rains for the Southwest deserts is expected to provide some relief in Arizona.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The season outlook suggests that New Mexico would also benefit from the monsoonal rains.  On the other hand drought would persist in many areas including Southeastern Oregon.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2018
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2018, 09:54:26 AM »
Thanks for posting. These forecast usually give me hope, but often, not much else. We have just finished our driest June since we moved here and could sure use some rain.
Blick


elagache

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August's predications (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2018)
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2018, 11:24:25 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

August 1st has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the start of Summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for August:



Oddly, this suggests that the high pressure that normally is at the 4-corners region would move into Southern California.  That would definitely bad news since July has already seen some of this.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for August through October:



This suggests the same high pressure would move north and back east a bit.  That is unusual for that high pressure. 

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for August:



Like last month, it suggests a more active hurricane season both in the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic.  However, last month's forecast didn't really pan out.

Here is the equivalent graph for August to October:



This graph suggests the overall trend of more active hurricane activity would last through the Summer.  However, there would be below normal rains in the Pacific Northwest.  Once more the question remains whether or not it will indeed occur.

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for August:



This predication continues to trends of the past 2 months.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The season outlook suggests that the 4-corners would benefit from the monsoonal rains.  On the other hand drought would persist in many areas including Southeastern Oregon.  It expands the droughts into Texas and essentially all of Washington state as well.  Certainly that is something that does not exactly fit the "Evergreen state."

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2018
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2018, 11:57:52 PM »
Thanks for posting. The drought conditions are making us all nervous in the west.
Blick


elagache

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September's predications (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2018)
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2018, 10:39:07 PM »
Dear WeatherCat climate watchers,

September 1st has arrived and here is the 1 month and 3 month forecasts from the National Weather Service - Climate Predication Center for the end of Summer.  Here is the one month forecasts of departures from normal temperatures for September:



This is another "hot almost everywhere" sort of forecast.  We shall see.

Here is the equivalent 3 months predictions of temperatures departures from normal for September through November:



The same point applies for the 3 month forecast as the 1 month.

Here are the precipitation predictions of departures from normal for September:



There is an odd swath from New Mexico to the Great Lakes with above normal rainfall.  New Mexico could be monsoonal but that shouldn't travel that far Northeast.  The other oddity is the greater chance of rain along the Eastern seaboard and gulf coasts.  That might be expected if the hurricane season was active, but the odds of that has just been decreased significantly.  Much of the country is under "equal chance" condition which usually implies the models are not having a strong inclination for the overall climate trends.  The notable dry area is the Pacific Northwest.  That's going to hurt since it isn't area used to droughts.

Here is the equivalent graph for September to November:



This time there is an odd region for increased rainfall around Arizona and Utah.  This might be some expectation of El Niño effects.  Florida is also expected to be especially wet.  More hurricane activity?  Alas the rain is expected to continue to be short in the Pacific Northwest.  That is also consistent with El Niño

Here are drought forecasts.  Here is the drought outlook for September:



This predication continues to trends of the past 2 months.

Here is the equivalent 3 month outlook:



The overall trend is similar with the possible exception of a possible El Niño bounty.

As usual, Like it or not, such are the forecasts we are facing . . . . 

Edouard

Blicj11

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Re: NWS - Climate Prediction Center forecasts - Summer 2018
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2018, 08:41:20 PM »
Interesting to note that temperatures in the west are forecast to be higher than normal but precipitation is also forecast to be higher than normal. That would be an unusual combination as the overall climate starts to transition into winter, at least where I live.
Blick


elagache

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El Niño prediction? (Re: NWS - CPC forecasts - Summer 2018)
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2018, 09:13:42 PM »
Dear Blick and WeatherCat climate watchers,

Interesting to note that temperatures in the west are forecast to be higher than normal but precipitation is also forecast to be higher than normal. That would be an unusual combination as the overall climate starts to transition into winter, at least where I live.

I understand your observations, but this could be once more an expectation of an El Niño event.  Warmer ocean waters could bring more moisture into the western part of the United States.  Unfortunately, that isn't what happened during the previous El Niño event.  Since these forecasts don't provide any explanation for why their models are making these predictions we are really left in the dark.  Nonetheless, these models are supposed to be updated for the current status of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, so these are most most scientific forecasts we have access to.

If you want an alternative, the farmers almanacs are supposed to be out soon.  Alas, if the news reports are correct, they contradict each other. So taken together, the almanacs do not offer a consistent alternative.

Cheers, Edouard  [cheers1]